peludo

We can start with this: http://lumiere.obs.coe.int/web/film_info/?id=32191

Raiders of the Lost Ark v. Bambi Star Wars IV: A New Hope v. Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers v. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Jaws v. The Sound of Music Star Wars V: The Empire Strikes Back v. Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith The Lion King v. The Passion of the Christ Jurassic Park v. Animal House Back to the Future v. The Greatest Show on Earth Forrest Gump v. My Fair Lady The Godfather v. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs The Jungle Book v. The Towering Inferno The Dark Knight v. Finding Nemo Mary Poppins v. Ben-Hur The Sting v. The Bells of St. Mary's Spider-Man 2 v. Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid Doctor Zhivago v. Jurassic World Gone with the Wind v. Star Wars I: The Phantom Menace Star Wars VI: Return of the Jedi v. Around the World in 80 Days The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King v. Fantasia Avatar v. The Robe The Graduate v. American Graffiti 101 Dalmatians v. Airport The Avengers v. Goldfinger The Exorcist v. Beverly Hills Cop Ghostbusters v. Cleopatra Pinocchio v. Grease The Ten Commandments v. Home Alone Titanic v. Thunderball Independence Day v. Spider-Man Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest v. Love Story Batman (1989) v. Sleeping Beauty Blazing Saddles v. Shrek 2

I would not discard another delay until 2019, just 10 years after first part. If I am not wrong, Cameron is making the 3 sequels back-to-back, isn't he? That is a lot of work, and as both Baumer and Chewy have said, Cameron uses to take long time between films.

