MovieMan89

Holy shit, they say it could go as high as 68?!? Not gonna get too excited though since Rth told us 66 just an hour ago, but if it does go up to 68m it has a shot at beating TFA's $60.5m all time Sunday record.

Yes! Now beating Titanic's multi may be back on the table. Gonna be tough though, essentially will need to keep the sub 20% drop streak going each weekend.

Modern pop songs, not modern flop songs.

Damn, it's gonna get sooo close to 200 if Sat is 66, but I don't think it can make it. Probably 196-197.

She will kill her career if she really goes on hiatus following mother and this. Maybe she’ll make some kind of comeback in her late 30s or something with an acclaimed award type of role, but it will be an uphill battle for her to get those kind of roles and she’ll likely never be a box office draw again. I highly advise against the hiatus before trying to get another mainstream hit or two.

What's all this talk of Alden as the next Indy? Shia Labeouf has already been ordained by Spielber/Lucas, remember?

I wouldn't be too quick to brush off TS4. The franchise is basically animation royalty and has probably held its relevancy the best among kids of any other animated franchise/films from the 20th century. Also, no one really asked for TS2 or TS3 either to be fair. Both TS1 and TS2 kind of seemed like films that never needed a sequel. Given the pedigree of the trilogy, I'll give Pixar the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the quality and assume it wouldn't be being made if it really failed to live up. This isn't the Cars franchise where no one really cares if the films are shitty and made to sell toys, Pixar would be crazy to not treat it with a certain degree of reverence given the legacy. I wouldn't count out beating TS3 if not for being surrounded by Aladdin, Pets 2, and The Lion King. Given those factors, it probably has like a 10% chance though. Just way too damn much competition. Probably the 350-400 range if it's good.

Yeah, all this needs is 50%+ or so to be fine as far as reviews go. Critical reception isn't nearly as important for family aimed films. Alice 1, Oz, and Maleficent are all examples as far as other live action Disney family aimed fantasy films. The multi will probably be in the 3-3.2x range even with mediocre reviews, so it's all about how big marketing sells the OW. If it opens anywhere in the 50m vicinity, it's going to be a nice sized hit DOM.

Actually, if those projections hold Freed would finish with $99.9m following Darker. Lol, but yes, I'm officially scurred.

RIP Early Man. That's nearly Shaun the Sheep bad. Poor stop motion, DOM audiences are avoiding it like the plague at this point.

Following NATM from that 4 day gets it to $408m.

Wow, I honestly didn't think J could manage a sub 20% drop this weekend with BP opening. I think Spider-man is officially toast and Sony will soon have their new #1 DOM after a 16 year wait. TGS still on track for 175+.

AoU was a movie with lukewarm at best WOM out of the gate. Movies that get this kind of early WOM pretty much never trend down in the updates over the weekend.

I wonder what the more typical African American breakdown is for MCU films. Maybe 10-15%?

To me it seems like the family will be together for the third act at best, maybe not even that much. Which is definitely disappointing.

Yes, which is why I'm still predicting 350+ for it. I just don't know if it can hit 400. Also worth noting, How to Train Your Dragon 2 was in the same spot as I2 back in summer 2014 and looked completely poised to dominate, with many 400+ predictions floating around here. Then it ended up inexplicably missing 200 and even more inexplicably getting beat by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles in August, which no one saw coming. Not saying I2 will miss 200 or get beat by HT3 or anything, but it doesn't necessarily have to do as well as everyone thinks if enough kids just aren't that into it.

Well I've never been convinced Incredibles has held the generational relevancy among kids that Toy Story or Nemo has. I feel like it's mainly the 20 somethings that are so hyped for I2. I don't know if I see it appealing to kids the way TS3 or Dory did. I think the appeal for them could be more on a Monsters University level, although the much much higher adult demand will obviously take it well above that movie, and a barren schedule and likely better received film, as has been mentioned.

400 requires an admissions increase from the first. That's not an easy feat by any stretch for any sequel to something that did huge admissions. If everything goes right for it, I see a similar situation as Dory where it basically grosses the same as the first adjusted, so $385-ish.

Poppins could make 400 though, its only direct competitor in December is Spider-verse. I still don't think 400 is a lock for JW2, so Disney could even end up with the top 4 of the year DOM. Though I don't think I2 is hitting 400.

If AM2 somehow manages 300, MCU could have at least a 10 film 300+ streak DOM: 1. GOTG 2 2. Spiderman Homecoming 3. Thor Ragnarok 4. Black Panther 5. Infinity War 6. Ant Man and the Wasp 7. Captain Marvel 8. Avengers 4 9. Homecoming 2 10. GOTG 3

Admittedly I did think 80+ was happening today after the preview number, but 76 is still incredible of course. And this could always be a JW situation where it just keeps going up. Deadline was also projecting JW around this number at this time on its opening Friday and it ended up at 82 in the morning.

Awesome early number since you know it’s bound to trend up. I think TA started in the 60s for early Friday reports.

1. BP 2. Creed 3. Fruitvale

Could be 5th even if MPR really breaks out.

Ya know something...I don't think these predictions will end up quite as crazy as they should be (though yes they're still pretty nuts but I like it).