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ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' becomes biggest 2024 film

By Quigley, in International Box Office

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted

Jesus Christ!

This is not good. This is absolutely crazy!

70% higher than Venom, which already outdid expectations, and 30%+ higher than Captain Marvel, which was one of the rare sh solo movies to go above 10M AND opened on a Wednesday (stronger weekday).

Comparisons with Aquaman and FFH mustn't be considered, as the first opened in one of the two most lucrative days of the year (1st of January) and the second had an inflated OD in the middle of summer.

 

This OD indicates that Joker has a very good chance of overtaking Far From Home (11.75) as the second highest sh movie of the year, and that Aladdin (15.42) is not safe at #3.

 

The rest of the chart:

 

2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 129.841 19.255
3 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 53.431 7.970
4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 48.594 7.796
5 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 42.979 7.394
6 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 41.545 6.816
7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 31.947 5.258
8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 20.299 3.307
9 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 13.855 2.377
10 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 9.752 1.830

 

Once Upon a Time is not getting good legs at all. May just barely beat Django's 12M.

Rambo surprisingly had a decent retention from OD. Not too bad for Ad Astra either.

The Lion King is out of the top 10 for the first time since the 21st of August.

 

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted

04/09/19 (Friday)

 

1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.232.535 175.274
2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 182.685 25.926
3 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 87.319 14.681
4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 77.533 11.783
5 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 64.319 9.105
6 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 61.007 10.016
7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 45.813 7.320
8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 36.244 5.487
9 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 23.244 3.776
10 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 21.009 3.626

 

Aaaand a Friday increase. :bouncy:

A terrific performance so far! It's going to be like a 5.5/6.0M OW, but if it goes above 6.1 it will be the third highest opening weekend since Fast & Furious 8 2.5 years ago (with Endgame and The King obviously being #1 and #2). Too bad it's not going to be a rainy weekend.

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted (edited)

05/09/19 (Saturday)

 

1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 2.113.016 280.797
2 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 355.523 47.087
3 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 283.586 44.383
4 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 169.238 23.847
5 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 143.954 21.801
6 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 116.365 15.480
7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 102.678 15.125
8 YESTERDAY 26/09/2019 GBR UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 82.971 11.532
9 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 80.064 12.645
10 APPENA UN MINUTO 03/10/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 61.714 9.372

 

:ohmyzod:

 

Insane!

70%+ rise on Saturday. Third highest opening weekend in the last 2.5 years in the bag. It's also opening higher than Furious 8 (6.2M) and with a good Sunday rise (very unlikely - but a 70%+ rise on Sat was very unlikely too, so who knows) it will open on par or higher than freaking Beauty and the Beast (6.9M). Unbelievable. At this point, Aladdin may really lose its 3rd place in the yearly chart sooner than expected. And Joker has a chance at becoming the highest grossing non-Raimi/Avengers sh movie ever.

Edited by Omni
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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted

Nailed it!

1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.828.475 244.680
2 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 360.162 55.916
3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 238.148 32.277
4 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 124.023 19.292
5 DORA E LA CITTA' PERDUTA (DORA AND THE LOST CITY OF GOLD) 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 121.259 18.984
6 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 112.394 15.978
7 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 106.426 15.897
8 SHAUN, VITA DA PECORA - FARMAGEDDON (A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON) 26/09/2019 GBR KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 85.511 13.086
9 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 80.895 10.860
10 IL RE LEONE (THE LION KING) 21/08/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 74.927 11.530

 

A bad weekend for holdovers, a fantastic weekend for Joker. I'm leaving comparisons, projections and other stuff to the usual weekend recap.

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted (edited)

This movie is a monster. 50% drop from Sunday. Passed 1.000.000 admissions already.

 

WEEKEND RESULTS (3/6 OCTOBER)

 

RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS CONVERTED TO NA
1 Joker 6.263.907 NEW 6.263.907

125.30/

125.30

2 Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood 911.249 -58% 10.563.262 18.20/211.30
3 Abominable 778.387 NEW 778.387 15.60/15.60
4 Ad Astra

411.473

-50% 1.463.452 8.20/29.30
5

Tuttapposto (It)

376.298 NEW 376.298 7.50/7.50
6 Rambo: Last Blood 317.292

-56%

1.281.383 6.30/25.60
7 Inside Leonardo (It) 288.660

NEW

323.782 5.70/6.50
8 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 233.436 -44% 719.815 4.70/14.40
9 Yesterday

194.206

-60% 811.247 3.90/16.20
10 Appena un Minuto (It) 149.440 NEW 149.440 3.00/3.00

 

The weekend was up 13.89% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to 13.96%.

0.21% gained. One could think Joker's crazy opening would have ensured a bigger gain, but holdovers have been too weak. The number 2 movie of the same weekend last year was Incredibles 2, with 1.56M vs this year's 0.91M by Tarantino.

 

Joker is clearly the story of the weekend. Its opening is the second highest 4-day OW ever for a comic book movie, behind only Endgame. It did beat even Spider Man 3, though that movie's 5.974.247 was set when the weekend was still Fri-to-Sun. The opening is even higher than all the other Avengers movies (due to the fact they always open earlier and burn a lot of demand before the weekend) and than The Dark Knight Rises (6.95M opening, but just 3.95 OW as the rest was - again - grossed in the weekdays before.

The best comparison for the movie is obviously Venom, which opened this exact weekend last year and made 3.73M OW for an 8.5M total gross. Using that movie's legs we get a 14.24M total gross (which would be around 2.1M admissions) but I'm pretty sure Joker will do better than that, thanks to the better reception. Monday's crazy hold is a great sign. I'd go with 15.5/16.0, above Aladdin's 15.43 gross but below it in admissions.

