kayumanggi Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 You know we can come up with a litany of reasons why the box office is down. Economy, movies aren't as good, weather, etc. But maybe it's just as simple as people just don't feel like going.They don't like going...because they don't have money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrestomanci Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Sorry, I should have been clearer. BD1's holds have now plateaued against New Moon's holds. What I have been looking at is BD1's cumulative total as a percentage of its non-midnight opening day, and comparing it to New Moon's through the same period. BD1 currently has made 570.3% of its opening day, while New Moon at this point had made 534.8%. That's 106.6% of New Moon's number, and after growing for the first three weeks, BD1 has now been at 106.6% of New Moon for the last 11 days. Therefore, it has plateaued. This puts it at a projected finish of $287.3 million I still don't think that really works, though I don't have time to get into it fully right now (I will PM you later though). It think it appears to have plateaued because the numbers it's adding on a daily basis at this point are fairly small and have probably been close enough to 97% of NM's daily number for the last week and a half. But your projection for the final requires the assumption that the average will continue to be around 97% of NM's for the rest of its run, which actually seems pretty unlikely given the recent trend. The fact is that where BD1 was actually higher than NM earlier in its run, if you look at the daily numbers, it seems to have been losing ground significantly recently (with Tuesday and Saturday being outliers for easily explained reasons). That effect is more masked in your calculations because of your use of cumulative numbers, but if it continues it will most certainly impact the final gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
