Marathon

When do we get the first Monday numbers?

Quite similar demos, and possibly a hefty screen loss to Infinity War as well (exhibitors responding to huge demand).

I agree. A 50% drop is obviously only a pipe dream, especially with the holiday now on Tuesday, but a $200m weekend OS in holdover markets (+Russia) WITHOUT China would be an absolutely breathtaking achievement. But yeah, the circumstances here (already stratospheric openings, some countries had extra-long openings, the holiday on Tuesday, etc...) are making that milestone very unlikely.

I would love for the insanity to continue... a $200m second weekend OS. Not very likely, but if the holdover markets drop only 50%, the Russia opening would carry it over the line.

The big game probably affected the business. IW can bounce back today and the next couple of days (I hope).

Will we get a Deadline update today or only tomorrow?

When are we getting more mainland Europe numbers? Italy had a stellar OD...

It finally went over $30m overseas: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $93,718,321 75.4% + Foreign: $30,538,015 24.6% = Worldwide: $124,256,336

From BOM: Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $132,358,711 63.9% + Foreign: $74,800,000 36.1% = Worldwide: $207,158,711 Seems like the overall OS drop was very good, 32.7% (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W16&id=aquietplace.htm), even if two new markets (Spain, Vietnam) softened the drop somewhat.

No significant newcomers, so all focus on holdovers. A Quiet Place retained number one, dropping 33.2% in the process. In and of itself that is a good drop, but the lowly opening weekend means AQP won't be significant even in terms of the local box office, which is a shame. The admissions are at 23.1k. Peter Rabbit retained its number two spot with a splendid 19.5% drop. The overall admissions are at 54.3k. Ready Player One retained its number three with a drop of 23.1%. The overall admissions are at 56.8k. Rampage dropped 41.1% from its massively bombtastic opening weekend. It will still be a massive bomb, but at least it avoided Pacific Rim: Uprising's ignominy of nearly 60% second weekend drop. Black Panther must have gotten a bump from the upcoming Infinity War, since it increased 10.8% from last weekend! We'll probably see a harsher drop next weekend as a consequence, but nevertheless, I don't see how BP could now miss 150k admissions (it's currently at 146.4k admissions). Coco also got an increase! 12.2%. The overall admissions are at 121.9k, and I don't see how Coco could miss 125k admissions now. The local family film Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig in English) was once again in the top 20 for the weekend (at 15th place this time). It'll only need one more weekend in the top 20 for an unbroken streak of three consecutive months in the top 20. What a delightful little run it's having. Very pleased to see this kind of thing (longevity and late-late-legs) still happening at the box office.

Apparently PRU suffered a horrendous drop in Japan. Direct quote (from the Japan thread): Since Japan was the only market left where it could still make some non-trivial amount of money, this surely locks in sub-$300m worldwide. While PRU didn't have much buzz pre-release, it's still (somewhat) surprising that it's going to miss $300m WW. But since the weekend-to-weekend drops were pretty bad everywhere, I guess there just wasn't word of mouth to support it.

Continuing on the CBMs: The clear box office standouts are the first two Raimi Spider-Man films, the Nolan Bat-films, and Deadpool. The seemingly large increase in € between TDK and TDKR is somewhat misleading because the average ticket price increased a flabbergasting 19% between 2008 and 2012. In admissions, TDK is ahead of TDKR. As we can see from the above list, when a CBM doesn't break out big, it usually doesn't even make the top 10 yearly list. Having said that, the emergence of MCU, especially post-Avengers, seems to have improved the landscape somewhat. From 2002 to 2011 the average best yearly rank for a CBM was 20,7. From 2012 to 2017 it improved to 13. In 2018 it's so far so good, as Black Panther has the highest overall admissions out of all of the movies that have premiered this year.

