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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Would have been shocked if it didn't, but a good sign nevertheless. I definitely think it can beat 140. I meant that my general feel of the buzz seemed to imply it was headed in that direction, but that's a very subjective thing.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    Only one day of data so far
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    That's fair. I get the skepticism and it was annoying when people were hyping TS4 beyond belief.
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    If he's so concerned about this then why not blame streaming services which are a much bigger problem for his type of movie. Marvel movies and other blockbusters are dominant because they get people excited to see them beforehand. Yeah people will watch other movies but they aren't necessarily motivated to seek them out. Also, there seems to be this weird condescension against series and franchises as if there is only one way to tell a story.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    That is fair. We will have to wait and see how things play out. But I don't think optimistic speculation is any worse than pessimistic as long as people don't get too invested in it.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Frozen 2 Presales (T-17) Thursday: Theaters: 271 Showings: 2388 Tickets Sold: 18392 Tickets Sold (adj): 17596 (41% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters) Estimated Sales: 235878 Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.4 million Friday: Theaters: 273 Showings: 4318 Tickets Sold: 26072 Tickets Sold (adj): 24878 (64% of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters) Estimated Sales: 290714 Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.7 million Saturday: Theaters: 273 Showings: 4349 Tickets Sold: 31649 Tickets Sold (adj): 30199 (90%!!! of the Lion King at T-10 at the exact same theaters) Estimated Sales: 315997 Estimated Nationwide Sales: 1.9 million Again, I'm not saying this will beat the Lion King. It's one day of sales, things could slow down, etc. But I don't understand what's wrong with at least considering the possibility after a day like this. I was one of the naysayers on TS4, because the numbers never supported anything close to 200 million, and if F2 slows down I'll become a naysayer again. But there is no way to describe this as anything but a fantastic start. I am sympathetic to those who are calling to chill with the big predictions, just from the hype I've felt and seen I would find it hard to see it going over 140 million. But the numbers say what they say, and F2 is a movie targeted at a demographic that is pretty underrepresented on this site.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    I looked through Cinemark data at the theater level. It varies hugely by region and even theater. Some places is 3x TLK while in others it's not even 1/5.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    It is unlikely to get TLK's previews. But if sales keep going strong I can see it beating TLK FSS.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    I tried but it's a bit difficult as Pulse was affected by so many factors like competition and day out the week.
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    Probably will not get TLK preview numbers with just 17.5k start. TLK (estimated) had that much in far less theaters. Adjusting for that will give 20.5 vs 17.5, and TLK started almost a week earlier. I2 previews should be the optimistic goal, and I'd be disappointed if it can't at least beat TS4 previews.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    I am running TFS numbers for Cinemark. Not hard to imagine this coming up decently short of TLK previews (say 16-18 million) but getting an 11-12x multi. After all I2 got almost 10x and that was a summer release.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Just saying TLK was not in the same universe as SW9 for first day either. But I don't think SW9 will be more than 50 million above it in the end. And while Thursday may be below TLK I have a feeling Friday and Saturday are running ahead.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Yep this is my view on it as well.
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    I'm not gonna argue with these takes just yet, but if we get another few days of good sales I will. I don't think beating TROS OW is necessarily as impossible as y'all think.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    After 12 days of ticket sales TLK was at 33k tickets for Saturday at the same chain. Take from that what you will.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    Fair enough, don't want to inflate expectations. But 23k tickets for Saturday on day 1 is pretty impressive.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    If the FSS sales remain this good for a few days, yes. TLK did 191 million after all.
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Previews are very good as expected, but those OD and Day 2 numbers are exceptional. At T-10, after two weeks of sales, TLK was "only" at 39k sales for Fri and 33k for Sat. F2 should easily be ahead of TLK's day 1 numbers for those and I assume Sunday as well, although keep in mind that we have ~20% more reserved seating theaters for Cinemark now. A few more strong days and I can see myself getting on the 200m train.
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah for sure. My hope is that it can match/exceed TLK at least. Yes, I can, but pretty busy atm. Probably will do that over the Christmas holidays along with BookMyShow.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    Making some estimations, TLK should have been around 17k tickets for previews in the first day (from beginning of presales to when @Porthos makes his report, since I'm using the Sacramento frontloadedness to estimate national proportions) at Cinemark. TS4 is harder to gauge but it seems to be around 9-10k. Again though both of these started a week earlier.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    At T-10 TLK was at 42343, that's the farthest out I tracked it. But I remember at one point during Endgame's presales I found an approximate correlation between Pulse and AMC, I'll go look and see if I can estimate some #s.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    Huh? Weak?
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    One thing though is that there are tickets bought after your final check. So this method would tend to slightly overestimate.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    What was CM's final total in Sacramento?
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    I've heard a lot of good things about it, it's on my list to watch next.
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