Legion Again

Tomorrow looks like it should be fairly flat for BW, maybe -35% weekly. Should make it to low 3M range unless BB2 takes a bigger bite out of it than I’m expecting.

Answer in spoilers: and @cannastop found another of equal length: There could be more out there, @MrPink found Jurassic Park 2, Planet of the Apes, Rush Hour 2, American Pie 2 in 2001. Pie was 21st, so extreeeeeemely close.

I’m seeing: May 26-28 — Last Crusade record Jun 2-4 — Crusade repeats on top Jun 9-11 — Star Trek V opens on top, #notarecord Jun 16-18 — Ghostbusters II, record (by like 1%) Jun 23-25 — Batman, record by like 35% Jun 30-Jul 2 — Batman repeats on top Which is definitely, ahh, super bonkers wild. Never seen 3 record breakers in 5 weeks before and safe to say never again. But even if Star Trek V was a top 20 it would only be 3 consecutive.

We’re kind of running out of steam here, so here’s a little trivia. I just, by happenstance, found a stretch of 4 consecutive weekends with top 20 OWs (at the time). Can anyone figure out what it is, or find an equally long or longer streak of top 20 opens?

What’s this now? A 0-day streaming release from the MCU set the post-pandemic OW record and will get the post-pandemic DOM record as well, while making a pretty penny on DTC and dealing with the beginnings of a new wave? Yep — must be the early indications of marvel fatigue

600 sounds about right. Global conditions were a lot better for it then, although it would do like 100M less domestically.

BW’s 2nd weekend is 150% of its 1st Sun, basically identical to SMH and same ballpark as AM&TW. FFH probably would have done the same with a Fri release. The drop looks awful because of how the OW was structured with most of the gross on Th and Fri, but there’s no real sign of PA impact beyond that, or reception issues that would influence the rest of the run.

Yes. The previous one did 60M. The one before that was high 90s but still dropping from the afterglow of Walker’s death.

What excuse? Normal number for it in non covid circumstances.

Also worth nothing that while a 30M debut for Space Jam is over expectations, not even by much. 30 had pretty consistently been the high end of BOP’s range. And it’s pretty awful compared to the budget.

So in reality 190+190 then 👀

Have hunch we will see 3rd wknd stabilization at home and abroad. 2nd weekdays will be an early indicator for that, so we’ll see soon 🤞

And yes, the incoming D+ Deluge will certainly put the “SW fatigue” theory to the test. Will be interesting to check back in some 20 months from now and see how my current intuitions have held up (or not).

When I said quality more so than quantity, I wasn’t referring to Solo itself. A movie pays for the sins of the prior entry (which, whatever one’s personal feelings on it, was certainly very divisive). However I don’t want to pull a lordmandeep so for any further thoughts on that maybe take it to DMs. Also fwiw I think Rebels was a really high quality SW product active around this time period, but just didn’t pull the level of viewership to really move the GA sentiment needle one way or another, too bad. Hoping WhatIf? isn’t consigned to the same fate.

Despite my joke above, I feel like Mando probably helped TROS more than hurt by reinvigorating fandom interest and goodwill vs being a competitor for some hypothetical finite pool of attention. I don’t think Loki had much effect of BW one way or another since they’re such different corners of the universe, but if we had a week where the Wandavision finale was 2 days before DS2 I think that would actively boost it.

Well, in a word, no. The issue there was quality much more so than quantity imo. But that’s about as much on that as seems wise to get into 😆

Well, 44+ But yeah, it’s not a strict “this is too many weeks of content to fit in a year” issue. It’s just a matter of movie scheduling, as I said. If you have one movie, then start a new show right after, the 2nd movie has to come out right when the show ends, and then the next show right after, and etc, because you have 8 (or fewer) “gap” weeks to play with. So you wouldn’t necessarily be able to accommodate normal marvel dates like first week of May+ wknd after July 4+first of Nov, since they don’t cleanly fit a certain integer multiple of shows in between. Now, personally I think those traditional dates are overrated anyway, but it’s a consideration.

If it was important to avoid “collisions,” then cutting back on eps/year would certainly be one option to do that, but this entire idea seems very flimsy to me to begin with. Was TROS hurt by the Mando ep that week? … waitaminute 🤔 🤔🤔

They’re gunning for like 40+ eps and 4+ movies a year. Avoiding a week with both isn’t just silly — it’s basically impossible without seriously contorting the movie dates.

It made a lot more money than I thought it would, but then again I know basically nothing about it. Movies are indeed dead though, a Black Widow movie missing 30M 2nd weekend is a sure sign.

Narrowly missing 200 imo. Below what I’d hoped but not too bad with delta and PA. Shang probably also getting thrown to PA and maybe like 65-> 160 or something. Human race still being where we are with covid like 18 months after we designed the vaccines is just massively, almost unbelievably, embarrassing.

Is this including Ontario, or not? I would imagine a 20% MTC increase vs Th ~> 7M in holdover markets ~> high 7s overall. Or are we talking a ~30% MTC increase vs Th for ~8M in holdover markets maybe mid-high 8s overall?

Similar drop as AM&tW and SMH. Not as hurt by previews though, I expect a lower Fri bump, maybe 50%.