MovieMan89

If this one made a profit, then why wouldn't the next? Again, I don't understand the logic for expecting drop offs everywhere OS? It should be the opposite. And how much worse could it really do DOM? It's already pretty damn low there. If TR pulled a healthy profit even in spite of DOM, then what would they have to lose for a similarly budgeted sequel?

That statement seems entirely unfounded. That's highly unusual for first sequels to drop across the board OS unless the first was already a flop or studios wait forever between installments (PRU). TR was a mini breakout OS. There should be only potential for growth there, regardless of what would happen DOM.

Like I said, it definitely comes down to profit. There's valid reason to believe TR could have turned a nice profit given its budget to WW gross ratio, but as you said it's not hard evidence. If there is a nice profit though, I don't know why the sequel wouldn't get made. The movie was literally made with the intention of leading directly into a sequel. It's a different thing than a movie made with sequel potential, but let's wait and see how it does kind of thing. It was clearly already planned for TR to have a sequel when they made this one, so that's why if it also turned a profit it wouldn't make much sense for it not to happen.

Lmao, those first two were certainly not put out with the intention of being franchises. In the case of the last two, they easily made enough both DOM and OS to go ahead with a sequel if that was really the intention. Blair Witch made 4x its budget DOM alone. Obviously a sequel wasn't made for other reason besides profitability. And in the case of Bourne, I'm sure it will happen sooner or later. XXX 3 is really the only decent comparison there, though if Diesel wanted a sequel I'm sure it would get made and it very well still might. It definitely made enough WW for Paramount to greenlight it if Diesel wants it. Pretty much all up to him.

TR is an unusual case. Both sides are right here. Movies that make 3x+ their budget and set up a franchise almost always get a sequel. Movies that make sub 60m DOM and cost 90m+ almost never get a sequel. So which side wins? I think it's obvious: if the movie was comfortably profitable for WB they will go ahead with a sequel. And lol at Vikander leaving, I wouldn't be surprised if she's the extra push that gets it made since she seems pretty damn passionate about the role and crafting her character in the first.

I honestly haven’t seen either yet, so I’ll refrain from a WTF, but that still gets at least an Oscar from moi.

Not a perfect comparison since the expansion pattern has been a little different, but Isle of Dogs continues to look like it will do a little better than Moonrise Kingdom, or at least on par. Outpacing it's 5th weekend cume when that was in 400 theaters.

The good news for BP next weekend is that even though it will lose a lot of theaters, it's TC holds have been so amazing the past few weekends that it could lose a whopping 1,000 and still be on an even playing field with the likes of TFA and TA in their 9th weekends.

BP's total with these movie's holds from this point: TA - 695 TFA - 702 JW - 710

WiT's worst case scenario now should be about 98m. That's TL holds from here out, which had some really nasty holds after this weekend. So 100 seems pretty likely.

It's crazy how few admissions it needs to sell more of than TA's OW to break the OW record.

And much like back then, there are also far less movies that are hitting the blockbuster mark at all. Since last summer, we’ve had IT, Thor, Jumanji, TLJ, and BP for genuine blockbusters. Of course back then it was simply a matter of nowhere near the volume of big budget type popcorn flicks as today. Now it’s more of a feast or famine dynamic.

Insane previews for AQP. What if it ends up the biggest pre summer grosser of the year after BP?

Mamma Mia could honestly be getting crazy overlooked around here. The first adjusts to nearly $200m and musicals have been back with a vengeance at the box office in the past two years. It’s also in a great counter programming spot for females. Much of the same audience that ate up TGS could give MM2 a similar gross.

Ant-man is probably more of a sure thing than Solo at this point. Mamma Mia and Christopher Robin should also be moved to solid bets and Crazy Rich Asians should be added to wild cards. Otherwise, agreed.

Actually, it started out rotten, so if you look at it that way it's crazy how much higher it still is... Spielberg's popcorn flicks are destined to get 70 something critical reception for the rest of his days.

This probably could have been 200+ huge DOM if they had released it on Tomb Raider's date. As it is, there's just no way legs are going to be very good once IW desolates the rest of the moviegoing landscape.

Ugh, Deadline is annoying. If they don't even have the sense to predict higher than TLJ's OW given all those stats they just listed, then they shouldn't bother giving a projection at all. Anyways, the release date isn't gonna matter one bit for its OW potential. As the stats show, there's barely a difference in schools out between those two weekends anyways. Never stopped the first weekend of May from being the go to OW record setter before. The one and only thing I thought could maybe dampen OW a little bit about the move was if some people weren't aware of it. But given unaided awareness for it is at an all time high, gonna go ahead and say that's not gonna be an issue at all.

It's a family film, it doesn't need a lot of theaters left to keep grossing for weeks. It still has another weekend to play in a decent amount of theaters. If it can get to 95m within two weeks, it should be able to add another $5m or so playing <700 screens for the rest of its run.

I see it doing extremely well with the family demographic, much like The Jungle Book. I don't see a ton of appeal outside of that, besides maybe the childless 90's kids adult demo like myself.

It could stay above 1m on Wednesday if it hits at least $1.1m on Monday based on its typical Monday to Wednesday drops. It has dropped 4-6% Monday to Wednesday for the past 3 weeks (this week doesn't count since Monday was inflated).

Oops, my bad. Ok, 100 points then up for grabs by as many as 8 people (800 total on my end).

If BP can hit at least 1.1m next Monday, which I think is possible, then it can potentially extend its consecutive 1m daily streak to 59 days. Amazingly, TFA stopped at 45.

Actually, I will offer the full 200 point IW bet to up to an additional 3 people if anyone else wants it.

WiT is starting to look like it may be in good shape to hit 100 after all. Starting to pull significantly ahead of Tomorrowland through the same point with a comparable Tuesday gross almost twice as big.