jedijake

I don't expect marketing to as painfully bad and late as Thor L&T. I'm expecting the first teaser in time for Ant Man QM (maybe Superbowl-that would place it perfectly to show in front of AMQ) and the first full trailer in time for GOTG3.

The one thing that sticks out to me with the young Indy is "WHY THE HELL COULDN'T THEY HAVE HAD JUST ONE SCENE IN THE SW SEQUELS WITH LUKE, LEIA, AND HAN IN A FLASHBACK!?!?!?!?!"

Two major trailers in one day!?!?!?! Cool, but........very odd and unorthodox.

We should expect a GOTG3 teaser before Indy5. The question is whether they will drop both to run in front of Avatar2.

I've adjusted my predictions to $440-$450 million. Let's see how it does this weekend. If the weekend is closer to $20 m than, say, $25 or even upper 20's, then it will end up in my range. If we get surprised by the weekend numbers and see a less than 50% drop, then maybe $460-$470 million. I can't see it making more than $470 m under any circumstance, and even that is pushing it.

I can understand those points to an extent. But, again, where is Little Mermaid on your list?

Remember, TFA brought in new younger characters. Hard to think back, but at the time TFA was out, the new young characters were all well-liked. There was actually a LOT of intrigue about where the new trilogy was going with Kylo, who was Rey, what would Luke's role be having been isolated, and what was the deal with Snoke? Much of the appeal came from not only being SW and having a nostalgic feel but also hope for the future of the franchise. Does the new Indy movie have that? I don't know any spoilers, but I also don't know of any new "heirs" to the franchise nor have even heard of any set up for a new set of movies. Maybe there is, but there's been absolutely no talk of it from what I have heard (and I have searched). Meanwhile, TFA was all about that. @Verrowsdo many even know who Mangold is? Maybe die-hard cinemaphiles, but not the GA. I still stand by my prediction that it doesn't make $300 million domestically and maybe not even $250 m. Maybe even far less than that and maybe we have another Solo on our hands. Not a horrible or even really a bad movie-just competent and meh.

That might seem expected, but as we all see now, the unexpected should be expected. 60% drop from OW for Av2 due to Christmas Even Friday. Then at least a 20% drop in the third weekend.

What kind of audience does Indy even have now? Who does it appeal to? That's coming from someone who has Indy as one of his top 10 franchises of all time, but still admits there's nothing appealing in this day and age about having an 80 year old as the main action star and almost everyone else well over 50 or 60 except for one relatively unknown female.

Where's Little Mermaid? And people really keep reaching above their reach for some films (MI8 $350 dom??? Really??? GOTG3 almost $500 m? Ant Man over $300 m?)

Yeah BP2 is fading out a lot more aggressively than it was marketed in. Good movie but isn't sticking for long. Oh well, at least it will be pretty highly regarded in its legacy.

Are people going to be running out to see this just for the visuals again? Because there's 0 anticipation for the story.

This looks like a bunch of Nintendo cut scenes glued together.

See....this is why SO many people get depressed and panicked about movies in general. When they predict Indy 5 making ridiculous numbers and it makes 2/3 or even 1/2 of those predictions, people whine about how it underperformed. I can definitely see Indy 5 making less than $300 million domestic. 2023's champ will probably be either Little Mermaid or GOTG3 but we're talking MAYBE in the $400 millions. 2023 will be another 2014.

Probably gonna check out Skywalker Saga lego game for the switch. We'll see how that ranks

We know that streaming has heavily affected cinema. The question is how long can streaming hold up? To keep subscribers, they have to keep adding compelling and entertaining content. Does the cost of adding that content exceed the amount gained from subscriptions enough to make a profit? And if not enough content is added or created, how many subscribers will drop the service. It's like a big circle that gets smaller and smaller.

See it's reasons like this that I never even make predictions nor care about international box office. I can't make projections on things I have no idea about.

What does the World Cup have anything to do with movie box office?

I agree that Indy 5 will struggle to get much past Indy 4. I know this post wasn't addressed to me, but I can speak for Indy 5 not making $500 million domestic. 2008 ticket prices=$7.18 Indy 4 gross-$317 m. Admissions=about 44.15 million. 2022 tickets=$9.17. Indy 4 adjusted=9.17 x 44.15=$404.85 m. Some say 2022's prices=$11. Thus the adjusted would be 11 x 44.15=$485.65m. But we know we can't compare apples to oranges. Otherwise BP2 should have made over BP1's numbers. There's sins of the father and an unknown fan base. I don't really know what kind of fan base Indy even has any more. There's also an older cast, It's gonna HEAVILY skew older for sure and have pretty much no younger audience. Even TGM had those "cool" (I guess) flight scenes and younger-ish cast members. Plus Cruise has been somewhat popular in the MI franchise in the past several years. I can't think of one single thing that Indy 5 will have that will remotely appeal to those under 35, let alone those under 25. Not one thing at all. I will be pleasantly surprised if Indy5 makes $300 million domestic and will be absolutely ecstatically shocked if it gets anywhere near $350 domestic.

