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Everything posted by Menor the Destroyer
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah 75-80% of TLK's Friday seems a good range. That will still be good for 150+ weekend. From your data it seems that PS should have ended up right in the expected 15 million range or pretty close at least. -
The Mandalorian | March 2023 for S3
Menor the Destroyer replied to Fullbuster's topic in Streaming, TV Series, & VOD Movies
That was really good. Seeing the Mandos fight was amazing and reminded me of some of the best scenes in TCW. -
Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW
Menor the Destroyer replied to Jamiem's topic in International Box Office
Yeah I was about to say isn't 5 million Endgame level there. Also Scrat was really huge back in the day -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Agreed, I think 15x or higher is very doable. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Caveat being that bigger previews will make the big multi harder -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
130 is possible, so is 160 but it just depends on how PS goes in the late hours today and all of tomorrow. OD and Saturday sales need to pop and not stall like Thursday did if it's going to go for huge numbers. Now, perhaps this is just going to be a PS-heavy film and then we get to 130 million. Or maybe Thursday was hurt by being a schoolday and we get great late sales for the weekend. Either way it's a big success with how well the next week is looking to go. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
This has been a much weirder run than TS4 though. That one was quite predictable as after the initial surge faded it quickly dropped and stayed at 2/3 of I2. F2 has been all over the place with the weird Cinemark/AMC ratios, strange late slowdown, unusual sales distribution etc. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Fair enough. Well 130 would still be a great result with Thanksgiving week coming up despite the final week of PS being a bit disappointing. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I'm skeptical of using the multi when we don't really have any good comps. That said the late increases have indeed been soft. Still FSS presales started so strong that even lower-than-expected late sales will yield big numbers. Like I find it hard to see Saturday even in the absolute worst case going below 50 million. I will probably lower to 150 from 165 though. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
The walkup trend relative to yesterday seems fine to me, it's just that the last couple of days have been really slow for preview sales. I guess it's a combination of the factors you mentioned, but hopefully since the rest of the weekend has been trending/accelerating much better it won't end up meaning anything. The bolded I suppose is a combination of Thanksgiving week/weekend (still I don't think that's making up more than 25%) and a super backloaded OW. I still think Friday presales have a decent shot to get to $15 million nationwide, that's 50-60% ahead of what previews are looking to be!! And Saturday is going to be even crazier. In any case, this has been one of the most interesting PS runs to track and I'm excited to see how things play out. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
9 million looking more and more likely. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Yeah, that's why I'm estimating multiples below TS4. TS4 had 12 million Friday PS which went up to a 36 million pure OD. I don't think 40 is too much to ask from 15 million in PS. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Less than 25% to next week from the data I scraped. Thus if we know that F2 is more than 150% of TS4, take 75% of that you still get 113%, and we know it's lagging TS4 in preview sales as well. Remove that, FSS should be ahead by an even bigger margin. I am relatively confident that Friday presales will be $15 million+ leading to 40+ pure OD and 55+ Saturday. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
I2 was more than 50% ahead of TS4 on Pulse like @The Fast and the Furiosa said. The two were not even close. To beat it by Thursday morning is quite impressive especially since we know it's way way behind for previews. -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Could have even been before. With EG they waited until opening Thursday even though it should have blown through the record well before that -
Frozen II 971m OS 1.44B WW
Menor the Destroyer replied to Jamiem's topic in International Box Office
What was the school holiday situation for TLK vs now? -
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
Menor the Destroyer replied to grim22's topic in Numbers and Data
Way too early to rule it out. We still don't know what the Fri/Sat bump will be. From PS it's looking huge.