Box Office Fact or Fiction: Summer movie preview with Films, Blankments and MrPink

[grim22]

Edited April 18, 2014 by grim22

[CJohn]

I agree with MrPink on the 300M thing.

[Films]

Just quickly, half my answer is missing for question 9Here's all of it9. I think Teenage Ninja Mutant Turtles will be the big bomb of the summer. It has an awful release date, 1 week after GOTG, one week before Expendables 3 which will not be that big but will eat into it's gross a bit. The last film in this franchise grossed 54M proving there is not a public demand for another TMNT film [it was also very frontloaded] and while Michael Bay's name should boost the film, the terrible first trailer which is getting very negative reactions will hurt it. I'm predicting a 25M OW followed by a 59M total. Other films I expect to bomb are Legends Of Oz: Dorothy's Return, Mom's Night Out [neither probably getting that wide releases and both getting terrible trailer reactions], The Fluffy Movie [who's actually interested in this], Blended [too much competition] and Step Up: All In [who the fuck actually wants a fifth one].For the surprise hit, my pick is The Fault In Our Stars. The book is so popular and is one of the only films ever talked about at my school. It has a great release date on June 6 and will serve as fantastic counterprogramming to all the action and comedy fare. Shailene Woodley is becoming more and more popular especially because of Divergent and the marketing so far has been really good. Also, word of mouth should be great giving it a fantastic multiplier. I think it will open great with about 45M before having long legs to 190M. Other surprise hits I can see is Melissa McCarthy scoring another massive hit with Tammy, Neighbors because of fantastic reviews, massive buzz, great trailer and great release date and Deliver Us From Evil [the film that will end the horror slump].

Edited April 18, 2014 by FrozenFilms

[grim22]

Just quickly, half my answer is missing for question 9Here's all of it9. I think Teenage Ninja Mutant Turtles will be the big bomb of the summer. It has an awful release date, 1 week after GOTG, one week before Expendables 3 which will not be that big but will eat into it's gross a bit. The last film in this franchise grossed 54M proving there is not a public demand for another TMNT film [it was also very frontloaded] and while Michael Bay's name should boost the film, the terrible first trailer which is getting very negative reactions will hurt it. I'm predicting a 25M OW followed by a 59M total. Other films I expect to bomb are Legends Of Oz: Dorothy's Return, Mom's Night Out [neither probably getting that wide releases and both getting terrible trailer reactions], The Fluffy Movie [who's actually interested in this], Blended [too much competition] and Step Up: All In [who the fuck actually wants a fifth one].For the surprise hit, my pick is The Fault In Our Stars. The book is so popular and is one of the only films ever talked about at my school. It has a great release date on June 6 and will serve as fantastic counterprogramming to all the action and comedy fare. Shailene Woodley is becoming more and more popular especially because of Divergent and the marketing so far has been really good. Also, word of mouth should be great giving it a fantastic multiplier. I think it will open great with about 45M before having long legs to 190M. Other surprise hits I can see is Melissa McCarthy scoring another massive hit with Tammy, Neighbors because of fantastic reviews, massive buzz, great trailer and great release date and Deliver Us From Evil [the film that will end the horror slump].

 

Fixed.

[baumer]

Great job guys. Broke it all down really nicely.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Films did great.

[mahnamahna]

I wouldn't be shocked if this August is the highest attended in a long time:

GotG could top $200 million

TMNT will get past $100 million since it's the only kid-friendly movie until Boxtrolls 

Get on Up has crowd-pleasing biopic written all over it so I'm expecting $140-145 million (in between Help and Butler) 

Lucy will get the female audience so I'm giving it $90-110 million 

Into the Storm looks solid enough so $50-60 million seems likely

Expendables 3 should get $60-75  million 

The Giver and Sin City 2 should each get $40 million 

 

Add in all of the small releases getting $10-30 million and it has a shot 

[Blankments]

I voted for myself because I'm narcissistic

[BadAtGender]

Great work this week. Some fantastic analysis from all three contributors.

[MrPink]

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2014-04-24-godzilla

 

Looking good to top the original adjusted...75 million with a few weeks to go. (Vote for me, pity post)