MovieMan89

Between predicting TLJ would have mixed WOM and a significantly worse multi than RO back on OD, to predicting Jumanji could do NATM numbers several weeks before release, to saying Showman might hit 125m+ last weekend...I must say I'm feeling pretty confident about my bold 2018 predictions right about now.

Jumanji should be looking closer to 40 if it's 10.8 for Friday. That's a significantly better Friday bump than Sing, and if it followed those holds for Sat and Sun it would do 43m. As for Showman, that 125m+ I mentioned last weekend will be a reality if it stays almost flat this weekend. My over Les Mis fantasy may not even be a fantasy.

Domestic only: 1. Infinity War will break the OW record and become the highest grossing CBM ever 2. Black Panther will become the highest grossing origin CBM ever 3. Jurassic World: FK under 400 4. Wrinkle in Time over Oz the Great and Powerful ($234m) 5. Venom over The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202m) 6. Halloween over Halloween '07 + F13 '09+ Elm Street '10 ($186m) 7. Tomb Raider over the original as the highest grossing video game adaptation ($131m) 8. Solo under 300m 9. Dark Phoenix over Apocalypse 10. All 10 Disney releases over 100m

How much does Jedi likely have to add OS outside of China?

Though with a total of 35-40m, you have to wonder are Solo and IX even going to crack 20m there?

Yeah, my bad I thought that was OW. I was wondering how it could possibly be that much of a disaster, lol.

Don't movies typically get like 2.5x multis in China, even if well liked? TLJ may not touch 25m if it opened with 9.5. Disney may as well cancel Solo and IX's release in China, and I'm only half joking.

If Jumanji hits 30 for the weekend, I'd say 300 is locked. And if it followed Sing's holds this weekend it would pull a massive 40m. 320+ would be on the table in that case.

400k ahead of RO's dailies for Thursday. Finishes with 626 if it adds the same as RO from here.

Vader’s draw power is definitley not to be underestimated. No way he didn’t add a notable boost to both ROTS and RO.

Who’s talking about halting production of anything? Well except maybe RJs trilogy, which has even gone into production. They should however reconsider the annual release plan, especially if Solo underperforms. And AoU could have spelled trouble. The quality in phase 2 was a bit on the lazy side and youll notice the films following it didn’t get the kind of boost the ones following TA did. But they got things together for phase 3 and have delivered some of their highest quality work. Now practically every mcu release clears 300m.

You guys are missing the point of all of this, which is the future not the present. Saying “everything is fine in the now” is a recipe for disaster in Hollywood. That’s how franchises get into trouble. TLJs run should definitely serve as warning signs that Disney can’t just do whatever they want with SW and throw one out every year and green pastures forever. If they don’t handle the brand with more care and caution, we will have an SW bomb at the box office and possible genuine SW fatigue on the whole. And it may be way sooner than most here think.

I’m about 75% sure that trilogy isn’t happening, and if/when it gets announced it will pretty much put to rest any speculation of what Disney thinks of TLJs performance.

Whatever they expected, I can tell you right now that no studio “expects” their big budget sequel to drop 40% worldwide from its predecessor.

TLJ could lose nearly 800m from TFA. Nothing in the world will convince me disney has zero issue with that. There’s a difference between a movie being a bomb and a movie being hugely profitable but signaling potential concern for the future via reception and its decline from it predecessor. TLJ is the latter.

Pretty sure I did not. I said last week what I’m saying now, that it will drop below RO after the holiday boost. And btw, it did nearly drop below RO this past weekend.

That probably stops Friday or Saturday.

Every drop is a disaster because it’s somehow managed to go from opening 65m higher than RO to looking likely to drop below that movies dailies soon within 3 weeks. That takes a whole lot of shitty holds to accomplish so quickly.

Hmm, that seems like an odd day to go back generally speaking though. I think most of the tue holds proved a holiday boost still in effect. We’ll see what all the wed ones look like.

It could tumble well below RO numbers after this week if it’s barely outpacing them with the holiday boost. If it misses 600m the spin by our dearly dedicated will be delicious.

Also gonna be a sweet sweet victory when IW beats TLJ DOM this summer. Quote me.

With that hold for wed, I am officially on the under TA bandwagon. Gonna drop below RO numbers for probably the rest of its run soon. That added 79m from the same point. 610-620 is where I think it’s headed.

That’s a massive lead for Jumanji considering the PLF boost and contractual obligations for TLJ. Once the holiday boost is over on Thursday, TLJ will be lucky to pull RO numbers.

I don't think they balance each other out at all. You can take a sequel like Desolation of Smaug for example, which is widely regarded to have lukewarm reception at best, and yet still cleared 3.5x. Because that's how much of a difference December makes. Not to mention SMH was a CBM, a whole different beast regardless of release time for multis. 2.85x is fantastic for them. But agree to disagree I guess.

I wouldn't say "fantastic" but it certainly showed potential, unlike those others.