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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Deadline really overshot KOTM I remember, they were slightly over on TS4 as well, and they were too high on TROS previews. That said they have more often been conservative.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    As I suspected it went slower than the Thursday model might have suggested, so good thing I didn't say a number in that post. 227,070 as of about 20 minutes ago. Expecting 18-19 million final total depending on how MTC-heavy it is.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    189886 in the run that finished just now. My guess will be in the range of 19 million True Friday for now. Edit: I made the wrong time comparison. But the numbers I'm getting from the revised comp seem a bit too good to be true...I'm gonna wait until the next update to say anything.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    Dune will do better than ITH. The book is much more known than the ITH musical for starters.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    Deadline's before-weekend projections and internal multis are often wacky, but their midday updates have been reliable in the past (they've missed some, but so has the Tracking thread to be fair). Pretty sure they have a source with Comscore access so I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand, even though it seems quite optimistic and I'm not sure I believe it myself.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah no problem. Looking at the trend 20+ True Friday could be in play but I need another run to get any sort of idea about the pace. If it can be at say 190-200k when the next run finishes, we may be in good shape.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Idk what the trend will be like on Friday, since there are shows starting from the morning unlike Thursday. If it does go like Thursday it would finish at about ~300k which would be perhaps a 20 million True Friday.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Somehow they get only 66.5 from a 22 million True Friday...Deadline math strikes again. This seems really positive but who knows lol.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    In the run that just finished it was at 154988. This started about 2.5 hours ago and just finished.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    F9 is currently at 130887 tickets sold, which doesn't include same-day added shows. AQP2 finished with 205k at MTC2. Since F9 is overperforming at MTC2 I would adjust the comp down by a little. So if it reaches 260k something like 17.5. To go for the 20 range it would need something like 300k which is tough.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    No. Friday run takes longer than Thursday due to having double the show count.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Missed that. That would explain the high MTC ratio.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    At about midnight central F9 had 120,483 for Thursday and 107,281 for Friday.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    F9 currently has 108k tickets sold for Thursday. At the same point Keyser had AQP2 at 69k (64k adj). But walk-ups seem pretty strong for F9 and I think it will have an advantage in ATP. So I will go with 8.5-9.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    I liked this trailer better because it looks cooler and shows more cool stuff. Simple tastes I guess.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    100,337 as of about 20 minutes ago.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    ~90 minutes after this it was at 70,452 tickets sold. ~90 minutes afer that it was at 74,649. Currently (after another 90 minutes again) it is at 80,600.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    The gap should increase quite a bit. This is the fastest period for sales.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Matched AQP2 final number at MTC2. Don't know about Hobbs and Shaw.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I have one. I was a bit overzealous with the hour comment though. It was about an hour and a half.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Morning update: F9 is currently at 66904 tickets sold for Thursday. Added 9k since last night. About 6k of that came during the late night/early morning hours, while it did about 3k just in the past hour and a half.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah, I misread and thought those were T-1 numbers. You are right.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Edit: misread
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Fast franchise late bumps come through again. F9 MTC2 Thursday Showtimes: 3239 (+190) Seats Sold: 57117/418403 (+14108) Friday Showtimes: 6583 (+358) Seats Sold: 73924/906455 (+22264) Excellent late bumps. It's already nearly matched AQP2 final Friday PS at MTC2 with the biggest day left to go. Though the ratio at MTC1 isn't as good, for previews I will go with 9-9.5 and True Friday perhaps 20.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Thursday: Showtimes: 2874 (+13 in two days) Seats Sold: 38726/441038 (+3537 in two days) Friday: Showtimes: 4948 (+0) Seats Sold: 23261/771001 (+1739) I took the update a little late today, but it does seem like there might have been a bump. Now for the real good stuff with F9.
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