abracadabra1998

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-15, Day 1): Day: T-15 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 17 theaters 82 289 289 14652 1.97 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 239 239 82.7 MTC1: 201 201 69.55 Marcus: 33 33 11.42 Alamo: 24 24 8.3 Other chains: 31 31 10.73 Day 1 Comp: 1.67x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ?? T-15 Comp (also a Day 1 comp): 1.51x Hunger Games BoSS: $8.65 Million Really the only appropriate comps I have right now, but really great start here. Also really healthy non-MTC1 % right off the gate. We'll see how we go from here but very promising numbers!

I most certainly agree, but I sadly don't have it katniss has better comps for this flick for sure.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: American Society of Magical... (T-1): Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 11 theaters 24 3 37 1699 2.18 Comps: 0.31x Drive-Away Dolls: $110k 1.16x Book of Clarence: $330k 0.21x Iron Claw: $140k 0.23x Ferrari: $100k Even as I think this is underindexing here (hence my inclusion of Book of Clarence for reference), still dreadful. Let's go with $200k, +/- 50 as a final prediction. Usual warning that with lower sales comes way higher degree of error though. P.S. Not tracking it, but Love Lies Bleeding sales look really solid just from a cursory glance here!

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Arthur the King (T-1): Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 20 theaters 60 29 76 6039 1.26 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 0 0 0 MTC1: 42 14 55.26 Marcus: 15 4 19.74 Alamo: 4 4 5.26 Other chains: 15 7 19.74 Growth Rate (%): 1-Day: 61.7 3-Day: 181.48 Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses) 1.33x Ordinary Angels: $380k (NA, 111%) 0.51x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $300k (20%, 85%) 0.32x Haunting in Venice: $350k (18%, 90%) 0.14x Boys on the Boat: $250k (54%, NA) Average: $320k Very good final day, perhaps a sign of good things to come! Way better growth rates than all of my other comps (of course that is easy to do starting from such a low point). I am still eyeing Ordinary Angels as the most useful comp, since BotB was Sunday previews and the others are sequels/IP; put together with the great growth rates and my opinion that this will likely underindex here, I'll go with $500k, +/-100 as a final prediction.

Do you have EA numbers for the Fall Guy?

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: The Fall Guy (T-51, Day 1): Day: T-51, T-50 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold Thursday: 17 theaters 51 36 36 9691 0.37 Sunday May 1 EA: 13 theaters 16 34 34 3764 0.9 TOTALS: 67 70 70 13455 0.52 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 33 33 91.67 MTC1: 36 36 100 Marcus: 0 0 0 Alamo: 0 0 0 Other chains: 0 0 0 *Chart for Thursday previews only Day 1 Comps (versus all sales, including EA): 1.79x Argylle: $3.05 Million 0.95x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4.26 Million 1.49x Wonka: $5.21 Million 0.35x FNAF: $3.64 Million 1.46x Napoleon: $4.38 Million 2.41x The Monkey Man I know my comps are complete ass, but wanted to illustrate that this had a really solid start here. MTC1 driving all Thursday sales and Alamo driving around 90% of EA, so heads up: this market might overperform on Day 1 against other Alamo-less markets. I will update this on Thursday, then do weekly updates from then on until T-35, in which I will start my usual bi-weekly updates.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Arthur the King (T-2): Day: T-3 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 20 theaters 60 7 47 6039 0.78 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 0 0 0 MTC1: 28 2 59.57 Marcus: 11 5 23.4 Alamo: 0 0 0 Other chains: 8 0 17.02 Comps: Ordinary Angels: Missed 0.38x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $210k 0.23x Haunting in Venice: $255k 0.14x Boys on the Boat: $235k Average: $235k Just terrible.

