Leo won`t win as long as he campaigns half-heartedly. People who win say they want to win. Or get influencial Hollywood stars say that for them. Or both. Cotillard is an example of an aggressive campaigner which locked her win when everyone thought Julie Christie had it in the purse. Melissa Leo, lol, yeah. Winslet had the Best Actress Time cover for The Reader. Celebs are rallying behind Impossible and naomi Watts. Brody won not only because he campaigned like his life depands on it but he got his direct competitors Nicholson and DDL pull for him. Waltz was aslo campaigning like crazy.So, yeah. There are rules and if you don`t play by them then your fans shouldn`t be too upset if you are snubbed for you obviously don`t want the statue badly enough to cross some lines of good taste.