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Gopher

Weekend Actuals (12/16-18)

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Absolute best case scenario for Alvin is Yogi Bear's multiplier, which would bring the movie towards 140 million. I'm expecting 120-130 million, half of the Squeakquel's admissions. Sherlock doesn't have a chance at 200m, if it's really lucky it'll recover next week and get past 160m.

Unless Wednesday really surprises us, MI4 is poised to be the event movie of Christmas after a terrific launch this weekend and what feels like some great word of mouth. Dragon Tattoo's a wild card from my perspective. Tintin and Zoo will do more modest numbers. War Horse will do well but not huge or anything.

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Absolute best case scenario for Alvin is Yogi Bear's multiplier, which would bring the movie towards 140 million. I'm expecting 120-130 million, half of the Squeakquel's admissions. Sherlock doesn't have a chance at 200m, if it's really lucky it'll recover next week and get past 160m.

Unless Wednesday really surprises us, MI4 is poised to be the event movie of Christmas after a terrific launch this weekend and what feels like some great word of mouth. Dragon Tattoo's a wild card from my perspective. Tintin and Zoo will do more modest numbers. War Horse will do well but not huge or anything.

I think MI4 was helped quite a bit by TDKR.
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Absolute best case scenario for Alvin is Yogi Bear's multiplier, which would bring the movie towards 140 million. I'm expecting 120-130 million, half of the Squeakquel's admissions. Sherlock doesn't have a chance at 200m, if it's really lucky it'll recover next week and get past 160m.

Unless Wednesday really surprises us, MI4 is poised to be the event movie of Christmas after a terrific launch this weekend and what feels like some great word of mouth. Dragon Tattoo's a wild card from my perspective. Tintin and Zoo will do more modest numbers. War Horse will do well but not huge or anything.

about sums it up perfectly and a long long way until next Summer
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Can Sherlock still reach 200M? Does it have any hope?

Highly, highly unlikely. The Family Stone was the biggest opener on the equivalent weekend in 2005 (the last time the dates lined up the same way) and it got a multiplier of about 4.8, that's despite being in a genre which often has better legs than action/adventure movies and releasing in a time when there was less front-loading in general. National Treasure 2, perhaps the most comparable movie with a similar release date also had a multiplier slightly under 5 and that was still 4 years ago.SH2's best hope is actually its audience overlap with MI4. If the overlap is significant, it's possible that MI4 with its IMAX only (okay, large format, not just IMAX -- but you know what I mean) opening and TDKR prologue in select theaters was seen as more of an event this weekend, so people decided to see that instead and hold off on SH2. That could lead to better than expected legs for SH2. But even then, $200M would be very tough. Edited by Chrestomanci
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