MovieMan89

Great, so when the movie has 30m left to gross from random repeat viewings and Ma and Pa Kettle from Hopkins Nebraska. Makes sense.

Btw, when will we be allowed to post spoilers in tags in the non-spoiler threads?

When the initial Friday estimate is higher than the likely Saturday actual...

Sorry. I assume anyone who is the type to post on an internet forum already knows that the film has divided the fanbase, so I don't see how that's a spoiler.

Damn, now that I think about, TLJ is the first Episode that doesn't have much I can see appealing to kids. For a movie that didn't cater to the diehard fanbase, it's sure not really catering to a new generation either.

The opening day breakdown was only 38% under 25, but that is when the fanboys rush out. I'm sure the ratio of kids was much higher post OD. That said, I could buy the sequel trilogy having less appeal to kids than the OT or PT, since both of those were made specifically with children in mind, whereas this trilogy has been made specifically with the established fanbase in mind. TLJ in particular seems to have the least kid appeal of any Episode to date. I can see a lot of kids not being all that into it.

What it says is that SW is the DOM franchise king with kids of each generation since the OT. You were arguing it wasn't.

Any blockbuster type film from the 70's is going to have an element of dated to it. Hell, that's when the blockbuster originated, so of course things have changed a lot. However, there is no other blockbuster type of movie from that time frame that holds up as well as the OT and it is because they are very well made for their genre and many of the concepts are appealing to kids by any decade's standards. Kids will watch the OT, even in spite of how dated aspects of it are. Try getting kids to watch other films from that time frame, even animated ones.

TPM obliterates any Potter film in admissions. ROTS trumps any Potter film in admissions. The dreadful AOTC beats any Potter film in admissions except one. Most of all, the PT was huge with kids.

If we're talking about the UK, then sure. As far as DOM audiences go, Star Wars is to Millennials what Star Wars is to Baby Boomers in terms of kids growing up with the films.

Big weekdays this week aren't that impressive when you consider it's unlikely to beat either TFA or RO's second Monday, in spite of having the huge Xmas day advantage over those two.

I think 2018 and 2019 will be pretty huge, though I worry about what happens after that since I think the franchise overload bubble could burst come 2020.

Who said it wasn't visually well done? That's not the same thing as money shots.

With the 70% gross share they demanded, Disney could have spent 800m+ on TLJ and still be fine.

Here's a decent place to start (SPOILERS IN THIS ARTICLE OBVIOUSLY): https://www.thewrap.com/10-plot-threads-force-awakens-set-last-jedi-blew-off/

That early 2.9 estimate from last night was just mean. Actually had hope it might have crazy late legs and get to 250. Now it's looking like Tangled numbers. Really a travesty given the film's quality, deserves far more. At least OS is with it.

What bothers me is that E8 never needed to "play it safe" to deliver something that the fanbase and the GA could have gotten on board with on TFA levels, imo. All it needed to do was follow up and deliver on a lot of interesting plot points TFA set up. There would have been plenty of satisfactory ways to do that without playing it safe.

If that happens, I'm starting the IW over TLJ DOM club.

I think 550-560m is a very likely total by NYD based on its number today. That said, I expect the way it gets there to differ much more from Eragon's pattern. For example, Mon should be its highest day next week, not Tue, Wed, and Thu.

Lmao if it had Balboa holds, 600 would be in danger. Disney might secretly kill Johnson and replace him with a clone in that case.

Rocky Balboa is the other movie from '06 with a similar Friday jump as TLJ. With Balboa-ish holds: Sat: 26m (+5%) Sun: 10m (-61%) Mon: 24m (+140%) Tue: 22m (-8%) Wed: 16m (-27%) Thu: 14.5 (-9%) Fri: 19m (+31%) Sat: 21m (+10%) Sun: 12m (-43%) Mon: 16m (+33%) Total: 502m

Since the jump today is identical to Eragon in '06, with roughly Eragon holds: Sat: 26.5m (+8%) Sun: 12m (-55%) Mon 21m (+75%) Tue: 28m (+33%) Wed: 25m (-11%) Thu: 24m (-4%) Fri: 28m (+16%) Sat: 30m (+7%) Sun: 19m (-37%) Mon: 25m (+31%) Total: 560m

Most of the movies that did that that year had very low grosses though, except Museum and Happyness. But then you had movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon that didn't get near that much of a jump. Pursuit and Museum had great holds. If you look at this Friday from that year, Pursuit jumped 60%+ today. Movies like Rocky Balboa and Eragon only jumped 38-42% today, right in line with TLJ. I'd expect TLJ to follow their holds much more closely than Pursuit or Museum. Which would indicate a hold between -15%-+15% next weekend.

If it's 65 or any lower for the weekend, then I'd put it on track for right around 660. If it finishes at 666m, Rian as the SW antichrist confirmed.

Just saw that early Coco estimate from last night was also waaaay off.