ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Xftg123]

34 minutes ago, Omni said:

Joker passed Infinity War, Spider Man 2 and the first Spider Man to become the 2nd highest superhero movie ever in the market

I did NOT expect that at all. Could it possibly surpass Endgame's gross over there (34M) or not?

[Omni]

Using euros, 30.28 is Endgame's total gross. Joker will be at 21.25 (+/-0.1) once the weekend actuals are released. Assuming everything goes right and the optimistic scenario I suggested a few posts before comes true, it will make

1.1M on weekdays #3 + 2.2 on weekend #4 > 24.55

0.6M on weekdays #4, + 1.6 on weekend #5 > 26.75

Then a 55% drop on weekend 6 (#5 will be inflated) > 0.75M weekend and 27.8/27.9 total.

Total gross would be in the 29/30M range.

 

As you can see, the chance of getting to Endgame is very very slim, and that's why I said a 4+ weekend was required to keep the Endgame dream realistically alive. Unfortunately this weekend turned out to be less rainy than expected, and we're not getting much rain in the next 10 days.

[reddevil19]

2nd highest, and fairly close to EG - should it get within a couple of million of it - is certainly something no one expected, as has the rest of its European run.

[AnDr3s]

the golden lion helped the movie in italy?

[Omni]

Of course it did! Guess it's what was needed to start perceiving the movie as a phenomenon. In fact, Joker's OD was already crazy good.

 

Sunday has been a tad weaker than expected. It was 24°C here, while it was supposed to be a rainy weekend until a few days back. That brought relatively weak holds. But that also means that Joker's 3.67M 3rd weekend was just very slightly inflated, making another good hold next weekend possible.

 

1	MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL)	17/10/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.646.914	238.284	€ 4.162.898	605.353
2	JOKER	03/10/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.190.722	157.750	€ 21.217.674	3.028.745
3	SE MI VUOI BENE	17/10/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 217.332	33.266	€ 535.592	82.165
4	IL PICCOLO YETI (ABOMINABLE)	03/10/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 200.612	30.688	€ 1.822.275	294.731
5	GEMINI MAN	10/10/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 181.427	25.546	€ 1.764.848	264.602
6	C'ERA UNA VOLTA A...HOLLYWOOD (ONCE UPON A TIME IN...HOLLYWOOD)	18/09/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 72.598	9.603	€ 11.619.640	1.668.396
7	LE VERITA' (LE VERITE')	10/10/2019	FRA	BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L.	€ 56.397	8.687	€ 420.614	68.851
8	A SPASSO COL PANDA (THE BIG TRIP)	10/10/2019	RUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 53.745	8.220	€ 278.785	44.581
9	THE KILL TEAM	17/10/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 42.815	6.187	€ 124.830	18.376
10	THE INFORMER - TRE SECONDI PER SOPRAVVIVERE	17/10/2019	USA	ADLER ENTERTAINMENT S.R.L.	€ 39.743	5.723	€ 119.764	17.511

 

+15% for Maleficent and -8.5% for Joker.

[Omni]

WEEKEND RESULTS (17/20 OCTOBER)

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	CONVERTED TO NA
1	Maleficent 2	4.162.897	NEW	4.162.897	83.30/ 83.30
2	Joker	3.665.988	-39.5%	21.217.674	73.30/424.40
3	Se mi vuoi bene (It)	535.591	NEW	535.591	10.70/10.70
4	Gemini Man	515.931	-46%	1.764.847	10.30/35.30
5	Abominable	364.876	-26%	1.822.274	7.30/36.40
6	Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood	213.946	-52%	11.619.640	4.30/232.20
7	La verité (Fr)	150.879	-30%	420.613	3.00/8.40
8	Metallica & San Francisco Symphony	144.271	NEW	144.271	2.90/2.90
9	The Kill Team	124.829	NEW	124.829	2.50/2.50
10	The Informer	119.763	NEW	119.763	2.40/2.40

 

The weekend was up 47.84% from the same weekend last year. 2019's lead on 2018 has increased to a freaking 15.43%.

Last year we had A Star is Born's second weekend and Venom's third as the highest grosses, while the biggest opener was The Happytime Murders. Big difference.

 

Maleficent 2 did very good. Its 4-day debut is just 3% below the 4.3 millions collected by the original. Legs won't be as good, as #1 opened on a Wednesday, had a holiday right after its OW and was helped by summer weekdays - but the lack of direct competition until Frozen 2, Halloween and the fact Disney LA movies tend to get solid multipliers close to 3x or higher suggest that Far From Home's 11.7M gross will be beaten and that Maleficent will get a spot in the top 10 of the year when all is said and done. Impressive.

 

Joker narrowly managed a drop in the 30's, and while this is not as good as Inside Out's 28% drop, it's still great considering how strong Maleficent was and how "poorly bad" the weather was. Inside Out added 6.60 million euros after a 3.88M 3rd weekend (which is still the 2nd highest 3rd weekend ever for a Hollywood film after Avatar), so that would put Joker a tad lower than 28 millions. Considering Inside Out faced Hotel Transylvania on weekend #4 and had worse weekdays, it's relatively safe to assume Joker will end its run above 28 millions.

 

Gemini Man is performing on par with NA, while Abominable surprisingly held very well against Jolie. Long Shot, which opened higher than expected last weekend, quickly balanced that by losing 3/4 of its audience, and will disappear from theaters in a few days.

