Well if it really is the entire movie-going market going south domestically, at least by this time next year we should be well prepared in time to lower our SW7 predictions.
Shit, all AOU would have to do is miss 200 OW and this board would be in full panic mode. I can already see a 190m OW being dubbed about the worst opening since John Carter.
TH3 should have a real chance at matching AUJ's gross. It has no real chance at going much higher though, only slim hopes that it wildly overperforms. However, this WHOLE YEAR has been built on slim chances of movies to wildly overperform or underperform coming true (LEGO movie, Dragon 2, GOTG, MJ1).
By the way guys, if this year is meant to signal that audiences are truly abandoning going to the movie theater, next year is going to be the most brutal thing ever as we watch some of the most hyped releases in years/ever get massacred in under-performance. I may need a defibrillator by next December.
Although, if MJ1 can decrease 40m between installment OWs, who's to say Hobbit can't increase 20m on OW over installments? A 95m OW would indeed put it in the race for #1.
That makes no sense right now. CF dropped 53% releasing the same time of year and making nearly 40m more on OW (and dealing with a certain other box office juggernaut I might add). WOM will truly need to be toxic for it to fall 60%+ next weekend.
Exactly. IF (and I do say if) this has a better multi than the first two that will 100% confirm to me the utter lack of any marketing was at fault for such a massive OW drop. If it has a shitty multi, then I honestly have no explanation for its performance.
Um, it followed CF's OW holds nearly to a fault, except for a slightly larger Sunday drop. So again, enlighten me on these facts that WOM is so clearly worse. That remains to be seen.
I'm inclined to agree, but even still it would be stupid to assume that as fact. It could very well have at least a huge opening after Skyfall's success. It's coming first too and has the only two weeks of the season without huge competitors, so it doesn't have the market fatigue to worry about.
Yep. That's why I said earlier this one really should not have been a two parter. I mean yes they make more money either way, but it's just going to look so underwhelming if both of the last two movie only do around 330m compared to the first two. And all it takes is Bond continuing off from Skyfall's momentum (which I don't think it will but is possible) and that could totally upstage it in November. It may not even be the #1 November movie now!