fmpro Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 and we had some 80m predicts! That was crazy... 55-65 were realistic..40 mill is,..... Well.... Shit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Will a SH3 happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 looking at this historically, its just bad as welltotal # of tickets sold this weekend will be really lowremember that MI4 is in mostly IMax lowering tickets sold as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrestomanci Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 $200M was barely attained last time with a $60M opening how is it in the picture now for SH2?I don't know if this was aimed at me or at Fake, but I'm going to address it anyway (even though I think we may have had this same discussion in another thread). First of all, SH1 didn't barely hit $200M, it was over by a good $9M+, barely hitting it would have been getting over by less than $1M, the sort of situation where people on BOM liked to cry "fudge." Secondly, the multiplier for SH1 is not particularly indicative of the multiplier for SH2 because SH1 was front-loaded by a couple of factors which don't apply to SH2. First of all, SH1's OW included Christmas Day and the day after, both very strong moviegoing days in the US, while SH2 just had a basically ordinary weekend. Secondly, Avatar was selling out left, right and center, creating overflow to other movies, and SH1 would have been the newest movie appealing to a similar audience -- SH2 could have seen a similar but more limited effect if MI4 had been selling out its shows, but from the crowd reports I've seen it looks like shows were full, but not generally sold out.Now that doesn't mean that I think SH2 has any realistic shot at $200M at this point. I think its chances are microscopically small, in fact. But I just don't think that the legs of SH1 are a good means of judging that, given the differing circumstances under which the two movies opened. That's why in my earlier post I referenced two other movies, one which opened the last time the dates aligned this way and another which is similar to SH2 in terms of genre and being a sequel and had a similar release date. That neither of those movies got a multiplier of 5 is, I think, much stronger evidence that it would be nigh impossible for SH2 to hit $200M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcalcagn Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Does anyone think the million or so people who saw Mission Impossible would've gone to Sherlock Holmes?That would've brought the total closer to $50M; I think everyone just really didn't take into account that Mission Impossible was going after the EXACT same audience and it wasn't going to have the Christmas Day boost.Christmas Day was on a Friday for God's sake! The BEST day for it to have been on. There was always going to be a dropoff; in context, a third drop from a film that opened on Christmas isn't THAT bad.$170M+ total is definitely in the cards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Avatar was a much bigger competitor to SH1 than MI4 is to SH2, so that rule doesn't really work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 That is so awful it's not even funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 MI4 will go down quite a lot. The studio projected a slim -13% for Sunday, which is just not happening. Sunday should be more like -30% from Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 MI4 will go down quite a lot. The studio projected a slim -13% for Sunday, which is just not happening. Sunday should be more like -30% from Saturday.Holidays+IMAX makes it possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Holidays+IMAX makes it possible.Maybe. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Still waiting on Paramount... 1 Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $39,637,079 -- 3,703 -- $10,704 $39,637,079 1 Warner Bros. 2 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $23,244,744 -- 3,723 -- $6,244 $23,244,744 1 Fox 3 New Year's Eve $7,310,413 -44% 3,505 0 $2,086 $24,716,167 2 Warner Bros. / New Line 4 The Sitter $4,608,681 -53% 2,752 2 $1,675 $17,929,987 2 Fox 5 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1 $4,197,893 -46% 2,958 -646 $1,419 $266,327,974 5 Summit 6 Arthur Christmas $3,554,286 -45% 2,929 -343 $1,213 $38,501,631 4 Sony / Columbia 7 The Muppets $3,520,926 -50% 2,808 -520 $1,254 $70,994,571 4 Disney 8 Jack and Jill $1,228,843 -60% 1,910 -877 $643 $70,506,629 6 Sony / Columbia 9 Happy Feet Two $1,077,329 -71% 1,780 -1060 $605 $58,909,873 5 Warner Bros. 10 Tower Heist $901,025 -62% 1,315 -754 $685 $75,788,740 7 Universal 11 Immortals $851,371 -65% 1,216 -1083 $700 $81,889,376 6 Relativity Media The Descendants $3,268,357 -25% 878 2 $3,723 $28,645,909 5 Fox Searchlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 SH2 can't even crack the 40M. Bodes well for Wrath of the Titans, GI Joe 2 and Ghost Rider 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 SH2 can't even crack the 40M. Bodes well for Wrath of the Titans, GI Joe 2 and Ghost Rider 2...Yoa are sarcastic, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Sherlock didn't even make $40m? Epic fail, WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 wow SH2 did not make 40M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Don't forget about how much of a Fail Happy Feet 2 is. 71% drop? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 It's not even worth getting upset how bad the box office is, it is what it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishstick Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 [*]BD went down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 [*]BD went down. Poop usually gets flushed down the toilet. Just sayin'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 This is late, even for Paramount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
