Dragoncaine

July 14, 2023

46 minutes ago, Lucas said:

This may require a rewatch for many just to get on its wavelength properly, but in terms of just enjoyability it's not really entertaining in the way a lot of his other movies are (purposefully ofc). I can't imagine my mother even getting through one viewing of it. The Nolan movies it reminded me of the most are Dunkirk and The Prestige - aka my two favorite ones, which should naturally sound great for Oppenheimer, and it mostly does. A non-Nolan movie I'd throw in for sure is Social Network.

Dunkirk, The Prestige, The Social Network...this is about to be KINO for me :ohmygod:

July 13, 2023

15 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Does the 16M also include the EA shows or not though?

Going by Charlie's estimates, the EA shows bring the total to ~$18.2m iirc

July 12, 2023

I understand that there is a certain level of vagueness to the threat/villain in Dead Reckoning, but I honestly felt like the plot was very streamlined this time around. On my first viewing of Rogue Nation a couple of weeks ago, I had a harder time following the motivations for new players than here in Dead Reckoning. Doesn't mean the plot was better here -- just personally simpler for me to grasp.

July 12, 2023

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

@keysersoze123

Could we be looking at $9-9.5m? 👀

July 12, 2023

Does the $7m preview # include or not include EA shows?

July 12, 2023

7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Okay nice, I was at a bit of a "yikes" until seeing this. Could we get to $8m+ best case once EA is factored in?

July 12, 2023

7 hours ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Got out a few hours ago, been digesting. Unsurprisingly, it's very very very very very very very good, and at many times great. But it falls just shy of the past three. It does everything as well as you could hope for; the action, the humor, the stakes, the character interactions, the stunts, the production values... it's all there. But I don't think there's any individual artistic or technical element that is better than the respective element from the GP-RN-F stretch. I thought the first two-thirds of the film were stronger than the last third, aside from the conclusion to the train sequence. In particular, the espionage thriller elements of those first two thirds I found is where the film was at it's finest.

Haley Atwell was fantastic as always, I knew she was prominent in the film but I wasn't expecting her to be second-billed. Esai Morales was utterly forgettable, but that's more do to how bland his character was. A shame. Lorne Balfe's score was less remarkable than his Fallout score. I missed the bongos. I missed the intensity of the music from the HALO jump. Along those lines, the cinematography here was very solid but seldom as vibrant as, let's say the helicopter chase from Fallout, with those beautiful landscapes. The action was great here, but again just falling short of that Fallout intensity. And while I didn't mind the exposition-heavy scenes early on, it got grating when they were still happening deep in the third act. There's a couple story/character decisions that I'm disappointed with.

For all the talk of this being the "funniest" MI film, and I did laugh strongly throughout, I'm still not sure anything was funnier than "no shit" in Protocol, Ethan's car chase while half-dead in Rogue Nation, or Benji not giving Ethan the right directions in Fallout's London chase.

All in all, still a great action film that I look forward to catching again in theaters, but in a few months from now if I need to toss a recent action film, I'm going with John Wick 4. That said, the stage has been set for Dead Reckoning Part 2 to climb to new heights.

I think I liked DR a bit better than you and preferred it to Rogue Nation, but otherwise, I totally agree. There were a few exposition bumps, though I thought the film largely flew by and was packed with great sequences. I also enjoyed the focus on AI as the villain more than I was anticipating. Probably 3rd best in the franchise for me after Fallout and Ghost Protocol. This movie was very well shot and more De Palma-esque in that sense, though Rogue Nation might still be the best looking.

July 11, 2023

Seeing this at 5:50pm ET today in IMAX!

July 10, 2023

37 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Just got back from my showing and as expected, it’s excellent. Definitely up there with Fallout as the best in the series.

Also, don’t let the lack of expanded aspect ratio in IMAX put you off, it’s still absolutely worth seeing it as big and loud as possible.

Wait, was DR not shot in IMAX?!

July 10, 2023

1 hour ago, Lucas said:

After like 100 fresh reviews in a row it finally got its 3rd rotten with a catastrophic rating of... 3/5. This thing is so strong right now it might just make it back up to 99% soon lol. MetaCritic indeed is back up to 82/100.

