MovieMan89

@Porthos 100m looking rosier. Time to breakout the spreadsheet again.

I think Aladdin is way more of a wildcard than people are expecting. Don't see it as a surefire box office juggernaut at all, especially with its director. Ritchie has never even come close to a $1b grosser, even with an a list star like RDJ in an iconic role, and that's because his films have a very definitive style that isn't appealing to everyone. I could easily see Aladdin doing something like 300/450 (which would still be a huge success for it). The Lion King, TA 4, IX, and Frozen should be $1b locks though. Something went very very wrong otherwise. Homecoming 2 is a strong possibility after the first got close to 900. Wouldn't take much of an increase in most markets, and when do MCU sequels to the solo films not increase quite honestly? TS4 and SLOP2 should have decent chances as well, though the direct competition from each other could stop both. Hobbs & Shaw is a contender just because of China and The Rock's inherent superstar status worldwide right now. Bond and Wonder Woman 2 have a small chance because of the huge OS popularity and potential added appeal of being Craig's last hurrah in the case of the former, and the potential for big increases in every OS market as a first sequel to a breakout film for the latter. Everything will pretty much have to go right for either of those to make it though. Finally, Godzilla vs Kong is a big wildcard, because both of the last two films in each respective franchise did 500m+ worldwide. Each of them would probably be headed for about $700m if they were individual sequels, so you never know, bringing them both together might be a big enough event to hit the $1b mark. Like the TA of monster movies. So basically, yeah there's a shit ton of potential for $1b grossers next year, and it should definitely set a new record for amount of them.

Nor near as driven as the YA audience, aka what made BatB's OW.

I guess Jumanji, surprisingly. I mean at least with WW the potential was always there for a huge blockbuster, but Jumanji had zero business grossing 400m DOM under any circumstance. And a 4x multi in summer for CBM is insane, but Jumanji basically did what Avatar did with its multi, and how much more insane does it get than being equivalent to one of the Cameron juggertwin's legs?

Depends on the split. If it did just 60m DOM, then yeah 200 WW wouldn't have been good enough. Wih 100m DOM though, I don't see why it would have needed more than another 100 OS.

Lol, well that's a little better. Though I don't see why it couldn't break even around the 200 mark WW given 100m from DOM? There's no way that $250m P&A number you pulled is legit.

57m is still about twice as much as WiT will end up with OS though... WiT's OS performance is certainly a disaster for the record books in this day and age of big budget Hollywood movies.

You're right, what we all should really be discussing is: Will there be a Ready Player Two?

Is it safe to assume TR2 would decrease DOM? The bar is already so low and you look at something like Resident Evil which set a similarly low bar DOM with abysmal legs but still increased for the sequel. I think the DOM performance is weak enough that there might be nowhere to go but up. So that puts it back in the ballpark of how profitable OS was for them and if a sequel would be equally profitable with a similar OS gross.

Yes but DOM gross is what the studio gets the most of. I'm sure any studio would rather have a decent DOM performance/flop OS than the other way around. It's just typically the other way around that ends up happening in reality. That's why this whole TR sequel debate keeps getting brought up in spite of the great OS gross.

Again, making the budget back DOM goes a long way for a movie. True Disney flops/bombs like Alice 2, Lone Ranger, Mars Needs Moms, John Carter, and Tomorrowland made a mere fraction of their budgets DOM.

It won't be profitable with such a pathetic OS haul, but I don't think you can call it a bomb. That requires the studio lost a lot of money on it, and they won't lose that much on a movie that cost $100m and at least made that back DOM.

^ Sorry, I was just being facetious cause the tweet says "official" so much.

But is it official?

Sub 30m has to be the biggest big budget OS bomb in ages. That's just practically unheard of today. Disney chose the right film to finally be budget conscious on opposed to throwing $200m+ at anything and everything like they normally do. That would have been a disaster for WiT.

Lol, what? Who said anything about Solo missing 100m? It's impossible for AM2 to miss that too if that's the benchmark.

So what's looking like a likely OS total?

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? It will make back its budget DOM, so that's always a good thing in terms of not being too big of a money loser, but that OS performance....dear lord is that bleak. Is it even going to open in many more markets? Is it already almost done at 21m? TR and WiT have what the other needs, lol.

Although I do also think the TR marketing kinda screamed "wait for Netflix" to those who might have a minor interest in it, so I am curious to see if it has a strong streaming/rental performance.

I must admit, I really don't understand how TR is struggling for a 2.5x multi DOM. It's easily superior to most of the trash video game adaptations of the past and it's not like competition was fierce or something. I'm wondering if maybe there was just too much of a stigma to overcome given it's both a video game adaptation and the franchise that every one associates with video game movies in the first place. I think too many people just assumed it would be trash and just being a decent action/adventure movie wasn't enough to overcome that. Would have probably had to be really exceptional. Most people outside of the 80's kid arcade set never having heard of the Rampage video game is definitely huge plus for it.

Yeah, Snow White, Alice, PRU, and Greek Wedding (lol) all waited too long. If a TR sequel got inexplicably made 5 years from now, then yes I would be completely on board with it decreasing across the board OS. The rest weren't really the "franchise film" type, as you said. TMNT2 though is definitely a valid point and does at least prove that a dropoff OS could be possible for a sequel, even though I wouldn't call it likely.

The OS performance is good, that's not delusion. If the movie had made 100m DOM instead of 60, no one would even be questioning a sequel right now.

Oprah's live action 100m track record is pretty damn solid. Only Beloved and Selma throwing a wrench in there if WiT makes it. Edit: Oops, nevermind, The Color Purple just missed too. So I guess it's not that solid since it's only like 1 out of 5 atm.

Good points. Wow, I hadn't realized Turtles 2 dropped that much OS, that was a pretty nasty fall. I still think a sequel to TR will at least be considered, and I think the decision will be made based on whatever the profit (or lack thereof) turns out to be.