Joyous Legion

Few hours. Studios will report some dailies first (disseminated via the numbers and Twitter)

Probably not, but not too much of an ask either.

Yeah, BOP is right to note that they beat all other public forecasts (though I think BOR is also pretty decent, they don't do long range and get the wknd forecasts up late Th). And that they're working with an earlier deadline than e.g. derby players, which is a natural handicap. I think for holdovers, small openers, and medium openers they operate at near practical maximum efficiency. For big openers, this thread and our extrapolations from it have been doing even better, comparing same point in time to same point in time. I'm not too sympathetic to the "2021 is a mulligan" argument since: 1)To the extent that 2021 was extra difficult, we are comparing predictions for 2021 movies to other predictions for 2021 movies, so even playing field. 2) 2021 mostly followed normal trends anyway for big movies, which mostly didn't release until more normalcy in 2H 2021. Pandemic-making-everything-sui-generis-and-incomparable ended up a little overblown considering how good our results were despite that. It will be interesting to see if we continue to outperform in 2022 -- if so (and I expect so, full disclosure), I think putting a little weight here is a seriously reasonable suggestion 😛 @Shawn, so I'm not talking behind your back ;)

Through the end of week 10, NWH is 53.2% of the market since it opened, with a lead of just 93M on the rest. This week it will earn ~ 7M and the rest of the market ~ 70M, so it will fall on Batman OD for sure after 77 days. Let's see if Batman can go 28+ -- seems like a good chance with the way March looks.

Like I said, a strong Saturday ow bodies well for Sat this weekend. On the same calendar Sonic spun its 6.36 Fri into a 26.2 wknd (4.1x) off a 88% Sat increase. Uncharted also seems to be playing fairly kid/family so far, so I would expect at least 6 10 6.5 from 6

Pretty solid bump there, big Q is how much the partial holiday week damps down the Sat bump. OW had a big Sat bump though. Thinking 23-26ish.

This is my main complaint with you guys tbh 😛 But at least that’s explicit, not sure if I’d heard that before. Although, that does make the Batman range extra 🤔

Man, they just gave a very high range. They are *counting on* those, not failing t account for them!

Going to have a big impact on the BO of Ukraine, yeah. Maybe Russia, Poland, other bordering countries slightly? UK probably not.

Been thinking about this for a while — I know that presentation real estate isn’t free, but I think a “final tickets sold” column could be pretty useful @Porthos. Makes it much easier to tell at a glance how many were sold from the present day to the end compared to how many have been sold recently, and what the implications will be if it runs at X% pace.

😎

Between drive-ins and art houses should easily set the pandemic record. Maybe actuals in the 4400s?

Lmao, what? No. Just no.

Well, the first thing is to look at the weekly multiplier, not the raw gross. Might also want to consider lining up the calendars rather than just using weeks after release. I have been comparing to TFA, Avatar, ROTK, JWTTJ, and Frozen at this point though there isn’t anything objectively correct about them, just a handful of well legging releases from a similar point in the calendar. 10th weekend ranks, to wit (this is from BOM, so not removal of silly limited expansion stuff): NWH 11th TFA 65th Avatar 2nd rotk 101st jwwtj 29th frozen 6th

The NWH tues was a lot better than I had expected. I think there’s some kind of $2 super extra discount Tuesday at play so wed/tues may look extra harsh — I’d look at wed/mon or wed/sat drops instead. @TwoMisfits can confirm/deny/elaborate

What does this have to do with anything Endgame’s 9th week was less than 30% of NWH’s

agree mostly good but Nile and Marry Me are par or probably under

Yeah it’s baffling. If you wanna be sad about Ukraine we have threads for that, but the idea that it will somehow affect the BO is historically ridiculous.

What would that possibly have to do with Batman

Numbers get posted when there are new ones, usually Friday if we get some weekly cumes reported or sun/mon for wknd estimates and then actuals. It’s fine to chat about past or future performance in the market when it isn’t interrupting that.

Avatar 1 only did 94 so I don't really see why 2 would go above 80M

One week update: stand pat

Yeah. I think a 45 day window is pretty clear, but I also doubt it matters much. Overlap between people who would go OW and those who wanna wait 45 days is probably pretty small.

Fwiw this is like 5.75-6.25 whereas I gave 5-6.25. If I had to pin down a narrower window maybe like 5.3-5.8 for me, still thinking Sat single digits rather than the almost 30% here.

Oh my GOD the pedantry. Kilar is extremely clear in that quote that it’s coming on day 46.