Not bad, not bad at all

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: The Monkey Man (Day 1, T-24): Day: T-24 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 15 theaters 33 29 29 3961 0.73 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 16 16 55.17 MTC1: 19 19 65.52 Marcus: 0 0 0 Alamo: 10 10 34.48 Other chains: 0 0 0 Day 1 Comps: 0.74x Argylle: $1.26 Million 0.6x Napoleon: $1.81 Million 0.39x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $1.76 Million Argylle might be the best comp here, as it has the exact same sales window, it's not an IP, it might overperform with the urban cinephiles that my market has a lot of, etc. etc. Not a bad Day 1 for an original R-rated action movie, but we shall see where it goes from here

Porque no los dos? I do think it will underindex here (this movie screams Middle America and my sample is a bit too urban to fully capture that), but even so it is still underperforming. Still, a movie like this can break out late, so we shall see

The Grammy’s were on Paramount+ I believe and they had quite a rise in viewership, I still think if the Oscars did that they would do gangbuster numbers. They’re still the most popular awards show in town by far

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Arthur the King (T-3): Day: T-3 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 16 theaters 46 13 40 4370 0.92 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 0 0 0 MTC1: 26 7 65 Marcus: 6 4 15 Alamo: 0 0 0 Other chains: 8 2 20 Comps: 1.29x Ordinary Angels: $370k 0.5x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $275k 0.24x Haunting in Venice: $265k 0.14x Boys on the Boat: $245k Average: $290k

My comps aren’t the best (BFGW and Haunting are sequels), and @katnisscinnaplex numbers do look better there, but far from the Dog-style breakout that I was kind of expecting/wish for sadly

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Arthur the King (T-4): Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 15 theaters 41 27 27 3554 0.76 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 0 0 0 MTC1: 19 19 70.37 Marcus: 2 2 7.41 Alamo: 0 0 0 Other chains: 6 6 22.22 Comps: 1x Ordinary Angels: $285k 0.34x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $185k 0.21x Haunting in Venice: $235k Average: $235k Boys on the Boat comp tomorrow. American Society of Magical... (T-4): Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 7 theaters 14 17 17 1026 1.66 Comps: 0.27x Drive-Away Dolls: $95k 1.42x Book of Clarence: $405k 0.16x Iron Claw: $110k Thought this was gonna be in a lot more theaters, I'll keep tracking it but probably won't post more updates between now and T-1... feels like a waste

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-11): Day: T-11 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 19 theaters 106 29 354 19591 1.81 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 6 0 4.38 MTC1: 86 17 62.77 Marcus: 11 2 8.03 Alamo: 7 2 5.11 Other chains: 33 12 24.09 Comps: 1.25x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.63 Million 1.46x Wonka: $5.12 Million 0.82x BoSS: $4.73 Million 0.69x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.78 Million 2.07x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $6.42 Million 0.4x Indy 5: $2.9 Million Average: $4.76 Million Numbers pulled earlier than usual because of an Oscars watch party, and this should be the bottom of the U curve, but it's a bad update nonetheless. Rolling with these comps from now on, a bit all over the place but I'm really not sure how this is going to behave from here.

I loved Oppy, I thought it was the best movie of the year, and I hope it wins Best Picture, but I do hope we see varying in the other categories. I always find it a bit boring when the same movie wins a bunch of awards; not expecting it, but hoping for things like Zone of Interest for Sound, Giamatti for Actor, etc etc

Feels like Kung Fu Panda has kinda become popular again (a la How to Train Your Dragon) for peeps in their 20s, perhaps a bit of nostalgia for those IPs from our childhood (Shrek too, but that was never not popular)

Sticking to my guns worked out alright 😄 Trolls comp was spot on to the dot, Migration super close too. Wish with TUE ATP and Wonka with PLF ATP kinda cancel each other out a bit, starting to feel pretty good about my family/animated comps in this market. For Inside Out 2, I have a feeling the early sales are gonna blow KFP4 out of the water, there was some early Panda interest from grown-ups for sure but it was a bit of a slowburner and then we saw the family walk-ups. Maybe I’m totally wrong but it seems to me the grown-up interest will be much stronger and it will be more frontloaded. Same with Minions 2, the grown-up interest surged later on I believe. Still gonna use Panda as a comp but I’m expecting it to start hella high and drop as sales go on

I remember Jat saying something on here about Minions 2 like “guys… this is the first time in a while we absolutely missed the train that was coming” totally butchered the quote but really crystallized how insane its last week was I wasn’t tracking at the time but it was still a fun one to lurk for 😁