But was over $200 million less than TDK domestically.

I think people are clinging to Indy 5 as the next nostalgic reboot to save the cinematic world. Doesn't work like that. It didn't work back when Indy 4 came out (did well but not extremely well). It didn't work with any Terminator movie or Ghostbusters movie. Sure it worked with SW and JW, but Indy had its chance already. I'd LOVE for it to surprise us, but I am just not feeling it. Harrison Ford is my favorite action star, but he's 80. Nobody knows Phoebe Bridges or whatever her name is. And TGM had those big POV jet fighter scenes that looked cool on the big screen (apparently). And if this nostalgia thing IS the way to go, where's our next BTTF movie? What about ET, Goonies or Gremlins? Maybe TGM had something else. Quite honestly, I don't see it, but enough others did. But I don't think it is a pattern or trend that can be applied to other properties.

PLEASE tell me that you didn't mean $550 m domestic for Inday5! Even adjusted, Indy 4 wasn't close to that.

Do they though? A good family film in the summer or Christmas holidays will always do exceptionally well given the right climate. We don't have that climate, but we could next year. Look at Aladdin and Lion King in 2019. I just think that Indy 5 will suffer MUCH more of a "sins of the father" effect than anything from MCU. The last Indy was 15 years ago and was not well received. And there's no new youngin' to take the reigns from Indy. Aquaman2 will only do well because it's the holidays. I think Mermaid will be the biggest movie domestically next year. I think it will go something like this (domestically) 1. Little Mermaid ($420m) 2. GOTG3 ($360m) 3. Aquaman 2 (thanks holidays) ($340m) 4, Hunger Games Songbirds and Snakes ($300m) 5. Ant Man QM ($280m)

It's really not that complicated. If people aren't swarming the theaters for big action, special effects movies, they CERTAINLY are not going to spend money on movies where people mostly talk. Nothing against these movies because many are good, but the expectation is "if I see it, it will be in my own home on a streaming service I already pay for to see other movies". What @CaptNathanBrittlessaid is 100% spot on. COVID accelerated what may have been inevitable. Try talking to people under 24 about movies. Nobody cares and few have interest. By its second weekend, TGM's audience was 45% over 55 years old. How many of that audience actually stream and how many would see superhero movies, animated movies, horror movies, or movies without action? TGM had action, military (popular with older white conservatives) but not the CGI fest that turns a lot of older folks off. Problem is, as I said, TGM cannot tap into any movie trend that can continue the way superheroes did and other franchises did. So, next year, we are back at square one; that is it's superhero movies or bust. And that genre is even starting to wane a bit for younger audiences as well. Indiana Jones 5 is the only film that could tap into the TGM audience. But I am fearful for that one. The cast skews WAY WAY WAY older and I highly doubt there will be much interest at all from the under-35 crowd. As for WDAS, they need to stick with what they do best: musicals Next year, Wish will be a HUGE thermometer for them.

Unless it completely falls off the cliff, there's no way we can say BP2 is bad in any way. It is a drop. It had a LOT to contend with (controversies, setbacks, streaming prospects), but it only LOOKS bad in comparison to the predecessor. The bigger the predecessor, the bigger the drop of the sequel. It has a chance to see a smaller (though slightly) drop than TLJ from TFA. BP2 has done very well and we should be happy about it. It's great to celebrate the success of TGM this year and I understand the sentiment that it's nice to see a non-Disney film dominate. However, while that was refreshing to many, it's unfortunately NOT a pattern or trend that can follow. What other non-Disney films, sequels or not, can recapture the lightning in the bottle? Quite possibly the biggest problem with Hollywood is that there seems to be no room for massive hits that are either original or based on source material that has never been tapped. Long gone are the days of Star Wars, Indy, ET, Jurassic Park, Harry Potter, Titanic, Avatar1, Ghostbustes, Back to the Future, Independence Day, Matrix, etc. No studio will touch a new property, original or source-based, for the theaters. Anything new that is big has been relegated to streaming as a series (Stranger Things, Game of Thrones, House of Dragon). And even with that, there are no real ways to track the amount of revenue they generate. Thus, we are left with reboots and sequels for the theaters and both are highly scrutinized by both critics and movie goers. Now, with animated movies suffering a bit (except for Minions apparently), we are left with the former and some horror and niche films which are all lucky to hit $100 million. So budgets have to drop. With it, some quality drops. We are truly at a crossroads in terms of screen-based entertainment. People can talk about how "bad" 2022 has been but just wait until 2023. GOTG3 will be big,but how big? Ant Man QM will do okay but won't light the world on fire. The Marvels will suffer. Little Mermaid will be the next victim of the "anti-wokers" or whatever they are. Then there's the post-summer 2023 box office. Yikes, that is going to be ROUGH!!!