Just for the record, I take the average of 3 months (usual runtime) since the release date. I mean, if Avatar was released on December 18th, I take the ER average from Dec 18th until March 18th. I do not know if this is a valid way or not. Although even taking other ER of the same frame period, the final numbers do not change substantially. But I understand your doubts about our calculations methods. I do not pretend to make something like a Bible, in what everyone must have absolute faith that those data are truth. It is just a reference and a game Concerning the way we should adjust with every conditions considered (ER, inflation, 3D, ...), I have some doubts about what people think we should consider. And let's take a concrete example to show it. Avatar sold in Spain (according Ministry of Culture) 9,249,850 + 286,368 = 9,536,218 admissions and grossed 74,557,153 + 2,475,614 = €77,032,767 (Original release + Special edition) Dividing gross by admissions we have that the average ticket price for Avatar was €8.08. However, the average ticket price in Spain during 2009 was €6.13 and during 2010, €6.54. So, Avatar tickets were about 24-32% more expensive than average because of 3D. Whit this premise, I have a doubt/question. If in 2015 average ticket price has been about €6.3 according first estimations, what ticket price should we apply to calculate the gross that Avatar would had done today, €6.3 like for every other film, or a 24-32% higher than that amount because of 3D increase? We could see this: Just 2015 Avg ticket price - 9,536,218 * 6.3 = €60,078,173 = $65,104,013 (1.083655 current ER) 2015 Avg ticket price plus a 24% increase because of 3D (relative to 2010 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 9,536,218 * 6,3 * 1.24 = €74,496,935 = $80,728,976 2015 Avg ticket price plus a 32% increase because of 3D (relative to 2009 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 9,536,218 * 6,3 * 1.32 = €79,303,189 = $85,937,297 And applying the 21% overall inflation increase you mentioned in Avatar 2 thread we have: - €77,032,767 * 1.21 = €93,209,648 = $101,007,101 With every case we obtain a lower amount than Avatar's real gross (according BOM), which was $111,967,209. Of course, these calculations are for a local market that has had many problems in terms of economical crisis and deflation. We could look at another market whose behaviour has been more normal like Germany: Avatar grossed €114,540,786 and sold 11,292,801 admissions (according InsideKino), so the avg ticket price for the movie was €10.14. Average ticket price in Germany in 2009 and 2010 was €6.67 and €7.27, respectively (according InsideKino too), so the Avatar avg ticket price was a 39-52% higher than average. Making similar calculations than for Spain case: Just 2015 Avg ticket price (€8.16) - 11,292,801 * 8.16 = €92,149,256 = $99,858,002 (1.083655 current ER) 2015 Avg ticket price plus a 39% increase because of 3D (relative to 2010 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 11,292,801 * 8.16 * 1.39 = €128,087,466 = $138,802,623 2015 Avg ticket price plus a 52% increase because of 3D (relative to 2009 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 11,292,801 * 8.16 * 1.52 = €140,066,869 = $151,784,163 And applying the 21% overall inflation increase you mentioned in Avatar 2 thread we have: - €114,540,786 * 1.21 = €138,594,351 = $150,188,461 In all the cases the result is lower than the real Germany gross, which was $162,333,962 (according BOM). In both cases, Spain and Germany, we get smaller amounts than the real grosses. The ER drop is so strong that even 7 years of inflation are not able to compensate it. No matters if the inflation has been flat (Spain) or 22% (Germany). And finally we can consider the US case. We do not have the admissions data, but BOM published an article (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2728&p=.htm) estimating Avatar had sold 75 million admissions when it was at $745m. Following the same progression, Avatar sold 76.56 million admissions, what means $9.93 average ticket price. Since in 2009, average ticket price was $7.50 and in 2010, $7.89, the increase because of 3D/IMAX was 26-32% (quite similar to Spanish case, so we can asume that number of admissions is quite accurate). With today average ticket price ($8.70) and that admissions figure, we can have these scenarios: Just 2016 Avg ticket price ($8.70) - 76,560,000 * 8.70 = $666,072,000 2016 Avg ticket price plus a 26% increase because of 3D (relative to 2010 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 76,560,000 * 8.70 * 1.26 = $839,250,720 2016 Avg ticket price plus a 32% increase because of 3D (relative to 2009 avg ticket price), according the calculated range - 76,560,000 * 8.70 * 1.32 = $879,215,040 And applying the 21% overall inflation increase you mentioned in Avatar 2 thread we have: - $760,507,625 * 1.21 = $920,214,226 The behaviour in US can be considered normal in terms of inflation since the ER factor does not exist. With this I do not want to say that SW7 can beat or even be compared to Avatar. It is obvious that in terms of admissions, Avatar wins by a considerable margin in nearly every country in the world. I will not discuss it. And we can probably agree that today, just China would had been able to make so much money in order to compensate the drop in gross because of ER factor. I have Avatar as the second biggest overall run ever just behind, of course, Titanic. This kind of exercises will not change that fact. But the ER factor distortion is so evident that we are just trying to put into perspective things, not only for this Avatar vs Star Wars showdown, but for every other film. And it is a factor that does not depend on the economy I can have at my home. I pay in euros and I do not care how much money is able to earn a film in dollars. I care if a ticket cost me €6, €8 or €10. It can depend on the year we are, if it has 3D or even if the cinema is better and more expensive than the cinema sited 10 kilometers away. We call it inflation. But if I pay €6.30 for a ticket, I do not care if it means $6.83 (today ER), or if it means $8.80 (2009-2010 ER). For this reason, I think we can separate ER discussion from the adjusting debate, which is quite more complex. We just want to make an egalitarian UNADJUSTED worldwide ranking. After that, we can discuss if Avatar wins or not, something that I think is quite evident. Sorry about this so long post, but I have not been able to make it shorter

January 22 - 28: 1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2. Suicide Squad 3. Rogue One 4. Star Trek Beyond 5. Captain America: Civil War 6. Finding Dory 7. Doctor Strange 8. Bourne 5 9. The Infiltrator 10. Zootopia

Yes. 2.05b seems the target. However, you can argue that Titanic original run has already been outgrossed (1.842b).

