Menor the Destroyer

Yeah, I mean you have people getting mad about posts in the tracking thread of all places because the poster is negative on the prospects of a film. Pretty much any post on here would fit that rule.

So it overindexed in the West...that's interesting because MTC2 has a very strong presence there and it really underperformed at that chain.

Domestically I'd say its possible. Should definitely beat WW WW though.

I thought MOS was rather meh (although its been a while and the way I perceive movies has changed a lot). Love the score though.

For this level of opener, the MTC1+2 gross (from Keyser data) is about 40-43% of the previews. Bad Boys and Jumanji were both around that range at least.

A Red Band trailer would have definitely helped. They kept the marketing way too PG-13, which made the movie look kinda meh.

So these are the same markets that Shazam had 15.7 million? Also, I like how beating Terminator Dark Fate by 4% is supposed to be some kind of accomplishment.

That isn't Scott. It's some guy called Travis Bean. Edit: Funniest quote from that article: "Joker didn't have the kind of budget or marketing campaign that Birds of Prey has had". Um...yeah, because it had a much better marketing campaign?

It was like this for Joker as well, and Frozen 2 had the opposite trend. I think the big markets tend to come out more for adult fare while other areas are more skewed toward family audiences.

That's good. 40m+ should happen for sure with those kind of walkups.

This isn't a lol Deadline though. Their projections match the tracking thread.

The T-1 to T-0 trend is 4x which is in line with expectations (though it will add a bit more of course). It's just MTC4 has had a much bigger percentage of sales late in the run, according to Jat that's because its just not as big a preview player. But 4x is still better than my pessimistic scenario. Hmm...Deadline giving reasonable numbers? What's going on here?

Now that is a good sign. Hopefully the other chains replicate that.

New ideas, sure, but I would rather see more high-budget cosmic movies than lower-budget small-scale stories. Plus bigger scope and higher-budget action generally helps with BO (obviously not a perfect correlation).

Sorry, I meant MCU.

Which MCU movies should have had a budget like Shazam or BOP? The budget is based on what the movie is trying to do. Edited for clarity

I mean we already have a massively better female lead in Wanda.

Ok found some time to do a more detailed look at things: BOP's preview pace is similar to 1917 at MTC1. That one added ~28k until final and finished at 51k at MTC1. If BOP does the same it will finish at 70k and that will be 4.5ish million in previews just from a crude ratio against 1917. On the other hand, it's underperforming big time at MTC2 which may affect things. In the worst case, it would finish at 1.1 million gross in MTC1 and 400k gross in MTC2 which would be about 3.5 million previews. In a slightly better case, if its final day bump is closer to Bad Boys than 1917, it would be 1.3 million MTC1 and 500k MTC2 which would be 4.1 million previews with the usual ratios. So I guess 3.5-4.5 would be the range for now (hoping for the latter). Let's see what Keyser posts and hopefully it runs better than I expect. On to Friday. Going with the usual pace movement on T-1, BOP would have a combined gross of 1.1 million at the 2 MTC for Friday PS (the MTC1 ratio with 1917 gives 11.9ish million true Friday, although Keyser's last update for that was the night before so that might inflate the comp). However, again the super low MTC2 numbers affect things. Bad Boys had 1.73 million in combined PS across both MTC. So even if Birds of Prey had walkups at that level it would still only get to 11 million true Friday. I'd guess it goes below that. Perhaps 9-10 for True Friday. Caveat here is that Friday walkups are a lot harder to predict than Thursday.

Gunn's superhero movies are far more beloved than Peyton Reed. And yes the Russos are a draw within the superhero genre. Being a draw within the genre is not the same as being a draw overall.

So BOP was well below this (even accounting for the fact that this was morning), and no way its getting walkups like Bad Boys did. I don't think 6 million is possible at this point.

Yeah, also reviews are good but I don't think they're good enough for the multi that some are hoping for.

I'm not sure. Usually when T-0 is going to pop you see a big acceleration the day before, like with Bad Boys. But with MTC1 overperforming so much it will likely go a bit higher (though that chain overperformed for Joker as well).

Joker at MTC2 was 63k, with a daily pace of 20k.

I don't think the reviews are good enough for that. It's like AMATW level reviews so far

I mean the non-main channels don't really add enough views though. Not for the numbers they're talking about anyway.