Legion Again

Forecasted for 3rd best 5th weekend then, but fingers crossed on edging out Titanic’s 30.01. Deadline’s update also says: “that many ultimately believe will be an end game of $650M stateside, $1.25 billion worldwide” Which seems like a total joke lowball to me off of a 29 Mil weekend — 1.3 is more likely than not.

To get Disney to 1B before IW, presumably. Instead they’ll have to settle for making it on opening Fri or Sat, which will still beat the previous record for fastest to 1B by about 10 days (and make the only times it has been done in under 150 days Disney 2016, Disney 2017, and Disney 2018).

Zilch. They’d be lucky to get another 60 from Wrinkle and 140 from Panther, which is not even close. Even a crazy optimistic 80 from Wrinkle and 180 from Panther (over 750 finish, lol) still falls short.

Really sad to see Black Panther C R U M B L I N G like this on Sun. I’ll revise my estimate down to 675.

So they’re projecting a 13.1 Sunday — -29.6%. That is almost exactly between the last two Sun drops. In order to beat TFA’s 4th weekend it would need a 13.8 Sun (-25.8%). That’ very close to its 2nd weekend Sun drop, so definitely still within reach.

20 would be absolutely incredible.

Okay, a post with some more serious numbers. If BP gets a 42 weekend to get a 563 total to date, then here’s about how it would do with the 4th weekend multipliers of some various movies (some better comps than others): GotG2 675 TFA 687 TA 689 BATB 692 DP 693 The Jungle Book 693 JW 701 TDK 710 WW 722 JUM2 731 Zootopia 739 SM:H 740 That was all mental math, so don’t @ me if some of them are like +/- 2M, but basically top 3 DOM is looking *very* good.

BP dropped 44.7% 2nd weekend, and 40.6% 3rd. If it can come in with 42.1 here that would be a 36.5% drop, which is a perfect linear progression in terms of percentage drops. Some simple extrapolation would then give a 32.4% drop for next weekend (28.46), unfortunately falling below Frozen to be only the 4th best 5th weekend ever. A little more simple extrapolation reveals that BP would drop only 3.7% in its 12th weekend and then see an increase of .4% in its 13th before having a whopping 29.1% weekend to weekend increase for its 20th weekend

Will also accept 42.69 and 42.069 if needs must.

Marvel cannot be anything but crazy thrilled with Black Panther’s performance overall. However, they’re playing the long game, and China is a big market — they’d probably rather have a $70M total and a 8.8 Maoyan than a 140 total and a 7.8 Maoyan, because feelings toward the character will affect BP2, BP3, at least 4 avengers films probably and likely even some other character’s solo movies in which he appears. That said, a single movie’s reception doesn’t determine how people feel about the character forever. If the complaints are mostly about issues specific to this movie’s plot/structure/action balance rather than the characters, then it’s certainly possible future movie’s could end up more liked just by regression to the mean.

120 is still a lot better than almost anyone was expecting a month ago and all MCU first entries iirc. This is more concerning with regard to possible reception of BP2 in my opinion, but that can also be affected by IW and A4. Ant-Man&the Wasp would only need a pretty modest increase from the well received first part 3 years ago to beat BP in China then, which would be really amusing when you look at the ratio between number six for those 2 domestically.

No, 160-190M opening day. That’s in Yuan though, not dollars. Would be an OD in the low-mid $20s.

??? It’s more than 80% likely. A mere 660 DOM, 100 China, 510 OS-China would do it, and all of those numbers are beatable.

Yeah, over 3.5 DOM for Avatar 2 EZ.

For a weekend just over 66, beating Jurassic World for 3rd place on fastest to 500. It’s not even the second best third weekend ever though, so seems kind of like Black Panther is C R U M B L I N G

Those immediately came to mind as the two best candidates, but I wouldn’t personally give either of them 50% or better chances right now.

More interesting/difficult question imo: how long until the top 10 are all 700+ grossers? We’ve got 2 now, maybe 3 if Panther legs it very well, and nothing else on the horizon that I’d consider favored to get there. Can we get there in under a dozen years? Under a decade?

Only need 2 years for 600+ top 10 — BP, A3&4, Ep IX Of course you could also have a wildcard get us there even before IX, or fill in for an underperforming Avengers.

Yes, by a good margin.

BOM has 170 movies opening between 40 and 60, and 1796 opening between 55 and 10 (don’t list below 10). So depending on which range of openings you want and whether you count getting to 400 on a rerelease, either 1/170, 5/170, 1/1796, or 5/1796 (not counting Jumanji for any of those, since it has not yet crossed 400).

Jurassic Park and The Lion King also adjust out of a <55 opening — although Star Wars and E.T. still qualify adjusted.

This is in Jurassic Park, The Lion King, Titanic, and ... ? E.T and Star Wars both get there in rereleases. Is it those three in addition to Jumanji, or did I just miss one. Edit: Jurassic Park and The Lion Kind also get there in the rereleases, actually. I have 5 total and only Titanic in original release.

BP won’t get any summer benefit later in its run the way Avengers did. It should remain ahead for the whole run, but it’s still possible for the lead to narrow a bit rather than widening. That said, I think a lot of people are expecting it to beat Avengers by at least 34 in the end.

RIP dreams of beating Civil War and IM3’s 2nd weekends (also, did you know those two had 2nd weekend that were only 112k apart? Spooky). Can we please at least beat GotG2’s 2nd weekend?

That would be a 43% Friday to Friday drop, so same Sat and Sun increase and drop as last weekend would give us only 64, to miss on 500M. Of course if the actual is like 16.7 then it would just barely be on track to make it with weekend drop matching the Fri-to-Fri.