Good summary and glad to see so great films as the favorite for Chinese people (including Relatos Salvajes on top of the 2015 foreign films, a very recommendable film ) It is quite annoying to pretend that some certain countries are something like idiots just because they consume massively IMPORTED sci-fi, robots or action films. Those films are consumed massively EVERYWHERE, not just in China. I guess we are talking about Transformers or Furious sagas, and we should have to remember that those products of "doubtful" quality do not come from China, but are invented and made in US, the country that has made many of the best films ever done, but that is able to make and export many shitty films (and consume them massively too). Those tics of moral superiority saying something like "you have no idea, your tastes are shit" are absurd, annoying and simply they are not true. Everywhere (not just in US, but in every country in the world), and most of us consume the same shit.

Yes, that figure seems to be right. Thank you for your words and for opening this specific thread It is very interesting this kind of discussions and make more clear some kind of comparisons.

That calculation seems quite accurate. Said this, probably just China would had been enough to reach again the 2.78b original figure. Some days ago, I read in the Chinese thread that Avatar 2 is already quite high in one list of the most anticipated films.

My bad. I applied a wrong percentage. It is right. We would be talking about 2.425b WW, asuming $925m DOM.

Not so high, but 1.35-1.4b for sure. We would be talking about 2.3-2.35b WW.

Just for the ER factor, Avatar would drop to 2.35b. To consider another factors (beyond inflation) is just pure speculation. Concerning 3D factor, Avatar was precisely the film which started the 3D trend. So, if Avatar had been released today, maybe we would not have had 3D films during last 6 years and Avatar would be a novelty again . Very difficult to say.

I do not think it is embarrasing. Many of us here were predicting $150m for it before release (basically following the behaviour of the market and of course attending what experts in the market have been saying here during months). It is making 115-120, something that can be considered a decent amount. Can it be considered a disappointment? maybe, but not a shameful amount. Not every WW blockbusters must make F7 or even JW-AoU figures. We can remember that, for example, when China was a very small market in early 00s, both Harry Potter and LOTR made more money than the SW prequels. Maybe it is not a very significant data but it can serve to find a pattern of tastes. What would had done today LOTR or HP in China? Well, DH2 did $60m in 2011 and Hobbit 3 did $125m just 1 year ago. Following that logic and the expansion of the market, I find the gross of SW7 in China quite logical. IMHO, Rogue One could perfectly make more than SW7 in China.

Well, I said (and that is just my opinion), the best way, not the only way. As you well say there are multiple factors to take into account, but if we consider all of them it would be impossible to make comparisons, and threads like this or the usual grosses lists would have no-sense. At the end you have to fix some standards and asume that there will never exist a completely fair and exact way of comparison. Some people can think the unadjusted gross list is the best way, other people can think in admissions, others can say that the best way is the percentage of admissions relative to current population... the list can be infinite. This is just a game for me. I do not earn money making lists or calculations. I just enjoy doing it. But I will not spend tons of time taking into account hundreds of variables that maybe I would not know how to size or include. I would become mad. I think admissions is a good measurer, but I am open to look at other ways of measure.

I agree. Admissions is the best way to compare. But, as you well say, we just have some countries figures (Spain, France, Germany, South Korea, Switzerland, Brazil or Argentina). With grosses we can just make an estimation, implying an error for sure.

This is the key post. We can speculate about how many admissions would had sold a film today. We will never know if Avatar would had sold today the same amount of admissions or if it would had had the same 3D ratio. And we will never know if people would had been so much impacted by TFA around the world in 2010, just 5 years after ROTS and if it would had had a biggest 3D ratio. And we can speculate too about how much would had done today Avatar in China or another expanding markets, probably quite more than it really did. But those questions can not be asked with just one answer. There are multiple factors that can affect it. But the ER factor has no subjective arguments. ER factors are just numbers that people do not care when they buy a ticket with their local currency. When I buy a ticket to see a film I am thinking in if the ticket is expensive in euros. But I am not thinking if it gives to the box office of the film $8 or $10. I give a shit about it (well, maybe I think about it remembering this kind of conversations , but 99.999% of the population do not care). So the debate about "adjusting" and what would had done today must be separated of the ER debate. Inflation, expanding markets or 3D has nothing to do with ER. The ER adjusting is undeniable and undebatable, and looking at the title of the thread it seems to be the target of this conversation.