And Katie Walsh's 4/4 review for the Tribune News Service still needs to be added to MC, iirc. I predict the movie will end up around 79/80 MC and 95% RT when all is said and done

July 9, 2023

My top 3 are Fallout, Ghost Protocol, and the original film, so the numerous mentions of suspense-driven scenes harkening back to the original while maintaining the great action of the McQuarrie and Bird films has me pumped.

July 8, 2023

Dead Reckoning hasn't received a single rotten review in the last 104/149 reviews posted to RT.

July 8, 2023

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1, T-4 Milton, ON

Not slowing down at all. This is clearly a film that's likely over indexing in my area, even though I wouldn't guess that it's the type of film to do that here. Demographics are young families. It also might be the timing. With Canadian schools in session right up until end of June, people only now are in full summer mode.

2.429x of Fast X for $18.2M

4.636x of T:ROTB for $40.8M

10.200x of Indy 5 for $73.4M

0.703x of ATSV for $12.4M

2.684x of Flash for $26.0M

These preview comps are what every MI since Ghost Protocol deserves lol

July 7, 2023

3 hours ago, Algebra said:

Seeing more of the reactions and again noticing this pattern. The only outright negative/mid reactions are from RN/Fallout and JW super fans. General audiences and critics who don’t even like most action movies are overwhelmingly positive.

I wonder what this means for me if I'm a Fallout superfan, but not a Rogue Nation superfan lmao

July 6, 2023

I saw Fallout in 2018, then have watched the rest of these films in the past few months. As a first-timer (who will rewatch Fallout before Dead Reckoning), my ranking is:

1. Fallout

2. Ghost Protocol

3. Mission: Impossible

4. Rogue Nation

5. Mission: Impossible 3

6. Mission: Impossible 2

Rogue Nation's cold open was super underwhelming. Cool stunt, but it's over in a flash and doesn't add anything substantive. Ghost Protocol's cold open is a banger and also ties into the third act later with a nice moment for Sergei, while also utilizing way cooler tech, better humor, and a better central setpiece via the Burj Khalifa. The Opera House, underwater heist, motorcycle chase, and Rebecca Ferguson are all peak though.

It's a solid 8/10, I just ultimately didn't love the script the way I do in Fallout and Ghost Protocol. For me, 1 and Rogue Nation are neck and neck - I just think RN is a bit more disappointing coming off of GP. Its action is clearly better, but there's something about De Palma's style that just sings.

Fallout is just a masterclass all around, one of the best action movies ever made.

July 2, 2023

45 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

supposedly indys budget is $329m

26 minutes ago, TMP said:

Even if it didn't cost more than the GDP of a small nation, an opening like this would be an unmitigated disaster. The Flash is such a turbo-bomb that it makes this look fine in comparison lol

Holy shit, we're still doing this even with a potential $329m budget lmfao. Flash is truly going to have to settle for the silver medal here even with just the reported $295m from Disney. If it's $329m, this thing is well and truly COOKED

July 1, 2023

49 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

$5 million more than The Flash is still more people choosing to go see Indiana Jones. Yes, this is a numbers forum, but damn, there seem to be so many excuses for non-Disney films that bomb. RotB isn't Disney. Fast X isn't Disney. Ruby Gillman isn't Disney, and yet the focus is skewed toward Disney because some people are still raging over the Lightyear kiss and need Disney to somehow fail when their movie division isn't even their money-making division. Meanwhile, other movie studios are barely breaking even on certain films and don't have a fleet of Theme Parks to lean back on.

Yes, $5 million more up front which is more than offset by a nearly $100m higher budget. The Flash and Indy are set to be two of the biggest bombs ever created, so I don't know why anyone is cheerleading either of these projects. And I say that as someone who enjoyed The Flash and is looking forward to Indy this weekend. Everything is bombing, it sucks. But I'm not talking about studio optics or how pathetically WB's hype cycle for Flash backfired, I'm talking raw numbers. Flash's ludicrous marketing campaign is going to bury it six feet under, but Indy is no better if we compare what is likely to be the final gross with raw budget and P&A.