 

And this is the top superhero top 10:

  

1) Avengers: Endgame > 30,27
2) Spider Man > 19,26
3) Spider Man 2 > 18,98
4) Avengers – Infinity War > 18,77
5) Spider Man 3 > 18,04
6) The Avengers > 17,97
7) Avengers – Age of Ultron > 16,55
8- Iron Man 3 > 16,09 
9) The Dark Knight Rises > 14,67
10) Suicide Squad > 12,11

Joker has to make 16.10M in order to become the highest grossing non-Avengers/Raimi superhero movie ever, and the highest grossing non-Raimi sh solo ever.

 

Everything else did awfully. Once Upon a Time's legs have been really really bad. Unfortunately, reception for the movie turned out to be pretty mixed, and Joker provided much more competition than initially forecast. The movie has now a chance of failing to beat Django's 12.05M total.

 

Outside the top 10, The Lion King was #12 with a 139K weekend and a 37.31M total gross. It 2 dropped close to 80% and stands at 9.438.242 after a sub-50k weekend. Won't even reach 9.5M, awful legs for...it.

 

This week we have:

* Gemini Man > a probable sub-1M opener; Will Smith still is a name here, but the movie's concept won't be appealing, and having a greatly-reviewed 6.3M opener right behind doesn't help

* Long Shot > even a finish in the top 10 would be a win

* a few local/European movies, included the Russian animated crap The Big Trip; among these, the movie with the biggest "potential" is probably the local comedy Brave Ragazze (Good Girls), which might open at #2.

Joker's goal is to keep the drop below 50%.

Edited by Omni
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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted

08/10/19 (Tuesday)

 

1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 1.016.982 162.113
2 ROGER WATERS US+THEM 07/10/2019 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 151.081 10.687
3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 78.443 12.819
4 ROYAL OPERA HOUSE 2019-2020 08/10/2019 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 40.345 3.542
5 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 37.146 7.240
6 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 34.441 6.602
7 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 32.830 5.677
8 RAMBO - LAST BLOOD 26/09/2019 BGR NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 30.489 5.079
9 IO, LEONARDO 02/10/2019 ITA LUCKY RED DISTRIB. € 29.211 5.361
10 L'UOMO CHE VOLLE VIVERE 120 ANNI 08/10/2019 ITA ZENIT DISTRIBUTION € 26.101 4.277

 

Unbelievable. 11% increase after a nuts Monday.

Is this getting to freaking 10M before FSS begings? Currently at € 8.231.751.

All I know is I may go speachless...

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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted (edited)

With no Christmas holidays to help, the ceiling is around 4 times its 4-day OW, meaning 25 millions. But that's what I thought about Bohemian Rhapsody, and it made 29 millions.

Keep in mind that this weekend the movie will most likely get its best hold (even the Bohemian Rhapsody phenomenon did better than its 2nd weekend hold only during Christmas holidays and after Golden Globe/Oscar nominations), So we really need to see a total above 14M by Sunday to make that 25M happen. Even after that, it needs a multiplier better than 3x (assuming a 4.5/5.0 2nd weekend), which is doable only if it can keep the status of "movie to see", c'est à dire if Maleficent 2 flops, which is, I guess, kinda unlikely

.

Joker's best comparison is...Inside Out. Yes! The Pixar movie opened with 6.3M in 5 days (5.7+ 4-day OW) at the beginning of Autumn and thanks to sensational WOM it made 25.3M. That, though, required a crazy sub-10% drop on its 2nd weekend. If Joker can achieve such a thing, it may even come close to Endgame thanks to its great weekdays.

That said, as of now the most realistic goal is to become the secon biggest superhero movie ever, currently the 2002 Spider Man with 19.26 millions. Aladdin (15.43 and #3 movie of the year) will be certainly beaten.

Edited by Omni
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Omni Box Office Gold

Omni

Posted
Posted

10/10/2019 (Thursday)

 

1 JOKER 03/10/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 876.301 130.376
2 GEMINI MAN 10/10/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 102.218 16.241
3 C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD) 18/09/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 50.309 7.607
4 HOLE - L'ABISSO (THE HOLE IN THE GROUND) 10/10/2019 IRL KOCH MEDIA S.R.L. € 27.483 4.303
5 BRAVE RAGAZZE 10/10/2019 ITA VISION DISTRIBUTION € 25.656 4.370
6 NON SUCCEDE... MA SE SUCCEDE (LONG SHOT) 10/10/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 24.463 4.082
7 IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE) 03/10/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 22.395 4.196
8 TUTTAPPOSTO 03/10/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 19.490 3.672
9 LE VERITA' (LE VERITE') 10/10/2019 FRA BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 16.981 3.068
10 AD ASTRA 26/09/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 13.101 2.120

 

Well, Joker is down 15% from its crazy OD. Everything from -25% to +5% is possible over the weekend. No words.

Gemini Man did decently and may reach 1 million over the 4-day frame. Slightly better than expected. Not bad for Long Shot either. Local comedy Brave Ragazze, on the other hand, failed to reach its potential.

 

Now the question is: can Joker do what Inside Out did in 2005? Can it drop below 10%? If it does, it will have a solid chance at beating Star Wars: TFA (!!!) and even a slight chance at catching Endgame. A very small one, but still a chance. On the more conservative side, everything below a 20% drop guarantees a #2 finish in the all time superhero chart.

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