Quite frankly, it’s surprising that omicron took this long. It’s pretty clearly past the containment phase now, probably gonna rack up over 500M infections on the next couple months, reaching every region. Depending on the attempted government+Societal response could pretty much wipe out BO until June.
To formalize this observation a bit:
NWH Sat %
Dog %
uncharted %
nwh%/dog%
Nwh%/uncharted%
3/12/22
169.8%
164.9%
3/5/22
192.0%
170.0%
164.0%
113%
117%
2/26/22
212.0%
193.0%
181.0%
110%
117%
2/19/22
182.0%
147.8%
139.4%
123%
131%
Sat bumps are weaker OW, so I wouldn’t pay too much mind to 2/19. The other two are pretty consistent. Uncharted and dog are identical bumps as last Sat per EC’s latest updates, so Occam’s razor suggest 92% for NWH for 1.84M. That would be disappointing without the snow but with it, harder to judge. I would hope for perhaps a 25% Sun drop to a 4.2M wknd (7% drop) but more conservatively perhaps 4.1M (9% drop).
Mostly a fight between @Sandro Mazzola and I that will hinge on scream, dog, NWH, sing, JA. Expecting XXR in 3rd. Snowstorm could shake things up from these ests though.
Might be more competition next weekend than you think. JJK and X both look pretty wide (like 2500ish?), Umma and The Outfit might combine to like 1500 locs, and it seems like a lot of BP nominees will get re-expanded again. Batman should still rule the roost in shows of course but it might combine to be more opener and expansion competition than on e.g. Feb 25, 11, 4, or even Jan 14 or Mar 25th.
I know I mentioned earlier that we didn’t have my owrfect comps, and we are in the slow boring middle section. But the last few days feel especially slow. Maybe the half dozen sneak days will help from WoM 😂