SoSaysI
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Posts posted by SoSaysI
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3 minutes ago, YourMother said:
Even though recent DC movies barring WW have opened alongside tracking (SS, BVS) or overestimated (Lego Batman, MOS (I believe)), I can’t see JL under a $125M OW.
Agree. It doesn't seem to have $150M+ type buzz but I also can't see it opening below Thor and It.
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3 minutes ago, mredman said:
So right now JL is doing better
No, he just posted that he counted 11.4 for JL. So that is actually below those films.
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10 minutes ago, Nova said:
There are plenty of reasons to think that its previews to opening weekend will be comparable to other DCEU films. For one it's a DC film. Two it's aimed at females and female films tend to be more frontloaded. Three it's also a comic book film and those tend to be more frontloaded.
Having said all of that....there are some who believe that its presales will kick in, in the coming week and that it'll get really good WOM which would help its OW multiplier and legs down the stretch.
But like I don't understand this notion of acting like WW isn't going to be frontloaded...and this is someone who thinks it will be backloaded...but it's not because I have actual evidence/reasons of it. Just that it's a hunch I have. But like I don't expect $12M in previews to become a $140M OW anymore than I expect a $17M OW to become a $200M+ OW for WW. And $31M in previews? There's zero evidence to show it's doing that. Absolutely none.
I would actually say the evidence shows that there is no way WW is doing anywhere near $31 million in previews.
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55 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:
Why did I raise my GOTG prediction?
Alien is dropping 60%+ on Memorial Weekend. Let that sink in for a moment
Not saying it will happen again but GOTG has been underpredicted every weekend based on early Friday numbers.
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9 hours ago, Juby said:
It will beat AoU numbers. The #7 spot is in the game.
Overseas or world wide? This isn't getting close to 1.4 billion.
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1 minute ago, Harley said:
This is doing well enough prequels or spinoffs aren't out of the question.
http://deadline.com/2017/03/beauty-and-the-beast-sean-bailey-disney-emma-watson-1202047710/
That sounds like a horrendous idea even if this is going to clear $500 mil domestically and over a billion worldwide. The Beauty and the Beast story is very self contained. Where exactly is there to branch out?
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30 minutes ago, JB33 said:
Yeah, but even taking that into account this is a big drop. Just wasn't expecting it. Hopefully you're right about the good jumps today.
Go take a look at the drops from Sunday to Monday for January 9 from 2011.
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That drop for Rogue One from Sunday's number seems very normal when looking at the Sunday to Monday drops for the same day and date from 2011.
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I have to say I find it hilarious that the Avatar fans are the on a that criticize another movie the most for having an unoriginal plot when that movie's plot is the same of a ton of movies that have come before it and every character in the film is a cliche.
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1 minute ago, Chewy said:
Yeah really curious to see its legs, trying to remember a huge movie that will alienate kids to the extent this one does. Maybe TDKR? But by that point parents weren't expecting kid-friendly
Based on what? The kids I saw it with (10 and 12) loved it and it seems like exit polling said kids liked it as well.
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Just now, The Futurist said:
The fanbase in America for SW is way more rabid than for Potter.
That might be true but Potter movies have been more frontloaded than Star Wars films.
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9 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
No more likes but @DeeCee nailed it so far. Nice going man!
Yeah, I'd be very interested to see how Rogue One is holding on day 2 in Australia. That is probably actually the best indicator we have for how the rest of this weekend will go in the US. Obviously a great number doesn't mean Rogue One will do great the rest of the weekend here or vice versa but that is probably the best predictor we can have for the rest of this weekend.
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Just now, Cmasterclay said:
That's one example. One example does not equal evidence.
No it doesn't. But what are your counter examples? This is uncharted territory since this is the first Star Wars film that is not part of the main series. Why would this be more frontloaded than Twilight films?
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1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:
$180m is dead sorry. I'd put money on it now.
