jedijake
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Everything posted by jedijake
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Thursday's high will be 70 and the low will be around 15. It will drop 55 degrees by that night. That's, like, a 50 Shades of Gray drop!!!
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The best release date for a December movie would be December 19. But that happened during the pandemic so.... TROS would have been SO much better if they had made the movie that I wrote between TLJ and TROS. Following TFA and R1 and TLJ's critic score helped boost its OW. WOM from audiences shot it dead. But another topic for another day. Christmas Eves on weekends are NEVER good!!! That and the fact that people have low attention spans and when they say "oh I will catch it next week" that week never comes because they forget about it. TGM is an enigma. The only thing I can gather is that it appealed to older folks who don't stream. Only thing I can gather ( and I was a teen when TG came out, but about 50% of the audience were older than me!). Theoretically. Memorial Day weekend is truly the best release date for movies. As for Av2, next week will be quite a bit bigger than this week for sure. Same was true for TFA, TLJ, TROS, NWH, Av1, etc. After January 1...hmmmm....
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Top Gun Maverick was so, ugh, not that great. It really wasn't. Now that may be because I am not a military person. I support the military, but I don't understand the logistics. Of course, I never cared one bit about the original. I guess Spidey being one of the top 3 superheroes in history (the other two being Batman and Superman) makes sense. It was his Endgame of sorts. But TGM-I will never understand fully.
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I had said O/U Jurassic World. Then Dark Knight/Rogue One (probably still in that range). Is it really concern trolling to say that there's a possibility of Avatar2 coming under TROS domestically?
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All of this makes me wonder how on Earth NWH and TGM did as well as they did.
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WW or domestic? WW yes. Domestic no.
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There's still feel and taste.
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The movie will be fine. Lofty expectations are what they are, but it will do fine. The question is whether he can keep selling Avatar movies on the basis of visuals. What else is there to offer visually? At some point the story will have to sell itself more than visuals. Is there a story to tell where people truly want to see what happens next? Are people tied to the characters enough to anticipate the next and the one after that and the one after that?
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This is Deadline we're talking about, so........
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Avatar: The Way of Water Second Weekend Guesspalooza! CLOSED!
jedijake replied to Deep Wang's topic in The Speakeasy
$70.8 million -
I hope that means there will be an "Art Of" book coming soon. Was hoping there'd be one in time for Christmas.
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Rogue One had the same identical schedule as Ava2 in 2016.
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Dropping predictions. BPWF will probably end up in the $430's, but if people suggested that a couple of weeks ago-ouch! Now, some are suggesting Ava2 will open less than $150 m (probably will happen) and maybe even less than $600 m domestic (could very well happen). Does that count as "concern trolling"?
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So....I'm REALLY puzzled right now. How does what everyone is doing with Avatar2 that different from what some were accused of about BPWF? Why was it a bannable offense with BPWF but okay with Avatar 2?
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The first Avatar was slow to start but was consistent because it was an unknown entity. It's word of mouth built on its unknown status. Avatar 2 is now a known entity with a reputation and being long-awaited. But yet there are no must-see spoilers. It's kind of unprecedented in that nobody knows which way it will go. I predict about a 50% drop in its second weekend and a 25-30% drop in the third., The first mid-week won't be as strong as some may guess, but the second mid-week is where it will go crazy. OW: $150 m midweek:$80m Wknd2: $75 m ($305m) midweek: $110m Wknd3: $52m ($467m) midweek: $30m Wknd4: $28m ($525m) TOTAL: $630-$660 m (4.0-4.4X)
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SMH at people predicting $100 million for the second weekend with Christmas Eve right smack in the middle.
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correct
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If BPWF was THE Christmas release in any year, we would have seen MUCH different numbers and be having a very different discussion about it. Surpassing the first one? No. But possibly closer to $600 million? Sure, probably. But, again, that is if it were the uncontested Christmas blockbuster of the year.
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This movie doesn't have any massive spoilers that have to be seen in fear of getting leaked. Such was the case with NWH, Endgame, Infinity War, BPWF, TFA (and other SW movies), and DSMoM. Sure, all of those had leaked plots online (mostly on reddit and selective message boards), but there were enough unspoiled folks that needed to see it early to avoid them before they leaked in the wide open. Movies like BP1, TGM, Avatar1, and this do not have that. This movie is a "you have to see what it looks like" rather than "you have to see what happens". But that's a trademark of Cameron's movies and it has worked pretty damn well for him so far.
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The question is whether any other studio or franchise can or will ever use the immersive experience that Cameron uses of if he holds all of the eggs in his own basket to serve itself. Is this Flights of Passage the movie or is is a direction Hollywood could or should take? We thought it would in 2009, but the 3D effect waned and fell dead. Will this be the same situation? Will the bar be set too high for any movie, rendering them just not worth the cinematic experience? We shall see, but it will take at least a year to see if anyone can or is even willing to try creating the "total" cinematic experience.
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Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews
jedijake replied to Grebacio's topic in Numbers and Data
That's most likely. That isn't much past CM (I didn't say at or below CM). I'll probably get another slap in the face from MODS for being consistently pessimistic, even though it's just stating facts lol. -
Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews
jedijake replied to Grebacio's topic in Numbers and Data
Not much past Captain Marvel probably. -
Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews
jedijake replied to Grebacio's topic in Numbers and Data
Sits back with hands behind head and sighs and smiles with a grin. -
Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews
jedijake replied to Grebacio's topic in Numbers and Data
Be careful @XXR 4 Modsidentand @DAJKyou may be warned for your excessive pessimism and doom and gloom!!! -
Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews
jedijake replied to Grebacio's topic in Numbers and Data
Could you explain those numbers? Certainly they are not for the weekend. That's $17.4 million. That's a 62% drop from its third weekend. That's the very definition of "falling off the rails". There will be those who would back pedal and say "that's to be expected" or "people are just being doom and gloom" and be revisionists. Some of those folks were the ones to say that it will reach at least $470 million.