Great work, Linkster I have some experience doing this kind of exercises. I prefer to bring to present the last grosses instead looking at what would had done a film with x year ERs. With that premise, I share with my data about the figures of Avatar with today ERs (calculated at Christmas). I give markets where Avatar reached $10m: MKT: Avatar original vs Avatar today ER vs TFA Argentina: 13.5 vs 3.96 vs 7.3 Australia: 105.8 vs 84.9 vs 57.9 Austria: 14.1 vs 10.9 vs 8.1 Belgium: 13.6 vs 10.5 vs 8.36 Brazil: 58.2 vs 26.2 vs 24.79 Chile: 10.5 vs 7.6 vs 7.04 China: 204.1 vs 215.0 vs 95 Colombia: 13.6 vs 8.2 vs 4.09 Czech Rep.: 12.5 vs 9.2 vs 3.6 Denmark: 22.9 vs 17.6 vs 10.57 France: 175.6 vs 135.2 vs 77.1 Germany: 162.3 vs 124.9 vs 95.5 Greece: 10.6 vs 7.9 vs 3.02 Hong Kong: 22.9 vs 22.95 vs 10.47 India: 24.2 vs 16.93 vs 4.1 Israel: 13.1 vs 12.62 vs 2.7 Italy: 83.5 vs 65.84 vs 27.96 Japan: 172.0 vs 128.7 vs 69.4 Mexico: 44.2 vs 33.1 vs 26.31 Netherlands: 23.7 vs 18.23 vs 13.28 New Zealand: 12.6 vs 12.96 vs 8.55 Norway: 14.2 vs 9.46 vs 8.22 Poland: 28.3 vs 20.92 vs 13.7 Russia: 117.1 vs 49.69 vs 24.3 South Korea: 105.5 vs 103.37 vs 23.19 Spain: 110.0 vs 84.69 vs 33.04 Sweden: 22.2 vs 18.89 vs 16.6 Switzerland: 15.7 vs 16.61 vs 10.9 Taiwan: 13.6 vs 13.33 vs 6.0 Turkey: 17.7 vs 8.98 vs 5.4 UK: 150.0 vs 139.63 vs 164.03 Total: 1.794b vs 1.437b vs 871m (every figure comes from BOM excepting TFA in China, which is the one I remember from this weekend) According my calculations, Avatar would had done about 2.35b WW applying current ERs, and not applying any kind of inflation. And TFA seems to be headed to 2.05-2.1b. Even with the ER factor, the difference is still quite big, huge if we just look at OS figures. After this, we can debate if Avatar was EXTREMELY bloated because 3D, something that is undeniable, or what would had happened if TFA had got the 3D ratio of Avatar. That is another debate and BO-fiction. Anyway, I love to see this kind of debates

Well, population has increased barely in 2 million since 1995 (127 vs 125). It is basically the same number of tickets per person and year. And the fact that there are more films do not imply that biggest films are less attended. It can imply that there are more films that nobody see. A good example is that the second biggest film ever has been released less than 2 years ago. Or the fact that TFA is selling more tickets than previous episodes, just excepting TPM and not too far, something that can be seen as pretty normal. BTW, if you want to answer to this post, we can continue in this thread (http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18043-adjusting-exchange-rates/), since this conversation has no sense here.

http://www.eiren.org/statistics_e/index.html I do not see that drop. Mods: Last off topic. I promise.

What is the potential of the new local openers? Can they be a big competition for Star Wars not only because of showtimes, but for real impact in BO?

