We'll likely see a bigger drop than Aladdin in the 2nd weekend. Probably guaranteed. And then everyone will spell doom and gloom. But ACTSV, so you know. I suspect the stabilization and real tell-tale signs come in the third weekend. Let's face it, nobody cares about Transformers, Elemental is not going to do that great unfortunately, and IndyDOD may be DOA. TLM will be the go-to family film for quite a while.
Family movies almost always make over a 3.2X in the summer. The only exception I found in the past 10 years was Minions which had a 2.90X, but still made $336 million domestic. Even if Elementals opens with $40 million, a huge multiplier won't be much of a threat to TLM. The BIG question is to what extent ACTSV will attract families.