MovieMan89

I highly doubt it DOM at least. 170 has to be the ceiling on both.

I don't see what's so wrong with that spot, it's clearly nothing that's in the movie and made exclusively for the Olympics.

Btw, is that going to be attached to anything theatrically, like BP? It's really more of a trailer than a spot.

Will suck if Helen is absent from the family dynamic though, and where is Violet in all this? They're really hiding her.

It looks good, but I'm not sure if I'm really sold on the whole premise. If I'm being honest, it seems a bit of an underwhelming route to go after the 15 year wait and all the possibilities there have always been for a sequel. There better be a whole lot more to it than just watch Bob be a bumbling dad while Elastigirl is off on an adventure like that spot makes it seem.

NOOOOOOO! But in all seriousness, I doubt it. Darker had a massive 181% VD bump and only finished with a 2.45x multi. The same multi gives Freed 95m. Thursday will probably be back below Monday's number, which should lead to a similar second weekend drop as Darker. Darker only had 23m left to add after President's Day. The same 4 day hold as Darker would put Freed around 76m off a 19m 4 day (4m lower than Darker's 23m 4 day).

WOM will have to be really strong for this kind of movie to have that light of a second weekend hold. As for the third weekend, if you look at the history of huge openers during that first week of May, they always completely dominate everything else. The holdovers don't do well and everything else tends to gross below 10m. The last two Fast movies for example had bad drops against Ultron and Guardians 2 respectively. The only exception was the Jungle Book against Civil War, but that was a WOM driven family film so that's much different. I think a scenario like this is likely: 58 29 -50% 12.5 -57% 7 -42% 3.5 -50% 2 (for 4 day) -43% 3 (remaining weekends) 115m 145-155 total giving typical 74-78% weekend share of movies without holiday or summer weekdays

I'm sold on it being able to pull 150 or so, but not much more. You guys have to remember that once IW hits, this movie's run is basically over since two weeks later is DP and a week after is Solo. It has basically 2 weekends to gross most of what it's going to. IW will knock it down to low-ish grosses by its 3rd and it will be out of a lot of theaters after its 5th.

I think the diversity thing is a cool aspect if it, but I'm just defensive about it because it's commonplace for a lot of non-franchise family aimed films to get severely underestimated here and I think this is appealing to its target demo from the marketing. I also think there is a lot going for it to do well that most here aren't acknowledging such as a talented writer and director, Disney having a pretty flawless track record this decade with these family fantasy live action films, Oprah being hugely popular right now, and yeah a possibility for it to maybe piggyback off of some of Black Panther's success in terms of representation in movies.

Yeah, this is looking like it's shaping up to be pretty big. Still think it won't have much for legs once IW hits, but the OW could be 55+.

This is totally shaping up to be John Carter 2.0, unless reception is great. Going with 29/77 atm.

That only makes Jumanji more profitable, not necessarily the more impressive run. I still give the edge to TGS in that respect. It has done things with holds that were supposed to have been impossible for at least two decades. The 5 day opening for it hardly makes a difference either since it grossed so little in its first two days and it's unlikely it would have opened to much more than it did as a Friday release. So even as a Friday release, we'd probably have ended up with like a 17x multi. While Jumanji has had crazy holds while grossing a lot more than TGS, its run hasn't been unprecedented even by the standards of the last ten years. For example, it won't have a much higher multi than Avatar, despite opening on a Wednesday and to only half as much as that. Jumanji likely would have made significantly more opening on a Friday and its multi would probably be comparable to something like The Blind Side and Night at the Museum. Crazy impressive of course, but not nearly as unprecedented in modern box office history as TGS' legs.

That has to be the highest tracking ever for a non-sequel. 50/50 at this point this thing is going over 200 for the 3 day.

It just keeps getting crazier. I really think it could beat TA and JW. Give it like a 40% chance.

And probably about 10-15m more to outgross RPO.

In all seriousness though, given just how insane the pre-sales are compared to all recent CBMs, it's nature to draw tons of walk up business as a non-team up/non-sequel CBM, pretty much the best reviews ever for the genre, and the fact that the year has been completely dead for appealing new releases I'm starting to think 200+ for the 3 day is far more likely than not at this point.

Yes, although clearly that correlation won't be the same for BP or else it's hitting 400m on OW lmao. Or is it??

It's the fact that it's destroying all of those in pre-sales AND not playing anywhere near as frontloaded as any of them in the pre-sales that's the crazy part. Basically all we can rule out for opening at this point is beating TFA. Even TLJ may not be safe.

They're hyperbole, relax. In all seriousness though, it does make an actual statement as to what American kids/parents find appealing when the sweet, heartwarming family movie with good values everyone needs to wise up to gets dumped in favor of an obnoxious comedy about a rabbit and idiot trying to kill each other. Also, coincidence there's so much orange with all those carrots and gingers???

PR doing over twice as much as Paddington DOM says it all about why Trump is president. American parents would rather say fuck that to teaching their kids "if you're kind and polite the world will be right", in favor of obnoxious, rude orange things.

Ugh, Paddington 2 completely died. Not even going to match the first's multi after all. Fuck Peter Rabbit.

Dory increased from Nemo ($339m). Return of the King increased from The Two Towers ($342m).

The Hunger Games' DOM success is pretty crazy. Both of the first two beat every Potter film in admissions except the first. If they hadn't taken a book no one wanted or asked to be split into two films, MJ may have done 400 as well.

A franchise has to start somewhere though. Pirates 1 for example wasn't a franchise film and still did 50m+ in Japan. Considering how its broken out pretty much everywhere, probably shouldn't rule it completely out.

So the $7.95 one locks you into a year? Will certainly be interesting to see what happens with all these year deals if they don't make it that far.