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

As far as expectations vs. reality is concerned, The Flash is definitely a much more embarrassing flop than Indiana Jones could ever be simply because the studio for the former worked overtime trying to will it into being a blockbuster until the very last second. The latter was always more of a gamble that had no hook beyond "we (again) finally made another one" and therefore had more room to go either way.

I completely agree that The Flash is more embarrassing from an "expectations vs. reality" standpoint, but numbers-wise, they're probably just about evenly embarrassing (The Flash would be less so if its marketing campaign wasn't so hilariously outsized bc we'd then be looking at ~$500m breakeven vs. $737.5m).

July 1, 2023

9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

23-24 would not be that bad and would probably get it to 60/170. Which, obviously, not great, but not the John Carter/The Flash level flop it is being made out to be.

The visceral hate some people have for this movie relative to other unsuccesful franchise sequels is kinda weird.

I don't really get this "it's not that bad of a flop" mindset. The budget was $295m. It's one of the most expensive movies ever made. Opening $5m higher than Flash on a $95m higher budget with similar (though slightly better) audience reception is the opposite of encouraging. Breakeven should be somewhere around $737.5m.

June 30, 2023

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Considering the doom and gloom that has been going on already would be not be too bad and with good WOM and a holiday weekend IM 60 would be the floor I think. Massive disappointment yes but no Flash that is for sure.

Indy's budget is $75-95m more than Flash

June 29, 2023

58 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Indiana Jones T-0 Jax 6 74 157 833 11,452 7.27%
Phx 7 56 164 678 9,406 7.21%
Ral 8 67 174 895 9,155 9.78%
Total 21 197 495 2,406 30,013 8.02%
Ruby Gillman T-0 Jax 5 22 13 45 2,326 1.93%
Phx 6 24 22 44 2,236 1.97%
Ral 7 27 17 54 2,563 2.11%
Total 18 73 52 143 7,125 2.01%

Ruby Gillman T-0 comps

- Bad Guys - .659x (758k)

- Super Pets - .312x (685k)

- Elemental .213x (512k)

- Lyle Lyle - 1.06x (609k)

- Paws of Fury - 1.075x (543k)

- Boss Baby 2 - .55x (723k)

- Encanto - .316x (475k)

- Peter Rabbit 2 - .55x (499k)

- Strange World - .761x (609k)

Size adjusted average - 622k

All PG movies - 478

All animated Thursday previews (excl 1k+ sales) - 587k

All 2pm movies - 396k

All movies - 447k

Ruby exceeded my expected T-0 sales by a little. Taking comps into consideration, I'll predict a preview number of 600k.

Indiana Jones T-0 comps

- F9 - .787x (5.59m)

- JWD - .325x (5.75m)

- NTTD - 1.07x (5.56m)

- John Wick 4 - missed

- Ghostbusters - 1.343x (5.57m)

- Uncharted - 1.913x (7.08m)

- Transformers - 1.055x (7.7m)

- The Lost City (Total) - 2.55x (8.29m)

- Bullet Train - 2.305x (7.72m)

- Dune - 1.088x (5.55m)

Size adjusted average - 6.33m

All PG-13 movies - 7.13m

All 3pm movies - 6.54m

All action movies - 6.28m

All movies - 7.51m

Unfortunately Indy couldn't reach the projected sales total and most of my comps are coming in much lower than other areas are reporting. There are a few positives (Transformers, Uncharted, Bullet Train) so there is still hope that it can reach the 7.5m number that's out there. Since my comps are coming in on the low side, I'm forced to issue my projection accordingly. The macro comps do give me a little hope, so I'll go with a 6.5m preview number and hope that tempers expectations if other areas underperform as well.

I will be traveling this afternoon so I won't be able to pull the T-1hr sales.