@manny1234 I think the Finnish box office is more brand/franchise-driven than genre-driven. The brands/franchises which are huge in Europe (Bond, Star Wars, LotR & Hobbit, Potter, PotC, and so on) are also huge here. Other than those it's hard to think of a "surefire" thing at the local box office. Well, maybe local family films. Those always seem to do at least solid business. For CBMs the ceiling seems to be lower than the very biggest blockbusters. Those CBMs that do well, can do really well, but even the best-performing of them never reach stratospheric heights. For example, and as far as I know, only one CBM has ever been in the top 3 in a yearly list. The best yearly rank in terms of admissions (figures also in euros when available) for a CBM, starting from 2002 (because after that there's been at least one major CBM per year): 2002: 6th (Spider-Man) 2003: 30th (X2: X-Men United) 2004: 3rd (Spider-Man 2) 💶 €1.72m 2005: 11th (Batman Begins) 💶 €1.06m 2006: 27th (X-Men: The Last Stand) 2007: 15th (Spider-Man 3) 💶 €1.03m 2008: 4th (The Dark Knight) 💶 €2.48m 2009: 32nd (Watchmen) 2010: 22nd (Iron Man 2) 2011: 57th (X-Men: First Class) 2012: 6th (The Dark Knight Rises) 💶 €2.79m 2013: 12th (Iron Man 3) 💶 €1.44m 2014: 18th (Guardians of the Galaxy) 💶 €1.10m 2015: 14th (Avengers: Age of Ultron) 💶 €1.51m 2016: 7th (Deadpool) 💶 €2.70m 2017: 20th (Guardians of the Galaxy 2) 💶 €1.38m

Two new openers: A Quiet Place and Rampage. A Quiet Place went to number one with 10.7k admissions. Not a particularly strong opening, but hopefully it will leg it out. Rampage had an absolutely miserable opening. How miserable, you ask? Opening at fourth, it posted less admissions (slightly under 5.7k) than the 3rd weekends of Peter Rabbit (6.1k) and Ready Player One (slightly over 5.7k)! Even if the word of mouth is better than it was for Pacific Rim: Uprising (which had a similarly catastrophic opening), Rampage faces an almost hopeless task at the local box office. It would need to increase or at least stay flat the next weekend(s) to avoid being a mammoth bomb. Moving on to holdover business: Peter Rabbit dropped to number two, suffering a slightly harsher drop this time, 42.5%. Maybe nothing to worry about? We'll see. Overall admissions at 47.8k. Interestingly, Ready Player One had nearly identical drop to Peter Rabbit, 43.2%, settling for the number three slot. All in all, PR and RPO have been almost sibling-like with regards to their box office performance: openings in a similar kind of ballpark, not too different weekend drops (so far), and even in terms of admissions there isn't too much difference between the two with RPO at 49.7k and PR at 47.8k. Black Panther had another fantastic hold, dropping only 23.2%. The overall admissions are at 142.7k. 150k admissions is still in sights, but it will be a crawl if it happens. Coco also had a very good drop, 26.3%. The overall admissions are at 119.4k. 125k admissions is still doable, but like BP for its own milestone, it will be a crawl if it happens. A couple of random milestones: The Shape of Water crossed 70 000 admissions (with 71 503 to be exact). It's in "almost-blockbuster" territory. A local family film, Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig in English), is the only film released in January that's still in the top 20. In fact, it only needs two more weekends in the top 20 to secure an unbroken streak of three consecutive months in the top 20 (the film was released on 26th January). I think it's doable since it isn't really shedding theaters and the holds it's been having in the 14-to-19 positions have been generally better than the competition. In terms of admissions it's at 126.6k; if it can secure the 3mo unbroken top 20 streak, I'm sure it will also get the 130k overall admissions milestone.

I'm also feeling an approximate 50/50 split, maybe even a higher DOM share, with a worldwide gross of $270-300m.

Nothing of interest in terms of newcomers, so all focus on holdover business. Peter Rabbit dropped a very nice 30.8% to grab number one spot. Overall admissions at 39.3k. Ready Player One fell to number two with a 37.4% drop. Slightly harsher drop than Peter Rabbit, but RPO had an extra-long opening which probably burnt up more demand as a consequence. The next weekend drop will be more interesting to see and more telling of its long-term prospects. Overall admissions at 40.3k. Black Panther is not showing any late-run fatigue whatsoever. On the contrary, BP seems to be going as strong as ever. Once again, BP dropped only very softly: 27%. With these type of legs, 150k admissions is still a possibility, but even if BP misses that potential milestone, it won't be by much. Overall admissions at 139.4k. Coco also had a splendid drop, only 25.9%. The overall admissions are now at 117.1k. The target overall admissions is still 125k. Doable, if no harsh drops the next few weeks. Without wanting to pile on poor old Pacific Rim: Uprising, it must be highlighted that the film didn't even make the top 20 admissions list for the weekend. This is absolutely extraordinary. I can't even remember the last time a would-be, big-budget action blockbuster dropped out of the top 20 in its 3rd(!!!) weekend. Considering that the 20th film on the list posted 1.2k admissions, it is possible PRU made less than 1k, but certainly less than 1.2k admissions. I can't get accurate statistics of PRU's drop and admissions because only the top 20 for a given weekend are freely available. I'd probably get more extensive info via a paid service, but I'm not going to do that; sorry, PRU.