 

This week we have Downtow Abbey, the re-release of Shining and, for those who care, Once Piece Stampede. Maleficent and Joker should have no trouble keeping the top 2 spots, and Downtown Abbey looks locked for the remaining place in the podium.

[Omni]

Maleficent 2 wins Monday with 308K (a mediocre 81% drop from Sunday), while Joker is second at 285K (-76%, down mediocre hold too, down almost 50% from previous Monday). The day being sunny pretty much everywhere sure didn't help. Hopefully some good jumps today.

[fabiopazzo2]

Strong star for Star Wars IX around my area

[Omni]

+10% for Maleficent on Tuesday. Unfortunately, Joker just remained flat and it's down 53% from last week.

[Omni]

Maleficent gets an opening week of 5.264.199 euros and 796.952 admissions. On Wednesday it was up 16% from Tuesday (394K).

Joker is now at 22.184.309 and 3.186.873 admissions. On Wednesay it at last increased, +12% for a 320K day. Still down more than 50% from last week, though.

[Omni]

Thursday numbers (25/10/19)

 

1	MALEFICENT - SIGNORA DEL MALE (MALEFICENT - MISTRESS OF EVIL)	17/10/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 238.262	38.319	€ 5.509.169	836.624
2	JOKER	03/10/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 231.372	34.214	€ 22.420.141	3.221.971
3	DOWNTON ABBEY	24/10/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 198.833	30.062	€ 198.994	30.079
4	ONE PIECE STAMPEDE - IL FILM	24/10/2019	JPN	KOCH MEDIA S.R.L.	€ 156.395	20.114	€ 160.226	20.510
5	TUTTO IL MIO FOLLE AMORE	24/10/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 58.907	9.873	€ 58.907	9.873
6	SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK	24/10/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 33.839	5.273	€ 33.839	5.273
7	FINCHE' MORTE NON CI SEPARI (READY OR NOT)	24/10/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 30.890	4.893	€ 30.993	4.912
8	VICINO ALL'ORIZZONTE (DEM HORIZONT SO NAH)	24/10/2019	DEU	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 29.457	4.465	€ 29.457	4.465
9	GEMINI MAN	10/10/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 23.143	3.821	€ 1.899.585	288.558
10	ROYAL OPERA HOUSE 2019-2020	08/10/2019	GBR	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 21.571	2.046	€ 61.917	5.588

 

Big stumble for Maleficent 2, which is down more than 40% from OD. It may seem a pretty good hold, but family movies here often tend to get a 2nd Thursday hold better than their 2nd weekend hold, and a 2nd weekend hold that is better than the others (as long as weather doesn't play a role).

Joker held well on Thursday and is now down 50.5% from its previous Thursday. To bring the percentage down to 40% it needs to finally get a solid Friday rise, around 70%.

Good debuts for Downtown Abbey and One Piece Stampede. The former may even get close to a 2M OW if it's not frontloaded.

[fabiopazzo2]

160K for OP Stampede! 

[RJ 95]

Friday

 

Mal2 € 404.811 

Joker € 390.645

 

As Omni said, finally in Friday Joker increase by 68% and reach € 390.645 (-40.3 from LW) after it's weekdays constantly in 50% drop range also Mal 2 with € 404.811 with same increase like Joker.

 

Mal 2 with stronger Saturday should win this weekend again but Joker with only 40% decrease this WE doing  better than it's weekdays suggest.

 

Probably € 28-29m is feasible for Joker ?

Edited October 26, 2019 by RJ 95

[fabiopazzo2]

224k for One piece Stampede!!! Very good 

[Legion Again]

On 10/12/2019 at 12:05 AM, Thanos Legion said:

Don't do this to me Italy.

Alright, we're still on good terms    

 

Spoiler

Especially if you keep giving good grosses to Maleficent, One Piece, and Frozen 😛 

 

[RJ 95]

Saturday

 

Mal 2 € 928.167

Joker € 795.259

 

Mal 2 increase with 129%, just a bit weaker increase than LW (136%). Joker increase by 103%. Joker set for 40-41% drop from LW.  

 

[Omni]

Very good for Joker, in line with my optmistic projection that would make it finish with 29M+. Also, it's dropping 40% on its 4th week in Italy on a sunny weekend!

Maleficent 2's Friday increase was strong enough to limit the damage over the weekend.

Also, nice recovery for Downtown Abbey after a flat Friday. 395K for an increase just above 100%.

[fabiopazzo2]

On 10/26/2019 at 8:50 AM, fabiopazzo2 said:

224k for One piece Stampede!!! Very good 

+300K for Stampede! Not bad for OP movie

[Omni]

The sunny weather with pre-summer temperatures (20/25°C) had to do some damage at some point. Joker dropped 25% to "only" 584K and even Maleficent decreased (-8% to 850K), which is quite rare for a family movie.

Joker now needs no more than a 20% drop next weekend to keep the 30M alive. Schools are closed Fri-to-Sun and Thursday is Halloween, so it can't be ruled out.

[RJ 95]

21 hours ago, Omni said:

The sunny weather with pre-summer temperatures (20/25°C) had to do some damage at some point. Joker dropped 25% to "only" 584K and even Maleficent decreased (-8% to 850K), which is quite rare for a family movie.

Joker now needs no more than a 20% drop next weekend to keep the 30M alive. Schools are closed Fri-to-Sun and Thursday is Halloween, so it can't be ruled out.

Another good drop for Joker today, 40% from LW. 

Does Italy also celebrate Halloween ? Also how much it will impact box office wise ?