Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[JJ-8]

just for comparison, GI Joe only made 7.9m... GI Joe just past 10m... this weekend.  and given where it's at should be able to manage it into the 12m range when all is said in done... i nice little increase...

 

As for the croods.....

 

it's tracking quite nicely ... probably end up around 23m AUD... (it's slightly ahead of Wreck it ralph at the same point which peaked at 23m. but behind madagascar 3 which went onto 24m)  

 

The croods has had a big boost over the past few weeks but i would say most films are all about to take a big hit come thursday as we get iron man 3 1 week early down under......

 

the croods might have 1 more good weekend in it given it's a public holiday on thursday but after that watch for a free fall

[JJ-8]

for Iron Man 3.... the trailers look good.. a lot of good will from The Avengers and there is definantly a link to it as shown in the trailer (though i think the link will be less.... )

 

but what can it open to here in australia......

 

Iron Man 2 opened with 9.5m in 2010 without the help of 3D or the Avengers.... 

 

hmmm tough call i don't want to say it will beat the avengers because i don't see that happening however i think the normal 4 day could be topped.. remember the avengers opened on the wednesday which was it's biggest day (6m) and had a 13m following that massive OD....

 

so here's my shot at what iron man 3 can manage....

 

OD (thurs) = 5.4m

Fri = 3.2m

Sat = 3.4m

Sun = 3.0m

 

OW = 15.0m

 

Sounds insane but i thinkt he goodwill from The Avengers will push this up there ..... thoughts everyone ?

 

EDIT - if this doesn't out open Iron Man 2, that would have to be an outright failure (for what reason i'll never understand)

 

here are my bars for success:

 

< 6m (iron man ) - we have a certified flop on our hands and no doubt it's flopped elsewhere 

< 10m (iron man 2) - i'd be shocked if this does less at this point.... big disappointment if it happens

< 12m - dissappointment ... not a flop however... given the history till now... anything else will be a surprise

< 15m - expected range in my mind given the history

> 15m - we are in for a hell of a ride then... cause this just opened outta this world......

Edited April 22, 2013 by Jajang

[Halba]

15m is too much

there isnt much buzz for it in australia

most think its overhyped

[DeeCee]

Jajang, it opens on Wednesday.

[JJ-8]

well ok that throws a spanner in the works for my prediction  

 

interestingly some sites still list it as 25th ... but yes you are right... it is indeed coming out on the 24th....

 

ok then.... here is my predict:

 

Wed - 5m

Thurs - 2m

Fri - 3m

Sat 3.2m

Sun - 2.6m

 

10.6m OW after a 5m OD (15.6m 5 day).... so somewhere between iron man 2 & the avengers is my thinking.

[JJ-8]

15m is too much

there isnt much buzz for it in australia

most think its overhyped

fair point accept iron man 2 opened to 9.7m in 2010.  The increase in ticket price alone puts the same attendance on OW @ 10.6m

 

Add in 3D and that can easily be 12m+ 

 

And none of this takes into account the goodwill from the avengers given the very large links to that film.  hence why i would not be surprised at a 15m OW .... but given it's opening on the wednesday we won't see that size opening..... but should in excess including the wednesday of course.....

[JJ-8]

well ok that throws a spanner in the works for my prediction

 

interestingly some sites still list it as 25th ... but yes you are right... it is indeed coming out on the 24th....

 

ok then.... here is my predict:

 

Wed - 5m

Thurs - 2m

Fri - 3m

Sat 3.2m

Sun - 2.6m

 

10.6m OW after a 5m OD (15.6m 5 day).... so somewhere between iron man 2 & the avengers is my thinking.

secondary thought...... given most will be in school & @ work... then i think i might revise this prediction:

 

wed - 2.5m

Thurs - 3m

Fri - 3m

Sat - 3.2m

Sun - 2.5m

 

OW = 11.7m OW after a 2.5m OD (i have no idea on this given it's put the OD on a normal school and work day... )  the holiday is thursday which means the $ could be spread between both of these days.....

[lab276]

I think Thursday will be bigger than that. Everyone having the day off > fanboys.

Edited April 22, 2013 by lab276

[JJ-8]

I think Thursday will be bigger than that. Everyone having the day off > fanboys.

yes maybe, but there is a -ve against being big big.... no mids on thursday and also no cinemas showing films before 1pm because of anzac day... (that is why the 6m OD that the avengers is simply amazing it had mids but nothing between the mids session and 1pm.... )

[lab276]

yes maybe, but there is a -ve against being big big.... no mids on thursday and also no cinemas showing films before 1pm because of anzac day... (that is why the 6m OD that the avengers is simply amazing it had mids but nothing between the mids session and 1pm.... )

Are you sure? I can see sessions as early as 9:30 from various cinemas in Sydney.

[JJ-8]

Chermside isn't showing any sessions pre 1.45pm in QLD (chermside is one of the top 5 locations in australia memory) on thursday.

 

(however it's showing them all day wednesday)

 

EDIT - i believe it's a requirement in respect to the ANZACs so am surprised if there are some ignoring it.  either way i doubt there will be much interest till after lunch either way since a large bulk will be at the morning ceremonies anyway.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Jajang

[lab276]

Is it a Queensland thing?

[JJ-8]

Is it a Queensland thing?

As far as I know, it's a Australian thing.. hence ANZAC Day ??????  

[lab276]

I checked Marion (in SA) and Innaloo (WA) and they both have sessions from 9:30. But looking at Village Cinemas, they're not showing till after 1. Not really sure what's going on.

[DeeCee]

It depends on the individual state restrictions.

[JJ-8]

I checked Marion (in SA) and Innaloo (WA) and they both have sessions from 9:30. But looking at Village Cinemas, they're not showing till after 1. Not really sure what's going on.

ok just investigated....  It's different from state to state.

 

Victoria - After 1pm unless exempt

NT - unknown at this time not clear

QLD - after 1.30pm

NSW - offiically from 1pm

SA - generally all closed all day accept for CBD after 12 noon.  

WA - appears closed all day

 

once again there are excemptions to the above (this was mostly referring to general retail and not cinemas) so in some cases cinemas can open before 1pm... but in some cases it can't....

[Ball Lightning]

Avengers made 6m on Anzac day. So I think 4m-5m should be quite achievable for Ironman 3. 1.5-2.5m OD, I don't think its going to be too crazy. Most people will wait until anzac day. 

 

 

wed - 2m

Thurs - 5m

Fri - 2.7m

Sat - 3.4m

Sun - 2.4m

 

13.5m OW, Helped by Anzac day falling within the weekend this year. 

[lab276]

Could it make it to $50m?

[Robertron]

Could it make it to $50m?

Almost impossible.That would require doubling Iron Man 2 and also coming close to The Avengers - I don't think goodwill will be that strong.

[Robertron]

$35m is what I'm expecting and would be an exceptional increase given its a third film in the 'Iron Man' franchise.