peludo

What relevant releases there will be in April and how much do you expect for each one?

Pretty agree. Yesterday I was more convinced, but analyzing data more deeply, it is going to be hard to reach the billion, as other people have already said here. It remembers me Hobbit's run. I think Hobbit trilogy is the possible range: between 950-1.02b. It all depends on legs. We will have to wait until next weekend to know better. It is hard to compare with MoS because of holidays, but for the moment we have these: Country: MoS opening vs BvS opening (MoS total gross) BvS total proj. Australia: $8.1m vs $10.0m ($22.3m) $30m Brazil: $4.0m vs $12.2m ($16.0m) $40m China: $25.9m vs $57.3m ($63.4m) $100m France: $8.0m vs $8.4m ($20.9m) $20m Germany: $3.5m vs $8.2m ($9.8m) $20m Hong Kong: $2.0m vs $4.35m ($4.3m) $10m Italy: $2.4m vs $5.8m ($6.1m) $10m Japan: $2.7m vs $4.4m ($9.0m) $18m Mexico: $9.7m vs $18.6m ($21.1m) $35m Russia: $5.7m vs $8.5m ($10.4m) $16m South Korea: $7.3m vs $10.6m ($15.0m) $20m Spain: $3.9m vs $6.3m ($10.0m) $15m UK: $17.6m vs $21.9m ($46.2m) $50m Total: $100.8m vs $176.55m ($254.5m) $384m *Increases in local currencies have been quite higher given that ER were quite more favorable in 2013 than now. The projected figures would mean about a 50% increase relative to MoS, what would mean $565.5m total OS and maybe $950-$965m WW (asuming 385-400 in US). What do you think about these data? do you think that each country figure is reasonable?

Well, we could remember how much did the second film of the MCU, The Incredible Hulk, or that no one of the first 5 MCU films did more than MoS or BvS... Everyone can make unfair comparisons. I can not compare Hulk with Batman+Superman+WW together, and you can not compare a 12 films / 8 years universe with another with just 1 film+1 weekend universe. Let's wait until, at least, Justice League part I, to make more fair comparisons. And IMO, this will reach 1 billion. Barely, but it will. April is clear.

MOS opened to $128m

IM3 came after Avengers euphoria. BvS is coming after mixed received MoS and it has been the most prejudged film ever. I was expecting a bit more too (Ultron territory), but critics have destroyed that chance. I am not saying that BvS could have managed SW7 opening. Probably, not even TA or JW. But I think the gap relative to Ultron opening could have been quite smaller if the viciousness had not been so big. Do people think that difference in quality between IM3 vs Ultron and BvS is really 79% vs 75% vs 31%? It is a bad joke.

I am not that surprised/shocked. I expected 800-900, so yes, it is quite disappointing but, IMHO, it is not more disappointing than Spectre, MI5 or KFP3 increases relative to Skyfall, MI4 or KFP2, respectively.

Don't get me wrong. I wish you are right, but I prefer to be cautious

Looking at BOM foreign section, the markets where F7 was released the same weekend than BvS this year opened to $250m and in those territories the film grossed about $700m (we have to exclude China, Japan, russia and Poland since F7 started later in those countries), so x2.8 multiplier. Considering the better reception it had and that BvS should be more frontloaded than F7, I guess that a lower multiplier for this is logical.

You have to take into account that this is not an usual OW. In many markets it is quite inflated given the holidays. In Spain films use to be released on Friday, Bt this one has been released on Wednesday, being both Thursday and Friday national holidays. Drop next weekend should be huge.

TDK: €4.62m (5-day opening) TDKR: €3.44m - 509k adm (3-day) MOS: €2.99m (3-day) Other recent relevant SH films: TA: €5.38m (738k admissions) (3-day) IM3: €3.83m (521k adm) (3-day) AOU: €4.35m (625k adm) (3-day)

The article says, basically, this Spain: $1.8m (biggest OD of the year. Over Deadpool's OD) France: $1.7m Italy: $1.1m (over Deadpool's OD) Norway: $501k (biggest OD of the year) I can say that the Spanish data is quite surprising and impressive. SH genre has not been very big here (excepting some 3 or 4 films), and spite yesterday was not a normal day (holiday eve), it is shocking that the OD here is bigger than in France.

As efialtes said, forget critics. I have not seen the film yet, but some people I know say they have enjoyed it a lot.

That is enormous Just for reference, TDKR sold 509k admissions on OW (€3.4m) and MoS did €3m.

According iMDB, it opens today in Belgium, Egypt, Spain, Finland, France, Indonesia, Iceland, Italy, Kuwait, Norway, Sweden and Tunisia.

