BadOlCatSylvester
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Posts posted by BadOlCatSylvester
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So, a Jungle Cruise-esque internal multiplier gets Free Guy to a $32,5M weekend. Probably a little lower than that since this is a fan-driven movie.
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Crisis averted for now.
This one's going to be very interesting to follow, since it now has September all to itself. I'm guessing this is the budget must be modest for a Marvel movie if they're really using it as a guinea pig.
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One thing I don't see many people mentioning is the possibility that Sony will decide what to do with their slate once they see how Shang-Chi performs. This delay gives them a decent amount of time to analyze that movie's performance and decide what to do next. Makes sense to me.
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So, what do we expect the Thursday numbers to be for Free Guy?
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9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
As I put in another thread yesterday, this move isn't the worst thing in the world and confirms the data that Delta should be on the way out and everything back to normal. Moving 3 weeks is nothing and is a strong signal of that. If it had moved months or out to 2022 it would be a totally different story.
Nice copium you got there. Can I have some?
Seriously, these delays always start out small before escalating to huge levels. This virus is unpredictable, people.
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Highly likely we get a PA dual release announcement for this in the Disney earnings call happening in an hour and a half.
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Any chances of this doing well are dead in the water. This is certainly going to be one of the biggest flops of all time. Worse than John Carter.
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So, what are we thinking for Free Guy now? Reaching $20M seems like a pipe dream at this point. If Deadline is proven right then Shang-Chi is absolutely fucked. There's no way Hollywood will not freak out when a Marvel movie opens to $23M over 4 days.
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I imagine most people will simply wait out the 45 days. It's a new IP, so it doesn't have the FOMO factor for a franchise film.
I feel really disappointed right now. And right after Idris Elba was cast as Knuckles, too.
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Just now, ThomasNicole said:
I just wonder if Disney will see FG results and delay SC or if they will suddenly put on PA.
The current ticket sale kickoff being right after Free Guy's opening weekend is no coincidence.
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Pretty safe to say that Deadline's "pessimistic" $19M projection might actually be an optimistic one. I won't be surprised if it ends up opening to numbers inbetween Old and Snake Eyes. I'm going with $15M myself, followed by another delaypocalypse and yet another hollow fall season for exhibitors.
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5 minutes ago, Eric Quinn said:
So...are we now allowed to say Delta's finally impacting stuff? Free Guy's collapse from everybody here is inexplicable and I'm getting a lot of "my fall plans/The Delta Variant" memes on my timeline today.
The fall slate is going to be even drier than Arrakis. Ironically Dune is likely the only blockbuster guaranteed for this year now
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I'm starting to think Black Widow might just be the only Marvel movie for this year. No way in hell those Shang-Chi tickets are going on sale next week. They can't do a dual release again thanks to ScarJo.
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Said exclusivity is neutered by it being only 45 days long, which a decent amount of people could know about and decide to just wait it out. That's a possibility.
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The Deadline projection for Free Guy is actually going to happen, isn't it?
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That review embargo isn't that early, only 4 days from release. So I'll keep my optimism cautious for now.
How is the movie, though? Have any of the usual insiders commented on this yet?
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That release date is absolute ass. Not only is it only 5 days after No Way Home, but it also launches on the exact same day as Matrix 4. Sounds like Disney doesn't have too much confidence in this and wants to quietly dump this much like Spies in Disguise.
This thing has been sitting on a shelf for 2 years now. Keep in mind, if it wasn't for the Disney takeover we would've seen this movie all the way back in November 2019.
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13 hours ago, EmpireCity said:
Tickets go on sale next Monday.
Right after Free Guy's opening weekend. Convenient. Gives them an easy out in case Free Guy underperforms.
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4 minutes ago, poweranimals said:
Is there any chance that Free Guy will open bigger than JC?
It's not impossible. Presales around the States seem to range from being on par with Jungle Cruise to better than it. We'll get a clearer picture within the next few days.
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Hugh Jackman? More like Hugh R. Susman!
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Important heads up: If you don't want the cameos some reviewers were alluding to spoiled, then do not read the Cast section of the Wikipedia page for this. Just saying.
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Free Guy doing $30M in its opening weekend isn't too unlikely. Anything beyond that will depend on how the presales go next week.
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So, who's going to move first? No Way Home is Sony's magnum opus, so I imagine they'll be the first.
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Now let's see if $30M is within reach for Funny Reddit Man's latest, and also if Don't Breathe 2 scores a double digit launch. A fun weekend is in order.