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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    MTC2 is hitting what I expected yesterday but MTC1 is definitely slowing down. So perhaps 13.5 million is more likely. 13.5 26 27 21 87.5 million weekend. Hopefully it does higher than that.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Depends on how it goes today. Not sure if yesterday was an outlier.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    The showtimes added for MTC2 were not that different percentage wise from F9. Friday had been running at a 35 million pace so I guess it was inevitable that it came back to earth but I expected it to happen more gradually.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    My script randomly hung so I won't be able to update until tomorrow morning but Thursday seems like it will be in the expected range of 115k but Friday is now selling very slow and may only be like 107k which is barely ahead of yesterday's pace, not good at all. Not sure 100M can happen at this pace. Hopefully it picks up or something.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    This episode made things even more illogical but in pure entertainment value, it was probably my favorite one. Really fun from start to finish. I dislike the first option, but I agree it is the most likely. Still, I'll be disappointed if it goes that way. Would rather have Kang or some other villain.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    It's taking some time to run but as of a couple hours ago Thursday was at 107k. Most likely it will hit around the numbers I mentioned in my previous post, 112k for the nighttime update and 116k at the actual end of day.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    Not easy but it has a real shot.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    Later critic reviews seem to have a more positive tone in a way than some of the earlier ones, which is weird. Looking through earlier ones, I overstated.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    119 is possible if it has a good day. 127k is difficult. I expect 113-115k by the end of the day (112-113 at my final update, 115-117 at the actual end of the day). On the ATP point, you are right. I took 12.5 as a floor, but it will certainly be higher (because my current system, which I know gives overly low ATP, gives 12.5 right now).
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Say it adds another 27-28k until tomorrow morning, that will put it at 122k for Thursday and it will be running at about 1.5x F9. That may drop to 1.3x or so during the day and F9 I guess added about 53k until the usual late night update time (before final numbers) so add another 70k. That leaves it at 192k, with ATP of 12.5 gives about 2.4 million from MTC2, MTC1 has been much stronger so that may be at more like 4.1-4.2. So at 6.6 million for previews from the 2 MTC. AQP2 was 43% MTC ratio from the late night numbers but those were taken fairly early, so I'm expecting more like 45%. That gives 14.5-15 million.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Fairly normal for MCU I think -- which is of course good overall.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Black Widow MTC2 Thursday: Showtimes: 4541 (+1321) Seats Sold: 94453/591673 (+14394) Friday: Showtimes: 7092 (+1834) Seats Sold: 89657/987314 (+20948) From earlier this morning. Thursday is a bit below where I thought it would be, Friday a bit above, but no big surprises here.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Another Fandango meaningless stat. We already knew it will be higher than those.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    I had Thursday numbers at 5:30 CT which was 88k, probably was going for 92k at my usual 9 pm count which was likely around 94k for the day. So yeah a little behind. I am sticking with 14 million previews and hoping it surprises me.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    Not really, just hard. All it needs is a good T-1 and final day and it's back in play.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Not really? Percentage bump was better than F9. And it has a good chance to make up some ground in that comp since it appears F9 didn't increase much on T-1 there.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    For me 90 or above is good, 85-90 is meh, 80-85 mildly disappointing but understandable, below 80 disappointing.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Seems to be really overperforming in this chain. Both the absolute numbers and the bumps/pace are way ahead of other areas.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    It's not going all that faster than yesterday in MTC2 so far either. I still think 14 million previews may be more likely than 16 although MTC1 seems to be doing quite well. Although still waiting on the usual Tuesday burst of showtimes added. I think it should happen at some point today and that may boost things.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah that's true. Probably a good expectation then but I think the MTC2 ratio will be better than F9 at least (since it's doing relatively better in MTC1) so even that 370k can be 29-30 million.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    I think same-day can go higher than 195k but maybe PA will affect things, we'll see.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah it's hard to say. I agree with you on the trend, I just think AMATW exaggerated the trend a bit due to its odd release date. I wish FFH had a normal opening so we could have that comp.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    I think 16 previews and 30 true Friday is more likely. 26-27 off of a 16 million preview would be unprecedented for a solo film, especially since 16 isn't all that huge a preview number for it to be that frontloaded. AMATW having previews on July 5 also makes it a less than ideal comp since so many people take that day off when the 4th is midweek.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    I would expect it to hit 100 million from 16-18 million previews. But those numbers are not certain.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Friday sales look really good to me. Could always change late but as of now leaning towards normal Marvel movie.
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