Cooper Legion
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Lil followup as I got curious. My suspicion (someone feel free to double check) is that AQP2 holds the post-pandemic record 4th-8th weekends atm. Really solid mid legs there. It fell behind Croods on the 9th weekend, 1.77M vs 1.795M, and then was substantially behind from the 10th onward. Of course, a lot of even huge opening and well-legging pre-pandemic movies were behind Croods for 10th weekend onward.
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Wow, the top posters for this thread is really sad. I resolve to take 2nd place if we ever get rolling again with some solid nums (which I expect by Dec or so, hopefully).
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Anyway, gotta go to bed. Numbers for this weekend, where the story is Candyman, are gonna roll in soon so I am happy to wrap this tangent up here: 50M 3day would be, like, okay I guess. Better/high end of many recent expectations 60M would be pretty strong 70M would be excellent 80M would be extremely slammin’ It’s probably going for like 69+- 6, though I would love an upside surprise.
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He did though. I did see you repeatedly ask him for some real nums, and I wish he had responded then so I knew he wasn’t as optimistic as I assumed from the imprecise language. But you can still take a position without giving a precise number if you’re dunking on people who are giving numbers as being way too low, which he did.
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To be fair to EC, that club was after PS start and two weeks removed from TSS. I believe his basic point (accurate) was there that were a bunch of chicken littles around here after and leading up to TSS — Aug 1-10, or so. And they shouldn’t be calling him conservative on SC, even if they have now changed to be more bullish on it than him, because it was going against that earlier grain which he stuck his neck out on. Which is all very fair. But doesn’t apply to me, specifically. I’ve been optimistic (vs the average, I would say realistic) all the way though.
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Uhhh…. No.Well, I mean, misfits certainly. But they don’t think 60M is conservative even right now. They are way low on the movie still. We are two very different people. If I had been pessimistic in early August we’d have a very different story. Please, enjoy searching up my Shang-chi posts through August, if you have the time. You’ll find that I’m quite justified in calling 60M conservative. Though to be clear, it’s more that 60 is conservative from a (vocally, but as misfits points out, rather vaguely) self-styled optimist on the subject. It would be aggressive from a self-styled pessimistic or normal seeming from a self-styled realist.
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There’s nothing subpar about 60M under the circumstances and for a new character (though I would, personally, be a little disappointed by it). And 60 would be substantially toward the 80 end of a 35-80 range (which is comically broad to begin with). Finally the industry would be ecstatic to learn that it was given that the case avg will be at ~200k vs 30k.
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Free Guy and JC have been playing great all month and are just the demo to have the 4day be like +33% from the 3day. They should do great, especially since there is so much other low PSA dreck to clean out for SC. Candyman had a, at best, normal Sat. Agreed the th:tfti was healthy though. An IM of 11.5 or so with a normal Sun seems likely. Agree with krissykin that the high PLF % the weekend before getting PLF slammed doesn't bode great. It would be lucky imo to ride the boosted Sun to a 50% drop from pure fss, for 10M3 day 12ish 4day. Plausible behind FG, could be a case where Candy takes the 3D and FG the 4D.