peludo

The real merit is that it can do it without being released in China and without 3D.

Spain grew in 2015 too: 8.4% in euro gross (€571 million) and a 6,7% in admissions (94 million). http://variety.com/2015/film/global/spains-box-office-2015-1201669489/ Anyway, still far from the gross record (€691 million in 2004). That year, more than 140 million admissions were sold. The record of all time registered is quite higher, but it was another time (late 60s). Said this, for the moment, this year is increasing too

For the moment, China could already have the biggest film in a single country of whole 2016. I have serious doubts that any film can reach Mermaid's level (over $500m) in US this year. There are contenders, but locked? I do not see anyone. Rogue One, BvS, Civil War or Dory could make it, but I see it really hard. It is hard to compare until now the two markets, since China has already had one of the biggest box office moments of the year, if not the biggest (CNY), while US is crossing one of the weakest (excepting surprises like Deadpool), so it is better to wait. But for the moment we have this: $500m: US 0 vs China 0 (Mermaid locked in China to reach it) $400m: US 0 vs China 1 $300m: US 0 vs China 1 (Deadpool locked in US to reach it) $200m: US 1 vs China 1 $150m: US 1 vs China 4 (including KFP3) $100m: US 2 vs China 5 Last year, during the 2 first months of the year, China had just 1 film able to reach $150m. This year we already have 4. We will see what happens.

I do not know if locked, but it seems quite likely. The target for that achievement is about 3.25b Yuan and people are talking about the chance of 3.5b

Raiders of the Lost Ark vs. Back to the Future Star Wars IV: A New Hope vs. The Godfather The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King vs. The Lion King Jaws vs. Star Wars V: The Empire Strikes Back

I can compare 1 whole holidays week (Mermaid) with Opening+2 Christmas weeks (Star Wars), since holidays dailys are abnormaly high relative to the rest of the year. It is not an exact comparison, but since there are not two equal holidays periods in any country in the world, I think it is the closer situation we can see between USA and China, IMHO. Anyway, both runs are impressive.

That is basically the definition of Star Wars run in US

Until 2013, biggest film was Avatar with $204m. In 2014 came TF4 which did $320m. In 2015, another 2 films beat TF4 by another $70m, making over $390m. Now, just 6 months after Monster Hunt, The Mermaid is beating all of them, reaching $500m... You say that in 2019 US has Star Wars 9. That same year China has Transformers 7 (and 2 or 3 local hits)... I would not rule out the chance so early. And I have serious doubts that SW9 can beat SW7. IMO, no matters the quality, this trilogy can have the same behaviour than the other two trilogies.

Spain - Update 1. Avatar: €77,032,767 2. 8 Apellidos Vascos: €55,352,976 3. The Impossible: €42,408,547 4. Titanic: €41,615,692 5. 8 Apellidos Catalanes: €36,119,054 6. Star Wars VII: €32,976,286 7. The Return of the King: €32,933,303 8. The Fellowship of the Ring: €31,332,601 9. The Two Towers: €29,793,649 10. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: €28,272,305 Both 8 Apellidos Catalanes and Star Wars VII are still on cinemas, but the ranking will not change. The rest of films for the top 50 are: Edit: just to comment that I have always asumed that €6m in Spain is similar to $100m in USA. Looking at each country unadjusted lists I see there are 56 films over $300m in USA and 58 films over €18m in Spain, pretty similar amounts. Following that pattern we could conclude that, for instance, Star Wars 7 has made in Spain an amount comparable to about $550m in USA.

February 12 - 18: 1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 2. Suicide Squad 3. Rogue One 4. Star Trek Beyond 5. Captain America: Civil War 6. Finding Dory 7. Doctor Strange 8. Bourne 5 9. The Infiltrator 10. Zootopia

So, this will be the 6th or 7th biggest run ever in a single country just behind the 5 films which did more than $600m in US (TFA, Avatar, Titanic, JW, TA), and The Dark Knight ($534m), which could be the outgrossed. And destroying the current Chinese all time record in the same way than TFA has done in US, by quite more than $100m. No words.

So, we can say that $500m is close to be locked, $550m are possible and there is a slim chance of $600m, isn't it?

Raiders of the Lost Ark vs. Doctor Zhivago Star Wars IV: A New Hope vs. Star Wars VI: Return of the Jedi The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers vs. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (this is like choosing between mom and dad) Jaws vs. Mary Poppins Star wars V: The Empire Strikes Back vs. The Dark Knight The Lion King vs. 101 Dalmatians Jurassic Park vs. The Godfather Back to the Future vs. Forrest Gump

So today Mermaid can finish with about 1.46 billion, right? That is about $223m in 6 days. Top put into perspective: it is a similar 6-day opening to Ultron (227) or TDK (222) in US... And if tomorrow finishes with about $275m that would be just behind the opening week of TFA (363) and Jurassic World (296), and similar to Avengers (270).

Should not we wait to see how it holds after holidays? I do not know too much abot Chinese market, but I guess that when holidays are finished, amounts will drop a lot. Does anyone know what is the usual multiplier since the end of CNY holidays? I mean, if Mermaid grosses 1.8b Yuan by the end of holidays, and with the ending range you are proposing, it would mean a x1.67-x1.94 multiplier range since the end of holidays. Is that possible or common? Just questioning. And by the way, the 3-3.5b range would mean about 450-530 million dollars. This film could already be the highest grosser in a single country when 2016 is done. I just can think in 2-3 films in US with the potential to do it (BvS, CA3, Rogue One and maybe a surprise), and none of them are locked to do it.

So, we would already have the first $400m grosser in China, even the first $450m film if it reaches that 3 billion figure that you say. How fun are this kind of runs and to see how each 6 months the first spot in all time list is different.

Huge start for The Revenant

TDKR did 350m Yuan in 2012 and Man of Steel 394m in 2013. I would be fine with a bit more than doubling MoS figures, with a 800-900 million range. Anything more would already be, IMHO, a well-received extra. I prefer to be cautious seeing how last franchise films have not made absurd figures (Spectre, TFA, KFP3...)

Taking into account that TFA has finished in China with $125m, it needs another $23m OS to be the only film, beyond Avatar and Titanic, reaching 1 billion outside US and China.

IMHO, that is even harder that a mere adjust by inflation. With admissions data you can make an "easy" extrapolation. But to imagine what would had done each film asuming the market growth of each market seems impossible to me. Anyway, Titanic would still win.

So 603m total. Thank you very much

What should we expect for BvS, about TFA numbers maybe?

And there is not delay relative to the rest of the world. That is always good news.

I have been revising the all time list (http://www.cbooo.cn/Alltimedomestic) and I am a bit confused with the film "2012". It has two entries (#82 and #83), both with 452.27m Yuan. Does anyone know the real gross of this film? Thank you in advance.

Sure. And today, 13 years later, it is still very remarkable to make over 1.1b. And it did not need China to achieve it. Great run, no matter how you look at.