For a comparision, Sherlock Holmes 2, another holiday period movie that, coincidentally enough, was called a "disaster" after it sported just under $40 OW, managed to hit a 4.5X muliplier for nearly 190 DOM. I had a lot of fun calling out the trolls who said that SH2 was a bomb, after the legs kicked in. Will trolls do the same on this occasion? If the Hobbit hits an OW of "only" 85, and ends up with 350, will the trolls eat the crow?
PS, the Hobbit could open with 50M this weekend, and the studio would be all but guaranteed to make money in the final analysis.