MovieMan89

I think SLOP is probably their best because it achieves what it sets out to. Basically just trying to be crazy ADD comedic slapstick. Minions also tries this, but fails miserably. All their others try some combination of that as well as also having more heart and dramatic heft, but none of them succeed fully in both categories.

I hope it's not like CW, personally. That one was a bit too joyless and I just don't think the hero vs hero concept works as well for CBMs. Anyways, Homecoming is something entirely different for the MCU. You probably wouldn't like GotG2 if you don't like 1, but I will say it has more depth and heart.

Phase 3 post CW has been nothing like that movie. Just sayin.

Exactly what I've been saying. You have factual historical data to show why a sub 2.5x multi for a 200 opener is extremely unlikely, unprecedented actually, and yet some want to claim they know IW will be just as frontloaded as CW no matter what. Gimme a break.

Yes, let’s compare a 400m grosser to a potential 700m+ one. Makes perfect sense!

If I had one and only one wish for this forum it would be to never have to see IW compared to CW as an accurate box office gauge ever again...

And if it pulls a TDK/TA/JW and drops closer to 50%, what then?

I'm wondering if this might end up with their longest runtime, possibly over 2 hours? The first already has their second longest runtime, clocking in at 115 mins. It would also explain why they could show so much of the stay at home dad/elastigirl solo part in the trailer but only have that be maybe one act of the film.

I guess we just have fundamental disagreements in terms of how casuals will respond to the film then. Granted, my whole argument could all be a wash if it turns out the film gets underwhelming or divisive reception. Then I absolutely agree it would drop like a rock after the huge OW. But I'm arguing on the basis of assuming the film will deliver given MCU's amazing track record in that department lately and how long they've been building to this one.

And I disagree completely with everything you say here. The movie would not on track for a record OW if "casuals just don't care that much" and IW is for the "hardcore fans." That's just not how box office works. DH2 is the only time the OW record has gone down in such a scenario, and again it was due to an absurd midnight number. IW has been positioned as a true event film that is going to be in the collective consiousness. Everyone who has seen an MCU film at some point will at least be aware of it and it's not going to take a ton of convincing to get a lot of those people to go if it captures the zeitgeist. They already have familiarity with it, just like DH2 was able to retain about 80% of Sorcerer's Stone audience in spite of the retention rate being way lower for the 6 films between. We're not talking about needing a huge audience of people who have never seen an MCU film in order to reach 700 or even 800 numbers here. I'd be willing to bet if we take TA's adjusted gross and add it to the BP gross that came solely from people who had never seen an MCU film, we'd have a number approaching the 900m ballpark. Now I'm not predicting a TFA total or anything, but it is worth noting that IW might not have to capture any new audience at all to make what TFA did. It's slightly possible it could do it with just all of the audience who have seen MCU films returning. That's how huge the audience precedent is for this franchise at this point. Opposed to DH2, which would have had to inexplicably find a solid 200m worth of brand new audience over even Sorcerer's Stone in order to hit 600 at the time.

Halloween is a slasher horror series. It's almost impossible to justify PG-13 for that subgenre. Supernatural horror/thriller is entirely different. You can easily get away with PG-13 there.

TA and BP have both proven that MCU is very much a franchise with the capability of appealing to everyone. Most of the time it stays within its target audience, but it's broken out of that at least twice (maybe three times if you wanna argue AoU's reach extended a bit beyond that as well). TA and BP have been just as huge in first run admissions as most Star Wars movies, even bigger than about half of them. This isn't Potter or The Hunger Games where the ceiling has a very definitive cap and it's incapable of true casual reach.

All these 2.1-2.4x predictions being thrown around. If it's well liked, I don't see how it goes below 2.5x. Considering it has 3 full weekends all to itself, I don't even think 3x would be completely out if the WOM is good enough.

If I need to explain why MCU isn't Harry Potter after the 18th film in the franchise opened 40m higher than any of them and had a 3.5x multi, then I don't know what to tell you. Same goes for if I need to explain why event films that capture the pop culture zeitgeist and are well liked don't get shit multis (DH2 was an event midnight, not an event on the whole).

Hey, don't expand it then. Just saying if the demand for it that weekend is greater than what the TC count is, Disney will have been dumb not to have done it. And what's unnatural about audience demand? Though quite honestly, BP will still be in so many theaters when IW opens, an expansion probably isn't necessary. Just holding on to what it has.

Of course it's more likely the people interested in IW might be interested in seeing BP more than Rampage. Whether that be a repeat time or casuals getting caught up in the IW hype who still haven't seen BP. We've never had a case where an event film has still been relevant at the box office when the next event film in the franchise releases. It could have a very positive effect on BP as everyone is swept up in Marvel madness that weekend.

Disney needs to get an expansion for BP on the 4/27 weekend. I'm positive the potential to pick up IW sell out spillovers is huge for it.

Such a silly comparison. DH2 was an event midnight number and nothing else. It performed just like the franchise had for years after that midnight. IW is going to be an event everything on OW. Its previews might very well be the least impressive aspect of its OW. Movies like that don't just fall off the cliff unless they get toxic WOM. And somehow I feel confident saying that won't be the case.

Lmao, it's clearly a mess up with the TC. It didn't lose 99% of its TC in one weekend after making over 3m last weekend. 1,112 is surely the correct TC. Bad Friday hold though. Unless Sat does something amazing, 100m looks off again.

Ikr, seems too low.

IT 2 and Wonder Woman 2 are guaranteed monster profits for them, so that alone definitely puts them in a much better spot than this year. Godzilla and Shazam are very much up in the air, due to the bad reception of its predecessor for the former and the bad state of its franchise on the whole for the latter. Both have definite potential to turn things around though with effective marketing and a film that delivers. LEGO I could actually see being a huge meltdown inducing box office disappointment around here, akin to HTTYD2. The franchise already feels played out, even though this is the first mainline sequel.

Lmao, yeah that's what I meant. If it has a similar budget as The Boss with a similar DOM and OS performance, again we'd probably be looking at breakeven territory. It wouldn't surprise me at all if O8 is the first movie of the year WB sees a true profit on. Before anyone attacks me to say none of us know for sure if a movie is profitable until we get actual reports, I'm well aware of that. I'm just basing it on general box office rules of thumb here.

Agreed, for the most part. O8 and The Nun would be easy wins on those DOM grosses alone. FB would definitely be profitable with that DOM once OS is added in. Hard to get an idea on the budgets of stuff like I Feel Pretty, Tag, and Crazy Rich Asians (I'd hope below $50m for all). But all the rest would likely need huge OS performances to not be breakevens at best with those DOM grosses.

That crazy WOM is coming man. Just wait until you see the jump next weekend. By the time IW opens, RPO will be taking away its screens.

Who are these people, just out of curiosity? The guy with the Disney castle in his avatar perhaps? I know you don't mean me of course, since I have expressed dissatisfaction with the Fox acquisition and Disney's recent treatment of Star Wars...