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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Not likely, that's the same multi as Homecoming which was in 2017 and didn't have PA. With summer and 5 PM previews that seems really really tough. No, July 5, that said it was likely affected by proximity to the holiday. But Widow was a more hyped movie than Ant-Man and has PA so it may be a wash in the end.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    That seems a little too ambitious to me but you never know.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    I would say 88-90 but really depends on Friday. Could see as low as 85 but would be surprised if it goes below that.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    13.2 so closest are @katnisscinnaplex @keysersoze123 and @Tinalera
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    If it continues the trend of Thursday coming in below our expectations and Friday above it will be like 13 million Thurs and 30 million Fri. Here's hoping.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Forgot about GOTG. Yeah that should be 150+ as well. DS it depends on what exactly "Multiverse of Madness" actually entails and what is actually in that movie.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Pretty sure the RT verified score is from USA Thursday previews. Nah RT verified tends to track pretty well with Cinemascore actually. Much more reliable than your average online rating.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Big 3 used to be Cap, Iron Man, Thor but two of those are gone (there is Sam but he is less popular). Currently I think there are 4 characters who can open 150+: BP, Spider, Thor, Cap Marvel (the last one is a bit more uncertain due to the unusual circumstances for her first film).
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    94% verified audience score and 4.6 average rating. This is getting an A Cinemascore for sure.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    From a 13-13.5ish preview 100 is unlikely but I've seen far crazier things so won't rule it out completely but hopefully it comes closer to 14.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    It will definitely put it below "normal" -- but given that we have no good comps for BW, not sure what normal actually is.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Marvel generally should have a better Fri-Sat trend than Furious. But it is true that Sat bump will probably be the most affected by PA. Wonder which of those two factors wins out.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    I agree with 13.5-14 based on MTC1. Hopefully it has a good day tomorrow.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Actually I could see it getting to 94 from 14.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    In the run that finished about 20 minutes ago it was at 186515. I think it will start slowing down from here. If it still runs 50% ahead of F9 then it will be at 220k final, but expecting more like 215k.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    We have had some surprises with high MTC ratios for previews recently though.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    170,281 in the run that just finished. Still going at 1.6-1.7x F9. If that continues we can expect 225k but I'm still expecting a slight ratio drop. So 215-220k maybe (205-210k at the time we usually take the final number). With $12.5 ATP we can expect about 2.6 million out of MTC2. Great. It looks like at MTC2 it will be around 3x AQP2 so I guess I'll go with that 14.5 million. Edit: 12.5 ATP is more likely than 13.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah very good pace. MTC1 seems a tad slower though, so we'll see.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    In the run that just finished it was 153,100 at MTC2. The run itself is taking about an hour and a half though, so this probably reflects the "true" number from maybe 30-45 min ago. Breaking 200k seems very likely to me. F9 added about 40k from this point onward. BW has been going about 1.6-1.7x F9, that may drop to say 1.4-1.5x going into the night (as BW has an earlier start time and so more shows will already be off the board), so 210-215k seems likely.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't see why the "getting used to not going to the movies" would be confined to the UK if that were the explanation. The OD is fine to good in most places, seems like either Euros or COVID cases or whatever else affected it in the UK specifically.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    I find it hard to see it only hitting 75 million unless something really crazy happens.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Unless there is an issue with BW running out of seats, I suspect that F9 comp will end up at 13.6 million. Adjusted upwards maybe 14.25. Given that it has a couple more hours of walkups than F9 will, maybe could go higher, but it's also starting from a higher point so I'm not sure how much that will help.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm seeing the same trend. Morning/early afternoon walkups are way ahead of F9. But maybe it's because the previews start earlier?
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    Starts the day at 122,509 in MTC2. At the same time F9 had 63,916. So a lead of about 59k and that will grow through the day as BW's pace seems significantly faster so far (I had partial data from earlier in the morning and it sold about 3700 since that, while F9 at a similar period sold 2700). Hopefully it maintains that throughout the day, though I expect the ratio to decline significantly. Also since shows are starting at 5, I won't be able to capture newly added shows after then, and they seem to be trickling in in the morning (it has already added more shows since last night than F9 added in the entire day). That is a flaw in my current system. Will try to resolve it by the time of the next big opener.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    F9 had 67k for previews on Wednesday afternoon. So it sold 24k until morning and then only 40k through the day? That seems like some pitiful walkups.
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