MovieMan89

Deadline can make thinly backed assertions that families were showing up all they want, I'm telling you the actual age breakdown for the weekend proves it wasn't playing like any typical family film. That has nothing to do with kids not showing up at all. There are kids that show up to any PG-13 blockbuster. Tomb Raider's age breakdown on OW wasn't much different, are you going to argue with me that played like a "family film?" Black Panther had a lower over 25 skew than Rampage, didn't see people going around here attributing its holds to being a "family film." WiT was a family film. Peter Rabbit was. Rampage most certainly is not.

Well you're right that BP could just miss, but IW is only missing if it doesn't deliver. And yeah, I'll admit I'm pretty damn confident in it delivering.

Lmao, Rampage is not a "family" movie, nor did it play like one this weekend. The Sat increase was due to the deflated Friday because of F13 and a popular horror option available. If anyone needs further proof the audience was 2/3 over 25 on OW. That's not even close to a typical family film split.

Are we really going to get another year with two 700+ CBMs though? And it's not like any of the others aren't going to do really well, with the exception of maybe Venom. 2018 will be an insane bar to beat.

This will definitely go down as the peak year of the CBM, imo. We are going to get the #1 and #3 all time biggest adjusted CBMs in the same year. And IW may never be beaten in the genre.

So BP is looking at 696 with TA's multi from here. Definitely gonna need that IW boost to get to 700 I think.

50m hopes seem gone, but maybe 40 can happen. I'd be interested to know the kid demo breakdown for it this weekend now that it expanded so much. It's a pretty tame PG-13, I really think 8 and above would be fine. There's Disney animated movies that are more disturbing.

Where do TL's legs from here get it with that actual? 97ish is my rough calculation. If it got to 98m on its own, there's always the possibility of fudge, but that's unlikely.

Didn't realize just how abysmal PRU's multi is looking to be. Only 2.1x.

My rough guesstimate early forecast for the drops in the top 12 IW weekend: BP: -18% ICOI: -50% Isle of Dogs: -50% AQP: -55% I Feel Pretty: -58% Blockers: -60% Acrimony: -65% Ready Player One: -70% Rampage: -70% Truth or Dare: -74% Super Troopers: -78%

Come on now, you know good and well if you follow box office that a comedy getting a 5x multi if it has great WOM isn't unheard of. Horror getting a 5x multi on the other hand is basically unheard of, unless you're Get Out.

Good point about the college demo, they could have definitely abused the heck out of MP in the summer with the old plan.

It's more summer that matters. IW is the kick off to that. Most will have way more movies they want to see in the summer, and it's certainly possible some who have known about MP could have been holding off until that. Based on the subscription I have, people could have signed up just for May and gotten IW+DP2+Solo for basically the price of one and then cancelled.

My question is, are those of us that signed up at the $9.95 monthly/movie a day plan just going to be able to keep going on that? I'd bet probably not too long.

I think that's essentially what it was before late last year when they slashed prices drastically.

Moviepass is way less tempting now with their current offer, so that could certainly negate any rush of new subscriptions for IW. I honestly wouldn't sign up for it with that offer, the one movie a day thing is the big hook for me. 4 movies a month is a drastically different and less appealing hook.

Those legs seem generous to me given IW's imminence. PRU will only get like a 2.1x os-china OW. TR's would be like 2.3x if you add its first batch of OS openings to its main one the next weekend.

But IW is about to destroy the world in a couple weeks. Will Rampage's legs really hold up anywhere once it hits?

How's it getting to 400m? Anything over a 2.5x multi for its OS OW seems very unlikely for this kind of film, and 90m is about the ceiling DOM given IW in a couple weeks. 350m or so WW seems likely. That would put it in almost the exact same position as Tomb Raider in both its DOM and WW ratio to its budget. Not that I've ever called TR a flop, because I've argued it's probably either broken even or been mildly profitable. But plenty of people have been quick to dismiss it as a bomb and say a sequel isn't happening. So those same people should be staying consistent with what they're saying about Rampage.

It would have been damn impressive to see a studio get all 100m grossers for every release in a year. Something like that is just an insane box office feat that would have been cool to see any studio pull off. Especially since WiT is going to literally get within 3-4m. Things were looking so good last weekend too.

For the record, I do agree with you that it's pretty impossible to say what the multi will be right now with no one having seen the film yet. I'm not arguing that there's no way IW gets a poor multi, obviously a film that disappoints or divides audiences would lead to that. And yeah, something too part 1-ish/cliffhanger-ish could be bad for WOM. I'm just arguing against those claiming it's locked into a CW-esque multi. It absolutely is not. It very well could defy the multi odds the exact same way every non-TLJ 200 opener before it did. All of those movies had being a true event in common, and all of them except TLJ had being true audience pleasers in common. That's what I'm banking on IW being, and if it is then there's no way I will back out of my 2.5-3x multi range.

Sgt. Stubby is what happens when a movie has no marketing campaign whatsoever. But hey, it coulda been worse considering there are movies that have opened in a similar number of theaters and done sub 500k on OW.

The trailer isn't as good as the first one. Basically I'm still no surer in deciding if I think this will be a more modest 100m hit or a real summer breakout.

Maybe Dwayne informed WB execs he already announced to the world that he had broken the video game curse, so they better get on top of making it a reality.

Yeah, IW really looks nothing like CW to me from the trailers, but alrighty then if that's the impression some are getting.