MovieMan89

That's actually surprisingly reasonable coming from you. I was thinking it would be something like 1.2B DOM/3B OS.

Under 1.5 sounds pretty impossible. Don't see how it would implode like that unless Cameron has lost every skill he has.

I won't call anything between 500-1b DOM or 2b-4b WW a "terrible" prediction.

Avatar 2 is going to be the most interesting upcoming film to watch what happens at the box office. There's about six different ways I see it going.

Cameron probably forced Disney to buy Fox just to ensure a situation like this would never happen.

If Solo hits 400 in that release spot and with everything else going against it, then I will agree that Disney has nothing to worry about with the annual releases for awhile. But I think sub 300 is more likely than 400.

Because we all knew there was like .0001% Lucas would ever actually make the sequel trilogy, not because no one wanted them.

And that's the problem. When Disney first unveiled this annual release strategy I argued instantly that it would eventually put the franchise in danger of losing its juggernaut clout, and no one wanted to agree, saying SW would always demand a huge gross even with 10 movies in a decade. 3 movies in and the path to how that might not necessarily be the case is already clear. The franchise isn't immune to becoming "just another franchise" like many argued it was. That's why Disney needs to stand back and re-evaluate if WOM looks mixed on this and Solo disappoints. How about we get an actual hiatus after IX?

I don't think I've ever heard anyone on these boards use either of those two in defense of a movie's WOM, but alright then.

I haven't said it would mean the WOM is toxic either. I mean the same thing by poor and mixed WOM. Toxic WOM would be if it did like a 2.7x or something in December.

Ah yes, I forgot if CinemaScore says it is so, nothing else matters.

Who on earth is arguing it's not going to be hugely successful and make bucketloads for Disney? I'm talking about the reception and the potential effect going forward. And I'm not saying a 3x multi is set in stone now, I'm saying it's possible and hypothetically what that would mean about the WOM if it happens.

I've never heard anyone argue Ultron had good WOM. Not one person.

So we could very conceivably end up with a 50% RT audience score, a prequel level IMDB score, and a 3x multi in December and people would still argue the WOM wasn't poor? Lord have mercy.

I'm not holding TFA against TLJ's performance. A 3.4x multi off a 220 OW vs a 3.8x off a 250 OW is a massive difference, yet I wouldn't have said it necessarily indicated poor WOM for TLJ. Anything below 3.1x in December does. There is no spin. With the sole exception of it maybe having obliterated the OW record and pulling something like 275+, but that wasn't the case either.

Put in other terms, if it gets a 3x multi in December, as a summer release we could have expected a 2-2.3x multi. Would anyone be defending that, regardless of OW size?

I can't say for sure that you were one of the ones saying that it was virtually impossible for it to only get a 3x in December last weekend, but plenty of people were. Hell, even I was. The fact that now that's being made to not sound like a big deal because of the OW size is telling.

I still don't know why some think a 3-3.2x multi would just be no big deal as far as WOM goes? Do you see any of the top 20 December OWs with a sub 3.4x? You have to find an early December horror sequel to get down to 3x (Scream 2). And a movie that Christian organizations boycotted en masse to get lower than that (The Golden Compass). If TLJ finishes under 700, that just isn't good when it comes to the reception and there will be some kind of effect felt on the franchise going forward if Disney ignores the way it was received.

You have to look at it from the long game perspective, like Disney is with the franchise. A 3x multi in December is certainly indicative that the WOM wasn't great. Disney would be stupid to just ignore that going forward. Solo already had its own set of issues that no SW film has ever had, so if that were to actually underpeform at the box office, or even fail to turn a profit, we then have an SW film with mixed reception and one that actually did lackluster numbers at the box office back to back. Now SW fatigue becomes a real concern for Disney, since there's no end in sight at the moment to their annual release strategy. As someone already said, often times at the box office the next movie will pay for the sins of the last, so that's not good going into IX. Maybe it has a lower OW than anyone expects, in which case it could not afford the same kind of reception TLJ gets and still make it out with a massive profit like TLJ will. It would make a profit, but where would the franchise be at going forward from there? If IX also didn't have great WOM, the franchise would officially be in a true fatigue and now that the main episodes are over there's nothing to stop the Anthology ones from actually bombing if the annual release continues. So, to make a long story short, Disney has to take measures to ensure the above scenario simply doesn't happen. If they don't, it's not an impossible reality.

That's definitely danger territory, imo. Is Han even that popular of a character in OS markets? If the movie has to live or die by DOM, then it could be in trouble.

This is obviously jumping ahead, but if TLJ only does something like a 3x multi which would make it clear WOM was indeed subpar, and then Solo only does something like 600 WW, Disney is going to be concerned about SW fatigue. Things will be reconsidered, plans will shift. They might decide to make IX the most "crowd pleasy" movie ever and take an SW hiatus after 2019.

I just wonder what exactly they are spending on Solo. I don't think they should bank on needing anymore than 600 WW to turn a profit.

You joke, but if Solo is coming a mere 5 months off a mixed reception main entry that fell 40% in WW gross from its predecessor, then Solo could actually flop in terms of being profitable. The talk starts happening behind the scenes, and we see some changes in the current plans happen, possibly even starting with IX's plot. In other words, TLJ could be the spark that makes Disney feel some unwanted flames.

That's just not true. Most of the fanbase wanted to see the movie stray from the OT blueprint. That was virtually the only complaint from fans about TFA (too ANH-ish). What RJ did with TLJ is a different thing entirely, which I won't go into for sake of spoilers.

No need to apologize, I didn't feel like you were harping on me. I'm sure it is more than the mods want. Gets hard to discuss even the movie's box office without going into general discussions about WOM and appeal.