MovieMan89

Except for the 90% of us on this forum who weren't even alive yet.

You’re beyond kidding yourself if you think TFA managed a 3.8x multi off a 250m OW by not being anything less than as universally liked as it gets for blockbusters. As far as what happened after the box office run, I still never saw some vocal presence of hate for it. Criticism and issues are a different matter entirely. You will get that with any movie.

The TFA hater: now that's the epitome of a very small minority. At worst some complain about the similarity to ANH. Never really had any experience with someone who outright hates it in the way I've already seen the TLJ hate by many.

But why would you look at the box office that way? You realize that's equivalent to saying there should be no different reaction between Jumanji grossing 600+ DOM and TLJ grossing 600+ DOM. Of course the reactions to each film's performance would be worlds and worlds apart in that scenario, because studios don't just put all films on an equal level and then look at the gross and pay attention to nothing else at all. And neither do we as box office followers.

Lol, I'm not even sure the person you described there exists, and if they do it's not the majority of us that have issues with TLJ.

The problem is you're disregarding the fact that a massive performance for it was guaranteed. There was 0% chance of it dropping below like 550 DOM, even if it were considered the worst movie ever made with no marketing campaign. That's why saying it posted massive numbers is no big achievement in and of itself. There should have been no way it went below 650 if it had delivered, and now that's a possibility.

Disney will care because a poor OS performance for Solo combined with such a massive OS dropoff for TLJ shows that OS audiences are pretty fickle when it comes to the franchise. It just doesn't have the kind of brand loyalty with most of the world that it does DOM audiences. SW fatigue could quickly become a real thing with several OS markets given the current release strategy. If in a few years Disney has to depend on DOM for their SW film's success, then the annual release strategy becomes highly problematic. You need a huge OS allegiance for this kind of blockbuster release plan.

Give Solo about a 10% chance to hit 700 WW...

This is why I'm hoping for Solo to bomb hard and maybe a bit of TLJ backlash leading into IX. Only thing that would cause Disney to do that like they should.

I highly doubt family audiences were the ones seeing it in PLF and IMAX though.

But TFA probably had a huge kid ticket audience as well. Both films were true 4 quad giants.

So you're basically talking about 3D/IMAX inflation then? Just the way you did it threw me off cause you adjusted TPM up instead of TFA down. But yeah, somewhere around 850 or so is probably where TFA would land without 3D/IMAX. Still well over a 100m+ lead on TPM adjusted.

The OS drop is definitely the most troubling about its run. You have sequels to OS giants like Ultron and Fate of the Furious that either increased or didn't drop much OS in spite of the big DOM decreases. There's really nothing good at all about a sequel dropping 35% or so from its predecessor's gross OS. Exchange rate is far from a good enough excuse alone.

How on earth do you get that? What average ticket prices are you using?

Amazing how healthy blockbuster legs still were back in '02. Looking at the summer releases, most everything was 3.4x+, and only Scooby Doo and Austin Powers missed 3x. AOTC might have joined them if it had opened on a Friday.

AOTC really did have crappy legs by '02 standards. Only a 2.75x multi off its 4 day opening. You had TPM doing 4.1x off a 5 day opening 3 years prior.

I do wonder just how big ROTS could have been though if not for the double whammy of TPM and AOTC's reception among most fans? The birth of Darth Vader and essentially being marketed at the time as the last Star Wars film ever were such massive hooks that if the prequels had built goodwill prior it's run may have been TFA levels of crazy.

TFA eclipses TPM by over 200m adjusted too, so again it's not that big of an achievement for TLJ to be beating AOTC by that much. And yes, I definitely think AOTC's run felt a blowback from TPM's reception. That's what's concerning for IX if the TLJ reception is indeed very mixed. Though conversely, AOTC was received arguably just as poorly, and ROTS still increased. But there was a huge hook for that movie too.

How on earth would it have not obliterated AOTC, under any circumstance? TFA obliterated TPM adjusted too.

It was mainly kid targeted movies that increased today in '06. Of course that was before discount Tuesday. TLJ has been all over the place too, nothing from '06 has been a good comp.

Yeah not sure what the deal with that is, watch him come in and tell us like 36 or something lol.

This perfectly illustrates why WOM is a big factor even in these sequels to juggernaut box office phenoms. Yes the nature of those kinds of box officer titans almost always indicates a drop no matter what for the sequel, but look at the three you mentioned. SM2 was received arguably even better than SM1 upon release, and thus had a small 7% drop from its predecessor. HP2 was received on par or maybe slightly worse than HP1 and had a 17% drop. JP2 was received poorly and had a massive 36% drop off. Of the three, TLJ is trending the closest right now to JP2's drop off by far. Likewise, SM2 is probably the drop range we could have expected if WOM had been even better than TFA, and HP2 if WOM had been similar.

Not beating Avengers would be insane. Would have probably called it near impossible pre-release.

Wow, that's kind of crazy. So how low could it realistically go then?

RO only added 107m to its cume after NYD though? NYD falling on a Sunday instead of a Monday for it should also indicate that TLJ would be at a higher percentage of its total gross on NYD than RO was. With your 537 number and RO-ish post-holiday legs, it seems it would be more on track for 660 no?