Maybe Minne didn’t overshoot too much after all 👀 good to hear about walk-ups! This and Dune co-existing is awesome for the marketplace

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (T-14): Day: T-14 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 17 theaters 92 67 325 17219 1.89 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 257 61 79.08 MTC1: 173 31 53.23 Marcus: 40 5 12.31 Alamo: 55 19 16.92 Other chains: 57 12 17.54 Comps: 1.27x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.71 Million 0.96x TMNT (w/ EA): $5.29 Million 0.39x FNAF: $4.09 Million 0.4x Indy 5: $2.9 Million Average: $4.5 Million Changed up the comps a bit, will add BoSS at T-11 (giving it a few more days to "catch up" since it had only been on sale for two days at T-14).

Yep, exactly what you said in regards to the night and group sales. Also, I’ve noticed more singular ticket sales, also not super usual in family type movies. Does it matter a ton? Probably not. But in a movie with less volume pre-sales compared to say a blockbuster like Dune it can make a tad difference for sure

Something I neglected to include in my post, which on further though I probably should have, is that while public schools are not in spring break in the twin cities for the most part, the largest university in town (and state) is. Might just help explain why my numbers seem to be a bit larger than others, why it’s finishing stronger than in other samples, and also the MTC1 overindex compared to other animated comps. Should have probably included that in my analysis and as a result my prediction would lower a bit, but too late, I’ll just…

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Imaginary (T-1): Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 20 theaters 36 15 105 3391 3.1 Growth Rate (%): 1-Day: 16.67 3-Day: 81.03 Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses): 0.59x Thanksgiving: $590k (24%, 89%) 0.31x Exorcist Believer: $885k (23%, 73%) 0.76x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $570k (34%, 130%) 0.34x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $425k (38%, 145% --> Just Thursday) 1.28x The Invitation: $990k (N/A) Average: $690k My comps have a myriad of problems (Exorcist- known IP; Talk To Me- EA; The Invitation- less theaters tracked at the time). The ones that don't point to sub 600, but I'll go with $650k, +/- 50. Don't have a ton of PG-13 so I might be way off here though. Cabrini (T-1): Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 20 theaters 30 24 323 2482 13.01 Growth Rate (%): 1-Day: 8.03 3-Day: 29.72 Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses): 1.3x After Death: $520k (7%, 45%) 0.46x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $655k (N/A, 33%) 1.09x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $855k (N/A, 41%) 1.24x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $945k (N/A, 46%) 1.81x The Shift (w/ EA): $675k (4%, 23%) Average: $730k I think that average is too high, as this should behave less like the Chosen series (Opening Day, established IP) and more like a standard faith-based, limited-previews Angel Studios fare. I'll put this at $600k, +/- 50.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews: Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-1): Day: T-1 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold Totals: 20 theaters 153 216 754 19436 3.88 Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage: PLFs: 75 28 9.95 MTC1: 394 116 52.25 Marcus: 122 39 16.18 Alamo: 52 18 6.9 Other chains: 186 43 24.67 Growth Rate (%): 1-Day: 40.15 3-Day: 120.47 Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses): 1.21x Wonka: $4.25 Million (21%, 69%) 1.75x Wish (TUE): $3.15 Million (27%, 65%) 1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million (47%, 115%) 2.58x Migration: $3.72 Million (30%, 145%) 2.92x Trolls (THU): $3.8 Million (30%, 101%) Average: $3.72 Million I figured out what happened with that one theater, they just hid the existing showtimes for a day when they added the new ones, so today's sales are inflated by 11 tickets (same with yesterday's being deflated by 11). If I adjust for that the one-day growth rate actually becomes 35%. Still a super strong day, of course, but I have to note that the MTC1 % is way higher than Migration (34%), Trolls (30%), or Wish (31%). Much more akin to Wonka's (57%), which I still think indicates less family and more adult interest, which might not be the best for walk-ups. Still, based on my numbers, let's go with $3.7 Million, +/- 0.3. Maybe too bullish looking at others' numbers, but I gotta agree with @Porthos's mindset: I'll stick to my own guns!