Cooper Legion
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That’s also my usual assumption, but I feel like the part 1 part 2 nature complicates things a bit — TA was a nice pretty self-contained narrative that didn’t really leave anyone desperately needing to see what happened in AoU. IW’s cliffhanger ending really incentivized anyone who saw and liked it (quite a lot of the world) to at least see the next one. Right now I’m expecting the “sequel to a breakout drops” effect to perhaps roughly cancel the DH2 effect, maybe: 700 DOM (270*2.6) 400 China 1.05 OS-China 2.15 WW Even if it falls below IW DOM, China, and Os-China, the finale nature should lead to a higher preview number and a very good shot to beat the adjusted OW record imo.
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In fact, decided to do a little digging with numbers. When JW1 came out, this is how many films had reached those numbers: 145+ OW: 10 375+ DOM: 24 1B+ WW: 22 And now: 145+ OW: 21 (+110%) 375+ DOM: 37 (+54%) 1B+ WW: 35 (+59%) It’s not that these are small numbers, or something idiotic like that. It’s still approximately the 20th biggest unadjusted opening in history. But they aren’t big boy numbers either, not anymore. In 2015 JW played like a top dog, and now it isn’t. Many people have been expecting that for a while, and it fell less than it could have, but it’s still not an unreasonable thing to point out.
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I hope you realize that there is nothing inconsistent about those two things. If a movie needed a 50M OW to be not dissapointing, and someone predicted 20M, and it came in at 35 M, they’d be perfectly fine saying “this did 75% better than I thought it would, but looked at in a broader context the numbers aren’t that great.”
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TA and TFA both “dropped” to #2 OWs with their direct sequels. (248+ for A4 is confirmed. ) TDK->TDKR falls to #3, DMC->AWE fell to #4, Sorcerer’s Stone ->Chamber of Secrets fell to #3, Spider-Man->Spider-Man 2 seems to have fallen to #7. So indeed, looks like a historic performance from a sequel to a #1 opener.