Ezen Baklattan Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Man, I forgot that Sherlock Holmes and The Squeakuel had Avatantic to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Poop usually gets flushed down the toilet. Just sayin'. :lol: :lol:Well, that`s exactly what I`ve been saying for some LOTR actors` careers and people start to bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrestomanci Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Avatar was a much bigger competitor to SH1 than MI4 is to SH2, so that rule doesn't really work...That doesn't necessarily follow. There are a couple of key differences in the situation, even ignoring the holiday schedule, which seem to me to have favored SH1. First of all, SH1 was facing the second weekend of Avatar, not the first. And as big as Avatar's opening weekend was (despite a major snowstorm), that means there were alot of people who had already seen Avatar and would be looking for something new to see on Christmas weekend. SH2, meanwhile, had to face the initial showings of MI4, so it was a choice between two new things for everyone and MI4, in large screen formats only and with TDKR prologue in select theaters certainly seems like more of an event than SH2, which could easily be caught up on later.Now, that's not to deny that Avatar certainly was a much bigger competitor; even though it was its second weekend, it was getting a ton of sellouts. The overflow of those sellouts might well have prompted alot of people who wouldn't have seen SH on its first weekend (if at all) to see it because they couldn't see their first choice movie. So while Avatar would have drawn people away from SH1, it also fed people back into it. MI4, on the other hand, did very well in IMAX this past weekend, but I haven't seen sellout reports of the kind we saw with Avatar. It looks to me like shows mostly sold well, but not to the point where they'd create alot of overflow.In any case, it can't be denied that MI4 in IMAX drew off a chunk of the audience that might have opted to see SH2 this weekend if MI4 hadn't been released. Whether that chunk of audience will come back to SH2 later and whether it's of sufficient size to help significantly boost the legs of SH2, which are already likely to be better than those of SH1 due to the holiday schedule, remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 SH2&Shitmunks benefitted from spillovers.Since Avatar was a perfect 4 quadrant, it shared target audience with both movies so people went to see either depending on kids or lack thereof. Potter laways jumped when LOTR opened because it was the second choice fantasy flick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 12.785m for MI4. -17% Sunday drop, pretty good considering everything else dropped high 20s/low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 You know we can come up with a litany of reasons why the box office is down. Economy, movies aren't as good, weather, etc. But maybe it's just as simple as people just don't feel like going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 12.785m for MI4. -17% Sunday drop, pretty good considering everything else dropped high 20s/low 30s.Hurray for 17%. Very good drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ariadne Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Looking at things objectively, I think it's more a case of SH1 over performing than SH2 under performing. SH1 made way more money than you would expect from a movie with mixed WOM, it definitely benefited from Avatar and RDJ's popularity at the time. SH2 will probably end up with a more realistic solid total - under 200m but still decent. If only it wasn't for Guy Ritchie's shitty directing and the bad writing this franchise would have real potential. I liked the last one but didn't love it. I have no desire to see this one in theatres. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 MI 4 went down too. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 (edited) Dismal for Sherlock and Alvin. I'm tracking Sherlock against National Treasure 2 and Alvin against the first Alvin film (which opened a week earlier)Sherlock is looking at $182-187 million and should be around $5.6 million for MondayAlvin is looking at $109-118 million, and should be around $3.2 million for Monday Edited December 20, 2011 by spizzer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll admit I'm not entirely sure on how to predict MI4's Monday, so I'll just guess at a 40% drop down to $2.4 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BD1's holds against New Moon have started to plateau. I have it currently on pace to finish at $287.3 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'm revising my Alvin projected range to $128-135 million, just did a quick reevaluation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forg Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Three straight disappointments for Warner Brothers [Happy Feet 2, New Year's Eve and Sherlock Holmes!] Summer was good for them but fall is really giving them a difficult time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Three straight disappointments for Warner Brothers [Happy Feet 2, New Year's Eve and Sherlock Holmes!] Summer was good for them but fall is really giving them a difficult timeThink we'll be hearing about a Harry Potter reboot a whole lot sooner now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrestomanci Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 BD1's holds against New Moon have started to plateau. I have it currently on pace to finish at $287.3 millionDo you really think so? This weekend BD1 was 4.8% lower than NM's equivalent weekend; last weekend BD1 was only 1.8% lower than NM. You also need to be aware that since NM was a 2009 film its weekend was affected by the same major snowstorm that probably dampened Avatar's opening. I would guess that that's part of why BD1 had both a significantly bigger Saturday increase and a significantly bigger Sunday drop than NM this weekend. Another major factor here, of course, is the holiday scheduling -- this weekend was as far from Christmas as it's possible for the last full weekend before Christmas to be, which means fewer people having/taking Monday off, which means less well attended Sunday evening shows and a bigger Sunday drop (and a bigger Monday drop as well, in all likelihood). So I don't think that BD1 is necessarily losing ground on NM as badly as just comparing the Sunday numbers would imply (BD1's Sunday number was 12.6% below NM's), but I also don't think it's quite leveled off against it yet. But it's going to be very difficult to judge over the next couple of weeks, because the differing holiday schedules are really going to mess with the comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Do you really think so? This weekend BD1 was 4.8% lower than NM's equivalent weekend; last weekend BD1 was only 1.8% lower than NM. You also need to be aware that since NM was a 2009 film its weekend was affected by the same major snowstorm that probably dampened Avatar's opening. I would guess that that's part of why BD1 had both a significantly bigger Saturday increase and a significantly bigger Sunday drop than NM this weekend. Another major factor here, of course, is the holiday scheduling -- this weekend was as far from Christmas as it's possible for the last full weekend before Christmas to be, which means fewer people having/taking Monday off, which means less well attended Sunday evening shows and a bigger Sunday drop (and a bigger Monday drop as well, in all likelihood). So I don't think that BD1 is necessarily losing ground on NM as badly as just comparing the Sunday numbers would imply (BD1's Sunday number was 12.6% below NM's), but I also don't think it's quite leveled off against it yet. But it's going to be very difficult to judge over the next couple of weeks, because the differing holiday schedules are really going to mess with the comparisons. Sorry, I should have been clearer. BD1's holds have now plateaued against New Moon's holds. What I have been looking at is BD1's cumulative total as a percentage of its non-midnight opening day, and comparing it to New Moon's through the same period. BD1 currently has made 570.3% of its opening day, while New Moon at this point had made 534.8%. That's 106.6% of New Moon's number, and after growing for the first three weeks, BD1 has now been at 106.6% of New Moon for the last 11 days. Therefore, it has plateaued. This puts it at a projected finish of $287.3 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Will we be getting Monday numbers anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/daily/2011-12-20Just keep refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/daily/2011-12-20Just keep refreshing That will take some time. I was hoping for some early twitter updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
