Yeah, BOP is right to note that they beat all other public forecasts (though I think BOR is also pretty decent, they don't do long range and get the wknd forecasts up late Th). And that they're working with an earlier deadline than e.g. derby players, which is a natural handicap. I think for holdovers, small openers, and medium openers they operate at near practical maximum efficiency.
For big openers, this thread and our extrapolations from it have been doing even better, comparing same point in time to same point in time. I'm not too sympathetic to the "2021 is a mulligan" argument since:
1)To the extent that 2021 was extra difficult, we are comparing predictions for 2021 movies to other predictions for 2021 movies, so even playing field.
2) 2021 mostly followed normal trends anyway for big movies, which mostly didn't release until more normalcy in 2H 2021. Pandemic-making-everything-sui-generis-and-incomparable ended up a little overblown considering how good our results were despite that.
It will be interesting to see if we continue to outperform in 2022 -- if so (and I expect so, full disclosure), I think putting a little weight here is a seriously reasonable suggestion 😛
@Shawn, so I'm not talking behind your back ;)