Looking at BOM (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W13&id=pacificrim2.htm), it seems PRU suffered some pretty harsh drops across the board last weekend. Is $300m worldwide in danger?

Two new openers: Ready Player One and Peter Rabbit. They were number one and two, respectively. RPO had a staggeringly long opening, from 28th March 'til yesterday. The haul is 25.3k admissions, which is good, I think, especially considering that the IP probably isn't all that known here. Peter Rabbit, however, was more impressive of the openers as it opened two days later, on 30th March, yet almost immediately caught up to RPO in terms of admissions: 24.5k. Aardman's Early Man dropped 32.3% to number four. The drop would be solid IF the film had opened better, but since the opening was so lousy, Early Man's run here won't be much to write home about. Tomb Raider had a very good drop, 33.6%. Unfortunately, these solid drops are scant consolation due to the underwhelming opening performance. The overall target admissions for TR will probably be 50-55k, which is still well off from a "typical", solid blockbuster performance (80-100k). Black Panther had another stellar drop, 26.1%. The overall admissions are at 135.4k. That means the multiplier from the opening weekend is already 5.16x! 150k admissions could still be reachable. Coco's bugnuts run continued. This time it dropped a mere 17.3%! I haven't got the slightest idea why Coco's run has been and continues to be so god damn bizarre, but it's never been boring, that's for sure! The overall admissions are at 114k. I think there's enough in Coco's bizarro box office tank for at least 125k admissions. And finally, Pacific Rim: Uprising, which opened the week before with an abysmal 6.1k admissions, still managed to tank 58.9%(!) in its second weekend. Considering that the Finnish box office is mostly walk-up based and generally backloaded, dropping nearly 60% weekend-to-weekend is absolutely god-awful, like almost unspeakably god-awful. It's an epic bomb here for sure, and I would imagine exhibitors will be dropping it from their schedules ASAP.

The overseas run starts tomorrow. I wonder if we'll get some early numbers from Deadline (and not just the usual report on Sunday)?

It's Tuesday and BOM still doesn't have country-by-country breakdown of the weekend.

In Finland, BP is the most popular superhero movie since Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (which was the most popular superhero movie in 2017), and in fact just went past it in admissions.

A very quiet weekend. I'm guessing the winter - and the copious amounts of snow - that has lasted far longer than usual is encouraging people to go alpine and cross-country skiing, snowboarding, skating, etc. rather than to the movies. Anyway, Aardman's Early Man opened and went to number one with 7.4k admissions. A poor figure for sure. It could be that unless there is a connection to Wallace & Gromit or that it is a Wallace & Gromit film, an Aardman flick won't set the box office on fire here. Shaun the Sheep did sort of ok, grossing about €0,75m, but other than that, Aardman films in the 2010s haven't done much of anything here, and looks like Early Man will continue that streak. Tomb Raider dropped 41.2% to number three. Out of context that is a solid drop, but since it opened (very) modestly, any joy over that is understandably rather subdued. The overall admissions are at 21.6k. Pacific Rim: Uprising bombed. The opening performance was a pathetic 6.1k admissions. That's under Tomb Raider's second weekend (6.2k admissions), a movie that, lest we forget, in and of itself is hardly setting the box office on fire here. The local reviews for PRU have been mostly scathing, with one quote in particular leaving me in stitches (translation by me): "The only way to enjoy the Pacific Rim sequel is to use 2 percent of the brain - the rest 98 must be filled with popcorn." Black Panther dropped a great 25.8% to 5th place. The overall admissions are at 128.1k. Getting to 150k admissions would be a nice milestone, but it will require a clear overperformance in these late-run stages. Coco suffered a rather harsh 45.3% drop to 7th place. Because its overall run has been so, so weird thus far, I'm not going to write off its late legs just yet, but nevertheless, this is still a disappointing drop because it looked like it had finally found some degree of stability after all the initial madness. Oh, well.

Not a huge surprise. The source material is pretty much unknown outside of North America, the trailers looked like a mess (and gave unwanted Tomorrowland flashbacks), and it doesn't have any stars OS audiences would go out of their way to see. At least for overseas you could see it bombing from a mile away.

I live in a small town and my local cinema generally has cheaper tickets than the country average: €10 for most movies, sometimes up to €12,50 if there is sufficient demand. In big cities the cheapest tickets are usually €12,50 or €12. But if it's a big blockbuster (or a breakout movie with huge demand) the price could go up to €14,50. I think anything beyond that is a premium format/luxury seat/etc ticket.