MovieMan89

Absolutely amazing for Godzilla late nights. I had a feeling 90m+ could happen.

I see I got the closest to TASM2's OW!

All questions worth 1000 points UOS All questions pertain to the top 12 UOS 1) Will Million Dollar Arm open to more than 23.5 million? NO 2) Will Million Dollar Arm have an opening day of more than 8.5 million? NO 3) Will Neighbors and Million Dollar Arm combine to come within 20 million of Godzilla? NO 4) Will Godzilla open to more than 66.4 million? YES 5) Will Godzilla make at least 150 million WW by the time estimates come out? YES 6) Will Godzilla gross more than 7.5 mill in Russia? YES 7) Will Amazing Spider-man fall less than 50%? NO 8) Which film will have the softer drop? MNO or LOO:DR? LOO 9) Will ASM's Saturday be within 16 million of Godzilla's? NO 10) Will Godzilla make more than 3.5 million on Thursday? YES 11) Will Neighbors have a Saturday increase of more than 25%? YES 12) Name any two movies that will drop more than 35% on Sunday. Must get both films to get points (if you don't think two will drop more, then just put the one that will or put none). TASM2 and CA2 13) Will TOW finish within 18 million of ASM2? YES 14) Will MDA place in second? NO 15) Will any film have a 200% increase on Friday? YES 12/15 3000 13/15 4000 14/15 6000 15/15 9000 Bonus 1: What will Godzilla gross? 4000 87.010 Bonus 2: What will TOW gross? 4000 4.805 Bonus 3: What will the combined gross be of Godzilla, GPH and Rio be? 5000 90.426 Bonus 4: What % will ASM2 drop internationally? Note: we will use the 69.5 mill from the report this weekend. Only Sunday report will count. Monday actuals do not come into play. 49.115% Bonus 5: What will Frozen gross in Japan for the weekend? 6000 (for this question only, the three closest players will get the points) 5.050 What finishes in spots: 5000 7 RIO 2 8 CA2 9 Oz 13 Gods Not Dead 15 Bears 2000 each bonus of 5000 if all five correct. Good luck!

Agreed. The first was well liked, but it's not like people were exactly clamoring for a sequel to it. Such a competitive May/June timeframe too, especially for adult comedies, so I expect a similar OW to Neighbors. 60m would be the absolute ceiling, imo.

SOTM 37) The Heat: 159.582 10,000 if right/ -12,000 if wrong

And how telling is it that one of the few location switch ups in these movies also happens to be one of the best scenes in the whole franchise.

I think the fact that Tele hasn't seen the TASM movies explains why he doesn't get how important change is to this franchise right now. They're so stale at this point a musty smell emanates from them when you watch.

Hell, I'd argue Mission Impossible 4's early success was nearly entirely hinged on location. Those shots in the marketing of Cruise scaling the Burj Khalifa got people hyped for the franchise like it hadn't had in a good decade. Then the fact that it was good movie ensured great legs. That's what TASM3 needs. It needs to look fresh and exciting in the marketing first, and then it needs to be a good movie to have the legs.

BB is a perfect example of a fantastic movie not always being enough to entice audiences to see it. The movie didn't even sell that many more tickets than the dreaded Batman and Robin when you get down to it. Marketing didn't look enticing enough for it to pull that franchise out of its rut. Thankfully becuase it was such a great movie it found lots of extra life on video and helped set up the hype for TDK (although that movie had a whole slew of factors all its own that made it huge besides BB's reception). The main difference is that was a reboot. TASM3 is going to be a second sequel. It's highly unlikely it can turn the whole franchise around in that position just based on a WOM situation. It needs to look fresh and new to stand any kind of chance.

Precisely. This franchise is in such a tired rut at this point that even making a good movie alone isn't going to save it. TASM3 is probably looking at a 70m OW if it's lucky. Audiences will need to really be enticed by the marketing next time around to put butts in seats. And the only way to really do that for this franchise now is to have the movie look different and new. Spidey swinging through NYC with tagline claiming it to be his "greatest challenge yet" ain't gonna cut it.

Of course that matters most. But at this point the marketing for future ones is going to have to rely on new and interesting things to get audiences to care again. Even if the actual plot and characters of TASM3 turned out great, it can be hard to show that in marketing. And at this point TASM3 is in store for an ugly OW of which even great WOM may not help much.

No, it has to do with same ol, same ol. But one way to change that is location. There are many other ways too, and location alone would hardly be enough incentive to make it fresh and interesting again. It is a start though.

Wow, kinda crazy how many skyscrapers Hong Kong has even compared to NYC: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_with_the_most_skyscrapers Thought Shanghai had a closer number to NYC, but over 100 is still more than enough.

HK or Shanghai would be awesome. Been to both Shanghai and NYC, Shanghai is every bit of a skyscraper playground as the latter.

He doesn't have to be. I don't know if the comics take him out of NYC ever, but even if they don't who cares? The movies should.

Knew that TASM's Sunday estimates were way too soft. So it ended up having nearly the exact same 2nd weekend drop as SM3. Only that made like twice as much for OW and supposedly had toxic WOM.

With Godzilla and DOFP hitting back to back there's still a slight chance for TASM2 to miss 200. God that would be beyond epic,

I thought you said you hadn't seen 3 or 4? His performance in 4 was as phoned in as they come.

Although "Judi Dench cameos in a carriage" could also work.

I can explain everything of "interest" that happens in the 4th one in a single sentence if you like. Actually even that may be pushing it, maybe like 5 words.

Great, they can join the hundreds of millions there that got sent by the Pirates of the Carribbean sequels.

14.5m is my guess for TASM2 Sat.

Wouldn't be surprised if TASM2 has a sub 45% Sat bump. SM3 got a 46% second Satirday jump and TASM2 already has a lower second Friday bump than it.

Yeah 170m will likely be too low now, but I don't think too many people went higher than that in the BSG.