I tend to agree. I don't see how this goes higher than Batman v. Superman or CA3. I think a number in that range is still possibly in play but that is almost certainly the high end.
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4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
With a weekend IM from the preview of 4.5, only slightly less than TFA, this does 130.5 OW. That means baumer's club would be looking real good, FWIW. And honestly, I think its multiplier from preview might be even worse. I'd love for someone to explain to me how an adult-oriented spinoff for the fans will be more backloaded than the broadly appealing TFA. I just don't get it.
This same thing could have been said for Fantastic Beasts like a month ago.
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3 minutes ago, Alli said:
Only 30M? so the 50% OS drop will happen domestic too. disappointing
We don't have actual numbers yet.
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Just now, Bishop54 said:
Gareth Edwards is off to a roaring start in regards to blockbusters lol.
Godzilla was a pretty big hit and this will be a big hit. So despite your sarcasm, yes, he is off to a good start in regards to blockbusters. Russia wasn't big for TFA either. -
6 minutes ago, James said:
So with the OD estimates from Russia Rogue One actually made even less than 1/3 of TFA...
While the other overseas numbers may be indicative of how this will do around the world and in the USA, Russia is irrelevant. TFA wasn't really that big there and wasn't well liked which is obviously not the case in most countries.
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2 hours ago, Olive said:
If only this could make as much as those cheap movies such as SLOP or Minions.
Especially since it is an infinitely better movie than anything Illumination has made.
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22 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
Yeah, but you make some stupid-ass clubs that are more targeted against anything Disney-related.
Remember your "Finding Dory under $210M-club"? Fail.
Your "Doctor Strange under $150M"-club? Fail.
And now, your "Fantastic Beasts to crush Moana by $200M"-club? Well, guess what? FAIL!
And about you cheerfully admitting you loss?....Honestly, I don't think you're gonna learn something from failing 3 times this year. Cause you're gonna keep doing the same shit with other overly-lowballing clubs for upcoming Disney films.
Like, what's next? Beauty and the Beast under $100M? Guardians of the Galaxy 2 under $200M? Pfft! Give me a break!
I admit.....following the box office is fun. But you creating clubs like those 3.....that's just dumb.
Don't forget that he also created quite possibly the dumbest club ever to be created on this board with his Fox to beat Disney in 2016 club when Fox is going to lose to Disney this year by well over $1 billion and Disney was already guaranteed to beat Fox by the time he started that club.
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6 minutes ago, yjs said:
I remember that guy who made the Fox over Disney 2016 club made another club saying FB will overperform Moana by $200M. ?
That guy is a troll or stupid and all of his posts reflect that.
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11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:
It's a major red flag towards massive RO expectations. Baumer's club is very much in play.
Maybe but people also used Jurassic World and the Force Awakens success to project that Independence Day would do huge numbers this year.
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1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:
Damn, under 40m is actually possible for SS. Just awful. Luckily for WB it was so huge in its first week.
WB's marketing team deserves huge raises for getting people interested in their horrible movies this year. Incredible job by them.
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1 minute ago, Lestranger said:
ID4R failure is a marketing failure. This was a great time to release a sequel. Nostalgia for the original will never be higher. They just dropped the ball with the marketing. It looks flaccid, every single frame of it. It looked like a boring version of Transformers. The quality of the film is nearly irrelevant for OW on a movie like this. This should have opened in low 100s with no problem at all. Fox face planted.
Agreed. While the critic reviews for this haven't been good so far, they aren't bad enough where they would have made people decide not to see the film if there was legitimate excitement and buzz for this. Every piece of marketing made this movie look as boring and wooden as possible.
THE JUSTICE LEAGUE (and The Star and Wonder) WEEKEND THREAD | PREMIUM ACCOUNT SALE NOW LIVE | Weekend Actuals ~ JL 93.84M, W 27.54M, T:R 21.66M, DH2 14.43M, MOTOE 13.80M, TS 9.81M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Yikes, if this falls on the low end of that range it could miss $90M for the weekend.