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Menor the Destroyer

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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer

  1. Menor the Destroyer
    Finding Dory did 15x in the summer, older comp but not so old as to be worthless.
  2. Menor the Destroyer
    One thing also is that Wang's MTC is expecting $160m. Since that is an internal number and presumably based on actual sales, I'd be more inclined to trust that. Plus taking the average of the safe $140-150 million and the optimistic $180-190 from our presale data that is around where I'm seeing it.
  3. Menor the Destroyer
    3-day DOM: 165,527,348 DOM total:620,099,237 OS total: 1,115,334,466 WW total: 1,735,433,703
  4. Menor the Destroyer
    TLK had a ridiculous amount of shows though tbh. Also I'm assuming that the 30% ahead of Aladdin is showings, because the gap should be way bigger in seats sold.
  5. Menor the Destroyer
    OD presales should finish in 15-17 million range using conservative estimates for ATP and extrapolation, following I2 or TS4 that will be 45-51 while following TLK that would be 34-39 million OD. I don't think this will be as PS heavy as TLK which played like an MCU film. So a conservative pure OD shall be ~40 million. Sat PS should end up in 20+ range, should be 56 million+. Then 30% sun drop to 40 million range again. So conservatively I would say the OW should at least get in the 140-150 million range, with a good chance to shoot far higher if walkups and late PS are strong.
  6. Menor the Destroyer
    Nice to see very good WOM here and on other sites.
  7. Menor the Destroyer
    I agree it's definitely related to TS4. I still don't know why the trades picked that particular one to go all in on when by the final week the presales were way behind I2. Also it's Deadline. I still remember "Endgame 200-250 million" after it had destroyed all presale records earlier that week.
  8. Menor the Destroyer
    To do that, they would have to miss the fact that TS4 and I2 were opening in the summer which obviously makes a big difference for family films. Trying to low-ball, say have a low estimate for ATP and pessimistic extrapolation for the last few days and assume Avenger-level presale heaviness, I still can't see it going below 120.
  9. Menor the Destroyer
    No defense for 90 million being in the range though... I mean they think it's going to open lower than Aladdin despite being in a different universe in presales?
  10. Menor the Destroyer
    If they miss low then the movie "inexplicably overperformed". If they miss high then it makes it much harder to positively spin.
  11. Menor the Destroyer
    Because they all got egg on their faces after making unreasonable projections for TS4 I guess.
  12. Menor the Destroyer
    Frozen 2: 2nd Saturday: 15030/429373 2nd Sunday: 7913/420644 So 2nd Sunday and beyond is where sales finally fall down to earth. So post-OW sales are adding about 1/3 of OW sales.
  13. Menor the Destroyer
    Yeah I mean even Tuesday sales are like 2/3 of previews, even with lower ATP from discounts that's pretty crazy
  14. Menor the Destroyer
    Monday: Numbers I got from 225 theaters due to Wifi issue: 15063/725067 from Tuesday ratios I estimate the true number will be around 20k tickets sold. Tuesday: 43112/811084 Discount day is expectedly big in raw tickets, still this seems pretty strong.
  15. Menor the Destroyer
    More like 100-110 with holiday boost on Friday I'd think. Hard to say for sure though.
  16. Menor the Destroyer
    F2 Wednesday: 23082/621414 F2 Thanksgiving: 23659/584527 F2 2nd Friday: 26765/429629 Really strong numbers over a week out. Don't have many good comps though. FFH's opening 6-day (not the best comp obviously) had D2 final at 112k (77k the afternoon before). D3 was 89k the afternoon before. I will look at Mon and Tues numbers next.
  17. Menor the Destroyer
    I have no problem with bleak superhero films but I don't see how making something bleak equates to "growing up". If anything teen boys are the ones who are most obsessed with making things "dark and gritty".
  18. Menor the Destroyer
    Well of course not. If we go by Cin then it's going for 15 million previews which of course is not the case
  19. Menor the Destroyer
    Adding to this, Thursday at Cinemark is 64% of TLK at the same point, while Friday is 105% and presumably D2 and D3 ratios are even better.
  20. Menor the Destroyer
    @keysersoze123 are you going to be tracking Thanksgiving/2nd Weekend sales for F2. If not I can do it.
  21. Menor the Destroyer
    Perhaps we're tired of people who can't be bothered to read the thread (literally on this page we have keyser's data showing huge sales for Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and cherry-pick data to fit a negative narrative.
  22. Menor the Destroyer
    I was disappointed with how filler this episode was, though. I also agree they should have combined the two.
  23. Menor the Destroyer
    Well it was 3 years older. But Moana never reached the peak levels that Frozen did or anywhere close. Do it by 2004-present and you can see the gulf.
  24. Menor the Destroyer
    I don't agree then. They are both big among Disney fans, but everyone knows Frozen and the merch is just everywhere.
  25. Menor the Destroyer
    Source? The Numbers has them not even close.
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