Indiana Jones and the Summer of Doom

June 29, 2023

I'm so impressed by Barbie's potential here, considering the trailers have done absolutely nothing for me so far. I'm here for Queen Greta and the impeccable cast, but none of the actual marketing has given me any positive indication that this will be a home run narratively or emotionally, and the humor in the trailers is...fine, I guess? We'll take a huge W for WB at this point though!

Even as someone who thought Tenet was a complete dumpster fire and enjoyed Interstellar a lot but thought it was a far cry from Nolan's best, Oppenheimer looks spectacularly devastating.

June 28, 2023

I can't buy Bill Skarsgard for a second as Luthor, because he has an inherently untrustworthy face. His demeanor was used to brilliant effect in Barbarian for this exact reason - it played on your preconceived notions of Skarsgard as a villain. Alexander, on the other hand, can turn on the menace and intensity when needed but is also incredibly charismatic and charming. See Big Little Lies and Succession.

While Bill would undoubtedly give a better performance than Eisenberg as Lex, his complete lack of a convincing facade to present to the public would fall into the same category of disbelief for me.

Give me Alexander Skarsgard or Bradley Cooper as Lex, Hoult as a member of The Authority (not too familiar with them), and let Bill Skarsgard play Mad Hatter in the Reevesverse or Brave and the Bold or something.

June 27, 2023

2 hours ago, TMP said:

The top two choices. Nice! Now give Alex Skarsgaard or Bradley Cooper Lex Luthor and throw Nicholas Hoult a bone with a member of The Authority.

June 26, 2023

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Another 3 days of data ... and not much has changed. Still some room for a surprise - either positive or negative - but all indications are suggesting a pretty straightforward finish, as most samples and comps are trending towards convergence probably just shy of $8M

NOTE: Averages include values not shown on the graph

No recent updates on sales past Thursday, but see post a few spots back regarding summer IMs, and don't think we'll see any surprise there either.

An preview at or below $8M, an IM around or just below 7x, and O/U Flash's $55M OW still seems like the general cut line (ie Forecast Matrix in quoted post still holds), though leaning more towards slightly below than above. Even over $50M isn't assured just yet

Thanks, Oppenheimer. We're in the summer of megabombs :ohmygod:

June 17, 2023

Man, these numbers and CS are depressing. Of course The Flash isn't the greatest CBM ever, or close to it, but I enjoyed it quite a bit despite the CGI and 3rd-act rushjob. It's worth noting that some of the VFX are excellent, and visually interesting from a design standpoint; but overall, the CG just couldn't keep up. I understand some of what Muschietti was saying about the distortion in the speed force, but you also...could've just filmed live-action elements for those scenes? The Chronobowl itself looked awesome, imo. As someone who enjoyed the high-wire act of the opening scene, the babies could've looked so much better.

All that said, I thoroughly enjoyed the story, action, and humor here. The comedy felt much more organic and situational than damn near any CBM post-Endgame, imo, Keaton did his thing and had some compelling action scenes, and Ezra was absolutely fantastic. This film's take on time travel was really inspired, and the action was sick through the first two acts, and some nice moments in the third act. Ending was messy for sure - they rushed through some pretty pivotal beats, and many of the cameos didn't land (though I actually appreciated Barry's reaction to them on a narrative/thematic level) - but they stuck the landing emotionally for me, 100%.

I think the CGI is affecting that CS a lot. In no universe is this anywhere near as bad as Black Adam, WW84, Suicide Squad, BvS, or Shazam 2. I enjoyed it more than Birds of Prey and Aquaman, too (two movies I like). Sorry for the mini-rant. I just genuinely enjoyed this one and am shocked to see it on Quantumania/Eternals/BvS level for audience reception.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-0	Jax	6	74	157	833	11,452	7.27%
		Phx	7	56	164	678	9,406	7.21%
		Ral	8	67	174	895	9,155	9.78%
	Total		21	197	495	2,406	30,013	8.02%
Ruby Gillman	T-0	Jax	5	22	13	45	2,326	1.93%
		Phx	6	24	22	44	2,236	1.97%
		Ral	7	27	17	54	2,563	2.11%
	Total		18	73	52	143	7,125	2.01%

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