DDL is a lock and his situation is uncomparable to Streep`s because he is in the baitiest role since ever. Streep`s nominations between her second and third win were not undeniable and quite a few were "Because she`s Streep" rather than because she really was better than the next actress vying for the 5th spot. Lets be realistic here. Julia Child is not Lincoln. Not even close.What DDL also has on his side is that his movie is a bone fide blockbuster and he has swept most precursors so far. His biggest competitor, as far as critics go, was Phoenix who may get a snub altogether. So unless SAG and GG drastically change the wind (DDL is winning BAFTA, that`s a given) , he`s winning his third.I`ll repeat this one more time. This is a strange year where many frontrunners are past winners and even recent winners (Bigelow and her now ex boytoy Lipstick). So unless absolutely all members are so careful to push only first-timers (Affleck, Cooper, Hathaway), there will be couple or more past winners winning again. And of those potentials DDL looks the most solid.