Well, the article talks about young people and it seems to speak just about US, but the general attendance has not dropped so much. US for example keep the level of admissions year after year. There are countries whose attendance has dropped, like Germany, Australia or Spain, other countries like France, UK or Japan that keep the level of attendance that they had 15 years ago, and other countries which have expanded (some of them a lot) their attendance like, of course, China, and Brazil, South Korea, or Mexico. I do not see a dramatic drop in global attendance beyond conjuctural moments given by economical crisis (Spain is rebounding in attendance, for example).

I do not see that dramatic drop in attendance generalized. I am conscious that there are some countries that in fact have dropped. Spain is maybe the best example but it is very conditioned by a brutal economical crisis, not because people prefer to do other things. In general, I see the same attendance figures in the 2000 developed markets. In some of them maybe a bit lower, in other a bit higher, but nothing dramatic.

Thank you I understand that there are two sources for SW Yen figures: 4.5b Yen and 6.1b Yen, what would mean somewhere bewteen 4.5 and 6 million admissions, taking into account the average ticket price in 1978.

Sure, FB should be able to make more than those 800m Yuan that seems the roof for TFA. I just looked at @terrestrial list and it was not included.

@tupek @InfernusI have seen you mentioned in the China's thread that you want to see Titanic's admissions figures in certain markets in order to compare better the grosses with actual films. That is not the best place to discuss it, so I move the discussion here. I think we can look at several films to compare admissions and see the size that Titanic had. I have choosen Titanic, Avatar, Star Wars, TFA and Harry Potter 1. If someone wants another film, just ask for it: Spain (Ministry of Culture) Titanic: 11,265,694 (10,841,850 (1998) + 423,844 (2012)) Avatar: 9,536,218 (9,249,850 (2009) + 286,368 (Special Edition)) Star Wars: 6,900,868 (5,595,857 (1977) + 1,305,011 (1997)) TFA: 4,300,000 (current) HP1: 6,312,765 France (jp-boxoffice) Titanic: 21,774,181 (20,634,793 (1998) + 1,139,388 (2012)) Avatar: 14,775,990 (14,677,888 (2009) + 98,102 (Special Edition)) Star Wars: 6,449,614 (3,800,000 (1977) + 844,000 (1982) + 1,795,614 (1997)) TFA: 9,139,673 (current. France thread says it has already reached 10 million) HP1: 9,470,090 Germany (InsideKino) Titanic: 18,809,599 (18,081,331 (1998) + 700,300 (2012)) Avatar: 11,307,305 (10,897,142 (2009) + 395,659 (Special Edition)) Star Wars: 8,020,972 (4,600,000 (1977) + 1,235,909 (1982) + 2,185,063 (1997)) TFA: 7,630,761 (current) HP1: 12,565,067 UK (BFI) Titanic: 18,910,000 Avatar: 16,513,904 Star Wars: 20,760,000 TFA: About 14-15 million admissions (current) HP1: 17,560,000 Japan (Japan thread) Titanic: 16,830,000 Avatar: 10,100,000 Star Wars: I do not have data. TFA: 8-8.5 million admissions, if I am not wrong with the projected gross 11b yen. HP1: 16,200,000 Italy (Lumiere and Italy thread) Titanic: 8,758,019 Avatar: 7,494,123 Star Wars: I do not have data. TFA: 3,218,088 (current) HP1: 4,958,435 Argentina (cinesargentinos.com) Titanic: 4,700,000 Avatar: 2,862,000 Star Wars: I do not have data TFA: 1,200,000 (current) HP1: 1,593,000 Brazil (adorocinema.com and a Place in OneNote mantained by one poster, but whose name I can not remember ) Titanic: 17,713,310 Avatar: 9,150,778 Star Wars: 4,459,027 TFA: 5,958,672 (current) HP1: 4,529,827 If anyone knows more countries data or can correct some data posted, please, feel free to do it and complete the list