kitik Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 35 people had AMWTDITW in their top 15. So anyone who picked it certainly isn't alone. (20 people had Blended, and 9 people had Million Dollar Arm.) Speaking of date changes, Sex Tape moved up 7 days too. Obviously it won't make as big of a difference as Lucy moving to July from August, but it certainly shouldn't hurt Sex Tape. If nothing else, the odds of Sex Tape beating out something like Tammy have probably increased. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Regarding the SOTM, I picked Spidey in Uruguay too. Seemed like an obvious choice. I was surprised at the people picking any movie in Japan. That seems like a crapshoot to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattrek Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I was tempted to pick Uruguay, BUT Spider-Man dropped 64% in it's second weekend to 46k, Godzilla's second weekend drop was 45% to 36k. It went from having a 65,000 lead to only 10k and if X-Men didn't drop Godzilla much I doubt anything in the next few weekends would. It's still risky. It's already half the total gross of Spider-Man after 2 weeks.1st 2 weeks of Spider-Man 203k1st 2 weeks of Godzilla 158k with a better drop. 45k difference isn't insurmountable.I picked japan and Godzilla just because I know the Japanese love him and I trust Corpse to know what he's talking about. It'll be close with Spider-Man though with a higher upside potential.As I said earlier though I think that SOTM is going to screw everyone over, I think glassfairy was the only to abstain, so she might've been the smartest one of all of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkelf Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 ^^The difference between TASM2 and GZ is almost 200k now with Godzilla totaling 160k and TASM2 340k. X-Men would need a 6X multi to reach Spidey which is not happening since the late legs will be totally cut due to World Cup. And Spidey got a huge boost from May Day in its 3rd weekend when it stayed flat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I was tempted to pick Uruguay, BUT Spider-Man dropped 64% in it's second weekend to 46k, Godzilla's second weekend drop was 45% to 36k. It went from having a 65,000 lead to only 10k and if X-Men didn't drop Godzilla much I doubt anything in the next few weekends would. It's still risky. It's already half the total gross of Spider-Man after 2 weeks.1st 2 weeks of Spider-Man 203k1st 2 weeks of Godzilla 158k with a better drop. 45k difference isn't insurmountable.I picked japan and Godzilla just because I know the Japanese love him and I trust Corpse to know what he's talking about. It'll be close with Spider-Man though with a higher upside potential.As I said earlier though I think that SOTM is going to screw everyone over, I think glassfairy was the only to abstain, so she might've been the smartest one of all of us. Well, TASM2 only fell 5% the week after that, and was basically flat with a 3rd weekend 10k larger than Godzilla's second weekend. The odds of Godzilla or DOFP falling only 5% any weekend is basically nil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattrek Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 (edited) ^^The difference between TASM2 and GZ is almost 200k now with Godzilla totaling 160k and TASM2 340k. X-Men would need a 6X multi to reach Spidey which is not happening since the late legs will be totally cut due to World Cup. And Spidey got a huge boost from May Day in its 3rd weekend when it stayed flat Uruguay is unpredictable, it can be a leggy market. If the 3rd weekend drops soft 45k can be easily made up. Right after that 5% weekend drop came another 60%. If Godzilla continues drops in the 30s to 40s for it's whole run it will overtake Spidey.I'd also add that nothing in the next few weeks is really competition for Godzilla. Odds are Spidey will win, BUT it definitely isn't a no-brainer choice. It'll probably be within 25k difference. Edited May 31, 2014 by Mattrek Loves Del Toro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Uruguay is unpredictable, it can be a leggy market. If the 3rd weekend drops soft 45k can be easily made up. Right after that 5% weekend drop came another 60%. If Godzilla continues drops in the 30s to 40s for it's whole run it will overtake Spidey. Let's say Godzilla falls only 30% every weekend from last one i.e. 36k weekend. That will mean weekends of 25.2, 17.6, 12.3. The next 3 weekends added together will be equal to TASM2's 2nd weekend. Effectively no way Godzilla overtakes Spidey in Uruguay unless it sprouts legs which are out of this world IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkelf Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Uruguay is unpredictable, it can be a leggy market. If the 3rd weekend drops soft 45k can be easily made up. Right after that 5% weekend drop came another 60%. If Godzilla continues drops in the 30s to 40s for it's whole run it will overtake Spidey.I'd also add that nothing in the next few weeks is really competition for Godzilla. Odds are Spidey will win, BUT it definitely isn't a no-brainer choice. It'll probably be within 25k difference. Again, World Cup, new movies opening, and Spidey also having late legs make that virtually impossible. Cap2 and 300 opened similarly to Godzilla and X-Men and both crumbled to 200k. Maleficent and EoT will take their screens and kill them both and Spidey will win with a 100k margin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I just had a look at my choices and for some mad reason I went for Godzilla to be the lowest grossing film. I have no idea why I would do that. On the flipside, the way things are going I could actually fluke the points there, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I just had a look at my choices and for some mad reason I went for Godzilla to be the lowest grossing film. I have no idea why I would do that. On the flipside, the way things are going I could actually fluke the points there, Based on this Friday, I am convinced Godzilla will be the lowest grossing both domestic and WW. WB will push it past 200M, but it will fall short of TASM2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 Based on this Friday, I am convinced Godzilla will be the lowest grossing both domestic and WW. WB will push it past 200M, but it will fall short of TASM2. That's been my thinking too and ASM2 will get inched past 200M just a little more than godzilla does. (sadly not to the 207 I need to not lose final gross points though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 35 people had AMWTDITW in their top 15. So anyone who picked it certainly isn't alone. (20 people had Blended, and 9 people had Million Dollar Arm.) Luckily, I had none of them in my top 15. On the other hand, I have Godzilla in my top 3 making over 300M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 (edited) Luckily, I had none of them in my top 15. On the other hand, I have Godzilla in my top 3 making over 300M. I had Godzilla at $250M and Blended. Sit down. Edited May 31, 2014 by Clairezilla Hol7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 31, 2014 Author Share Posted May 31, 2014 SOTM 7/7.1 is up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 SOTM 7/7.1 is up. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 31, 2014 Author Share Posted May 31, 2014 Blame Chas. BTW...I'm accepting more ideas for SOTM's by pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmmi Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 I hope in time you will all learn to forgive me and we can be friends again 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 When are makeup questions usually? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 When are makeup questions usually? Last year I think they were in mid-August. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 SOTM 7/7.1 is up. lol, that'll be the easiest SOTM to score of all time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
