jedijake

It'll be interesting to see if ATSV behaves more like a traditional CBM or like a traditional summer animated/family movie. I am guessing more like the latter but not quite like the leggiest animated. Maybe a 3.5-3.7 multiplier?

Where did ATSV fall short overseas if it only made $88 mill and did fairly well in China?

$300 million is pretty much guaranteed, probably by the first weekend of July. $320 million is likely. $330 million has a pretty good shot. $340 million is possible, depending on the holds from here out.

Just downloaded ITSV from Amazon. It's only $9.99 (not sure how long that will last). I guess I should get on the animated Spidey bandwagon since I never saw ITSV.

Anything over $40 million is decent. Still under 60% drop (though slightly) with immense competition. Should still have no problem ending up $320-$325 million with a chance at $330 million. But now it can take a sort of breath of relief that it made it past the biggest competition. Transformers and Elementals seem DOA while Indy 5 will probably not fare that well.

Probably just at or almost at $40 million for the weekend TLM.

Probably be more like 55-58% but that is still good considering the monster ATSV is. Speaking of which, could it be that people are drained from the live action CBM and are now wanting a different medium for CBM's, hence the popularity of the animated spideys? And the idea (and likelihood) of the top 2 movies of the year being animated and NEITHER of which are straight from Disney may be telling of something. Not sure what, but something.

3 movies over $300 m domestic, possibly all over $350 m domestic is not a bad summer. Or at least 1 over $400 m (ATSV) and the other 2 at least close to $350 m (TLM, GOTG3). No clue how Flash and Indy will fare.

So $43-$45m seems to be what TLM is heading for. That's pretty spectacular considering this weekend is the most competition it's going to have.

For which movie? ACTSV's day 1 or TLM's weekend?

Well people who were kids when the first one came out aren't exactly "old", but I think the nostalgia fever already hit in 2008 and most fans have moved on from Indy.

I wonder if TLM can manage to pull a 3.5X multiplier.

Box Office Pro seems to be WAY overestimating Indy 5. https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-and-ruby-gillman-teenage-kraken/

I think $40 million is very doable for TLM this weekend. So far, it is keeping pretty close to Aladdin despite the comp from ACTSV.

Which policies?

My bad. I saw that number and thought there was no way it would have that hold. That's a great hold.

Is @Issac Newton someone who actually posts real numbers?

Ugh what did I say! (facepalm)

Don't tease like that. People will actually believe it.

I was actually told on another message forum on a completely different site (a Disney site) that "well, you probably liked the sequel trilogy too". I do, but that's besides the point. That very sentiment that is all around us is what is wrong with the whole culture of entertainment.

Finally saw the movie and we all loved it. Halle was phenomenal. McCarthy was excellent. They did an AMAZING job with Sebastian and Diggs was the perfect choice. Sebastian had 100X more emotion and personality than ANY of the characters from Lion King remake. Definitely at least neck and neck with Aladdin as the best remake, maybe THE best remake! As for profit, that is much more of a Disney finance issue than an issue with the movie itself. No way anyone could EVER have predicted what is happening to it in Asia. And while it pulled in less in the opening weekend than expected domestically, it should still pass $300 million which isn't too shabby. Also, while ACTSV will pull away imax and 3D theaters, we're talking two very different animals.

We'll likely see a bigger drop than Aladdin in the 2nd weekend. Probably guaranteed. And then everyone will spell doom and gloom. But ACTSV, so you know. I suspect the stabilization and real tell-tale signs come in the third weekend. Let's face it, nobody cares about Transformers, Elemental is not going to do that great unfortunately, and IndyDOD may be DOA. TLM will be the go-to family film for quite a while. Family movies almost always make over a 3.2X in the summer. The only exception I found in the past 10 years was Minions which had a 2.90X, but still made $336 million domestic. Even if Elementals opens with $40 million, a huge multiplier won't be much of a threat to TLM. The BIG question is to what extent ACTSV will attract families.

At or less than 50% drop from Monday is great. It would actually be a smaller drop than Aladdin AND Maverick if it holds.

And now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Any word on Tuesday numbers? Or is it way too early?