March 18-20 Top 20 (bold titles are local films) 1. Kung Fu Panda 3: €2,862,195 (2nd weekend) 2. Divergent: Allegiant: €2,839,767 (2nd) 3. Cien años de perdón: €4,425,769 (3rd) 4. Zootopia: €10,487,847 (6th) 5. El pregón: €549,971 (NEW) 6. 10 Cloverfield Lane: €379,230 (NEW) 7. The brothers Grimsby: €369,042 (NEW) 8. Deadpool: €9,597,507 (5th) 9. The revenant: €13,837,719 (7th) 10. The Gift: €270,828 (NEW) 11. The dressmaker: €236,917 (NEW) 12. Spotlight: €3,513,113 (8th) 13. Room: €1,577,608 (4th) 14. Mustang: €397,248 (2nd) 15. Brooklyn: €1,467,544 (4th) 16. The Forest: €1,618,678 (4th) 17. La ritournelle: €39,219 (NEW) 18. Gemma Bovery: €33,225 (NEW) 19. Tenemos que hablar: €1,319,578 (4th) 20. Hail, Cesar!: €2,007,562 (5th)

Sure, but we do not have the complete info until Wednesdays I will post it tomorrow.

Superman and Batman in Spain: Superman: 5,267,944 admissions - 4,331,904 € (most attended SH film ever) Superman II: 2,968,195 adm - 3,069,660 € Superman III: 2,359,333 adm - 3,373,965 € Superman IV: 1,233,223 adm - 2,174,114 € Superman Returns: 1,816,024 adm - 9,272,518 € Man of Steel: 1,112,470 adm - 7,609,147 € Batman: 3,536,426 adm - 7,885,388 € Batman Returns: 1,104,444 adm - 2,825,818 € Batman Forever: 1,121,293 adm - 3,380,778 € Batman & Robin: 1,013,074 adm - 3,244,675 € Batman Begins: 1,476,177 adm - 7,329,994 € The Dark Knight: 1,947,795 adm - 11,151,006 € The Dark Knight Rises: 1,882,914 adm - 11,959,312 €

March 18-20 (provisional) 1. Kung Fu Panda 3: €1.0m (2nd) -32% 2. Divergent: Allegiant: €0.8m (2nd) -46% 3. Cien años de perdón: €0.7m (3rd) -39% 4. Zootopia: €0.6m (6th) -11% 5. El pregón: €0.5m (NEW - Local film)

... and by far

March 11-13 Top 20 (bold titles are local films): 1. Divergent: Allegiant: €1,477,070 (NEW) 2. Kung Fu Panda 3: €1,464,855 (NEW) 3. Cien años de perdón: €3,314,301 (2nd) 4. Zootopia: €9,720,910 (5th) 5. Deadpool: €9,072,434 (4th) 6. The Revenant: €13,415,991 (6th) 7. Spotlight: €3,199,195 (7th) 8. Room: €1,318,098 (3rd) 9. Brooklyn: €1,271,361 (3rd) 10. Mustang: €192,456 (NEW) 11. The Forest: €1,478,396 (3rd) 12. Tenemos que hablar: €1,238,369 (3rd) 13. Hail, Cesar!: €1,957,138 (4th) 14. How to be single: €1,493,550 (5th) 15. Carol: €1,610,588 (6th) 16. La corona partida: €794,020 (4th) 17. Goosebumps: €2,808,339 (7th) 18. Alvin and the Chipmunks: €4,068,280 (8th) 19. 13 hours: the secret soldiers of Bengazhi: €492,158 (3rd) 20. The Danish girl: €4,934,334 (9th)

Not because direct competition, but lack of interest because of too many superheroes in just 3 months. Beyond rabid fans, general audience can become tired of the genre for a while and wait to see other SH films later.

Well, competition could apply to X-Men too. It has to compete with the "too many SH films in a short time" factor. By the time X-Men is released we will have already seen Deadpool, BvS and Civil War in less than 3 months. Those 3 films should sum over 1 billion DOM. We have never seen so many big SH films in a so short time (and we will still have to wait for Suicide Squad and Dr. Strange). Some of them could fail because of saturation. BvS and CW are, presumably, the strongest of the year, and X-Men is close enough in time to both in order to be affected. People could wait to see new characters (SS and Strange) instead going to see the 8th X-Men film... Just a thought. I am not saying it will happen. In fact, I prefer X-Men to win over AiW2. But it could be tougher than many think.

Recent Disney adaptations have made more than $200m: Oz, Maleficent, Cinderella... and this has Johnny Depp again. And let's remember, as firedeep said, that any X-Men film has still done over $235m in US. I think Alice 2 can win (not locked).

I would not compare to Marvel. BvS has never been expected to match them. This is in the SW7 or MI5 league.

You are right. I have been very generous with the adjective . It is a disastrous opening. I thought that KFP had more appealing here.